尽管煤炭需求淡季特征进一步显现，电厂日耗上涨无力，但由于进口煤较国内煤价严重倒挂，性价比问题使得部分电厂对内贸煤采购需求有所增加。上周四开始，环渤海港口下锚船出现增加趋势，港口变之前的持续垒库转为平稳运行。

Although the characteristics of the coal demand off-season have become more pronounced, the daily consumption of power plants has failed to increase significantly. However, due to the significant price disparity between imported coal and domestic coal, the issue of cost-effectiveness has led some power plants to increase their demand for domestic coal. Since last Thursday, the number of anchored ships at the ports along the Bohai Sea has shown an increasing trend. The situation at the ports has shifted from the previous continuous accumulation of inventory to a stable operation.

在国际形势影响下，上周后半程，煤价出现上涨。首先，受中东地区战争影响，国际能源价格上涨，其中，石油价格上涨拉高国内终端采购成本，化工品涨价使得国内化工终端对煤价上涨可接受度提高。

Under the influence of the international situation, in the latter part of last week, the price of coal rose. Firstly, due to the war in the Middle East, international energy prices increased. Among them, the rise in oil prices raised the cost of domestic terminal purchases, and the increase in the prices of chemical products made domestic chemical terminals more tolerant of the rise in coal prices.

其次，部分电厂处于补库和提卡需要，叠加前期“买涨不买落”的电厂着急采购，对市场煤需求增加。再次，印尼煤年度生产配额还未完全确定，斋月和雨季影响下，短期出口货源有限；叠加进口煤成本倒挂，华东华南电厂询货采购内贸中低卡煤，拉动煤价继续上涨。

Secondly, some power plants are in need of replenishing stocks and extending their contracts, and in addition, due to the urgency of purchasing by power plants that were previously reluctant to buy when prices rose, the demand for market coal has increased. Furthermore, the annual production quota for Indonesian coal has not been fully determined yet. Under the influence of Ramadan and the rainy season, the short-term export supply is limited; coupled with the situation where the cost of imported coal is negative, power plants in East China and South China are inquiring and purchasing domestic medium-low calorific coal, which has further driven the coal price to continue rising.

同时，也要看到，国内需求疲弱，煤价上涨支撑力度并不强，等到出于提卡和改善煤种结构的电厂扫货完毕之后，环渤海港口下锚船数量将减少。

At the same time, it should also be noted that domestic demand is weak, and the upward trend in coal prices does not provide strong support. Once power plants have finished their purchases for the purpose of upgrading technology and improving the coal type structure, the number of ships anchored at the ports along the Bohai Sea will decrease.

四月上旬，下游电厂机组检修开始之后，煤价有可能出现涨势趋缓的现象。首先，国内煤炭供应充足稳定，四月份大秦线检修期间，张唐线、朔黄线开足马力，补充资源，促使环渤海港口整体库存下降并不多。

In early April, after the maintenance work of the downstream power plant units began, the coal price is likely to show a trend of slowing increase. Firstly, the domestic coal supply is abundant and stable. During the maintenance period of the Dacheng Line in April, the Zhangtang Line and Shaoxiong Line operated at full capacity to replenish resources, which led to a relatively small decrease in the overall inventory at the ports along the Bohai Rim.

其次，国内需求转弱，除化工刚需较好外，北方供暖期结束，内陆电厂耗煤需求下降，采购减少。四月是传统用煤淡季，电厂将展开机组检修，电煤需求还有进一步下降的预期。

Secondly, domestic demand has weakened. Apart from the chemical industry which has relatively stable demand, the heating period in the north has ended, and the coal consumption demand of inland power plants has decreased as purchasing activities have reduced. April is a traditional off-season for coal use, and power plants will carry out unit maintenance, which is expected to lead to further decline in the demand for thermal coal.

再次，环渤海港口去库缓慢。环渤海港口库存仍在高位，需求存在减弱趋势，到港拉煤船舶减少，煤价上涨支撑力度不大。

Again, the coal transportation from the ports along the Bohai Sea is proceeding slowly. The inventories at these ports remain at a high level, and there is a weakening trend in demand. The number of coal-carrying ships arriving at the ports has decreased, and the upward pressure on coal prices is not significant.

值得注意的是，中东地区急剧升级的地缘政治冲突，已成为主导全球能源市场走向的关键变量。这场冲突通过切断关键天然气供应、推高原油价格及航运成本，引发了全球范围内的“能源替代”效应，导致国际动力煤价格急剧飙升。

It is worth noting that the escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have become a key variable determining the direction of the global energy market. This conflict has triggered a "energy substitution" effect worldwide by cutting off key gas supplies, pushing up oil prices and shipping costs, resulting in a sharp increase in international thermal coal prices.

然而，由于我国煤炭市场供需基本盘稳固，长协供应稳定及时，造成市场煤价格走势与国际市场呈现出明显的“分道扬镳”的特点。

However, due to the stable basic supply and demand situation in China's coal market and the stable and timely supply of long-term contracts, the price trend of market coal has shown a distinct "separation" from that of the international market.

短期内，国际煤价的高位运行将持续，国内煤价虽存在上行可能；但在用煤淡季到来，各环节库存高位，长协稳步兑现的大背景下，即使进口煤有明显减量，但国内市场供需宽松格局并未发生更本性改变，铁路进车高位，环渤海港口和电厂库存偏高伴随着沿海市场，煤价涨幅相对温和。

In the short term, the high level of international coal prices will continue. Although domestic coal prices may rise, in the context of the arrival of the off-season for coal usage, high inventories at all levels, and the steady fulfillment of long-term contracts, even if the import of coal significantly decreases, the general situation of loose supply and demand in the domestic market has not fundamentally changed. With high inbound volumes at railway stations, high inventories at the Bohai Rim ports and power plants, and along with the coastal market, the increase in coal prices is relatively moderate.