国际上， 局势还在蔓延，有传言某些国家要派地面部队，如果战争几周后还是持续蔓延，中东产油量还会下滑，石油短缺的危机就会很明显，继而带动煤炭等能源继续涨价，通胀逻辑显现，大宗估值在抬升;

Internationally, the situation is still spreading. There are rumors that some countries will send ground troops. If the war continues to escalate in a few weeks, the oil production in the Middle East will further decline, and the crisis of oil shortage will become more obvious. This will lead to a continuous increase in the prices of other energy sources such as coal, and the inflation logic will emerge. The valuations of bulk commodities will also rise.

国内方面，会议已结束，会后提的最多的是建立全国统一大市场，继续深入推进发内卷，整体上看，宏观消息炒作告一段落，下周国内消息会减少，主要还是看国际影响。

Domestically, the meeting has concluded. The most frequently mentioned topic after the meeting was the establishment of a unified national market and the further promotion of domestic circulation. Overall, the hype over macroeconomic news has come to an end. Next week, there will be fewer domestic news reports, and we will mainly focus on the international impact.

煤炭做为替代能源，突然就变得很抢手。由于伊朗战争导致全球能源市场出现混乱，煤炭价格大幅上涨，印尼将允许矿商提高煤炭产量。

As an alternative energy source, coal has suddenly become very sought-after. Due to the Iran war causing chaos in the global energy market, the price of coal has risen sharply. Indonesia will allow miners to increase coal production.

印尼协调经济部长阿里朗加·哈拉托周四表示，鉴于中东地区冲突的不断升级，政府将提高煤矿工人的生产配额。他还称，政府正在研究对这种化石燃料征收出口税，以增加国家财政收入。

Indonesian Minister of Coordination for Economy Ali Rangga Harato said on Thursday that due to the escalating conflicts in the Middle East, the government will increase the production quotas for coal miners. He also stated that the government is studying the imposition of an export tax on this fossil fuel to increase the country's fiscal revenue.

作为全球最大的煤炭出口国，这一举措表明政府正愈发积极地采取行动应对能源市场的动荡局面，与此前限制产量以支撑价格的政策形成了鲜明的反差。随着各国为替代天然气而增加煤炭的使用以发电，需求预计将会上升。

As the world's largest coal exporter, this move indicates that the government is increasingly taking proactive measures to address the volatile situation in the energy market. It contrasts sharply with the previous policy of restricting production to support prices. As countries increase the use of coal for power generation in an effort to replace natural gas, demand is expected to rise.

原料市场，宏观，市场监管总局召开2026年反垄断工作会议，会议强调加力破除地方保护与市场分割，规范市场竞争秩序，深入整治“内卷式”竞争。

The raw material market, at the macro level, the State Administration for Market Regulation held a 2026 anti-monopoly work conference. The meeting emphasized intensifying efforts to eliminate local protection and market segmentation, standardizing market competition order, and thoroughly rectifying "internal competition" behavior.

供应方面，蒙煤通关维持高位，洗煤厂开工上调，精煤小幅去库;下游焦企开工持稳，焦煤累库，铁水产量上调。现货方面，唐山蒙5#精煤报1435元/吨，折盘面1350元/吨。

In terms of supply, the clearance of Mongolian coal remains at a high level, the operation of coal washing plants has increased, and the inventory of refined coal has decreased slightly; the downstream coking enterprises maintain stable production, coking coal has accumulated inventory, and the output of pig iron has increased. In the spot market, the price of Mongolian 5# refined coal in Tangshan is reported at 1435 yuan per ton, converted to the futures market it is 1350 yuan per ton.

市场方面，山西地区煤矿出货好转，竞拍溢价增多，市场活跃度回升，部分地区焦炭有提涨预期;河北煤矿供应增加，库存压力不大，炼焦煤价格稳中有涨。

In the market, the sales volume of coal mines in Shanxi region has improved, the bidding premiums have increased, the market activity has rebounded, and there is an expectation of price hikes for coke in some areas; the supply of coal mines in Hebei has increased, and the inventory pressure is not significant, so the price of coking coal has remained stable with an upward trend.

市场本周冲高回落，宏观炒作减弱，产业端矛盾有抬升预期，但周五晚间双焦暴涨，很有可能改变成材短期的运行逻辑，印尼将提高煤炭产量并征收出口税，这一举措表明政府正愈发积极地采取行动应对能源市场的动荡局面，近期跟随天然气和原油，煤炭价格开始补涨;

The market rose and then fell this week. Macro speculation weakened, and there is an expectation that the contradictions in the industrial sector will intensify. However, on Friday evening, the prices of two types of coking coal soared, which is likely to change the short-term operating logic of raw materials. Indonesia will increase coal production and impose export taxes. This move indicates that the government is increasingly actively taking actions to address the turmoil in the energy market. Recently, following natural gas and crude oil, the prices of coal have begun to catch up with the price increases.

对于下周，目前市场的焦点再次回到中东局势带来的影响，国际能源署(IEA)周五发出严厉警告，涉及伊朗的持续冲突可能引发全球石油市场史上最大规模的供应中断，海湾地区石油和天然气的正常流通或许需要六个月时间才能恢复。

For the coming week, the current focus of the market is once again on the impact of the situation in the Middle East. The International Energy Agency (IEA) issued a stern warning on Friday, stating that the ongoing conflict involving Iran could lead to the largest supply disruption in the global oil market in history. The normal flow of oil and gas in the Gulf region may take up to six months to resume.

油价连续大涨，继而带动整个大宗商品估值继续抬升，对原料有明显的带动作用;成本驱动逻辑再次出现，行情往上选择突破就意味着上涨趋势还没结束，预计整体上会震荡偏强一些

Oil prices have continued to rise, which in turn has driven the valuation of all commodities to continue to increase, having a significant impact on raw materials; the cost-driven logic has reappeared. A upward breakthrough in the market indicates that the uptrend has not yet ended. It is expected that the overall market will remain volatile but with a stronger trend.

综合来看，当下主要是受中东局势影响，油价始终偏强，带动了整个大宗商品估值还在继续抬升，特别是对原料的驱动很明显，盘面上短期试探了3100整数后，并未破位继续下行，意味着行情的上涨还没结束;受双焦带动，预计下周还是容易再次出现上冲，只是力度要弱于原料，产业驱动持续性不够，节奏上预计还像上周一样先强后回落，整体上涨10-20元为主。

Overall, at present, the main factor is the situation in the Middle East. Oil prices remain strong, which has driven the valuation of all commodities to continue to rise. Especially, the driving force on raw materials is very obvious. On the market, it briefly tested the 3100 mark but did not break through and continue to decline. This means that the upward trend of the market has not ended. Driven by double coking coal, it is expected that next week there will be another upward push, but the strength will be weaker than that of raw materials. The industrial driving force is not strong enough, and the rhythm is expected to be similar to last week, starting strong and then falling back. The overall increase is mainly around 10-20 yuan.