维持了整整两周涨势的港口动力煤价格，即将趋稳运行。中国煤炭资源网数据显示，至8月12日，CCI5500报收于860元/吨、CCI5000为771元/吨、CCI4500为686元/吨，均较前一期上涨1元/吨;7月30日上涨以来，累计涨幅分别为33元/吨、35元/吨、44元/吨。

The price of port-cooked thermal coal, which had been on an upward trend for a full two weeks, is about to stabilize. According to data from China Coal Resources Network, as of August 12th, the CCI5500 price was reported at 860 yuan/ton, the CCI5000 price at 771 yuan/ton, and the CCI4500 price at 686 yuan/ton, all of which were 1 yuan/ton higher than the previous period; since the 30th of July, the cumulative increases were 33 yuan/ton, 35 yuan/ton, and 44 yuan/ton respectively.

本轮上涨主要受低卡煤资源偏紧影响，但终端参与度依旧有限，因而早在涨势刚起之时，市场就普遍认为整体涨幅有限。但实际持续时间却有点超预期，更多的或受北方港库存大幅去化所带动。

This round of rise was mainly influenced by the shortage of low-calorie coal resources. However, the participation of the end-users remained limited. Therefore, even when the upward trend began, the market generally believed that the overall increase would be limited. But the actual duration was somewhat beyond expectations. More likely, it was driven by the significant reduction in inventory at northern ports.

中国煤炭资源网数据显示，8月12日，北方四港(秦皇岛港、京唐港、曹妃甸杠、黄骅港)合计存煤2676.7万吨，较7月21日3156.4万吨的年内高点减少了479.7万吨，降幅15.20%，去化十分明显。

According to data from China Coal Resources Network, on August 12th, the combined coal stockpile at the four northern ports (Qinhuangdao Port, Jingtang Port, Caofeidian Port, and Huanghua Port) stood at 26.767 million tons, a decrease of 4.797 million tons compared to the year-end high of 31.564 million tons on July 21st, representing a decline of 15.20%. The coal depletion was quite significant.

据本网了解，北方港库存减量如此显著，原因或主要表现在两个方面。其一，高温影响下，居民制冷用电大幅提升，火电托底增强，电厂日耗得到提振，库存减少之下，补库需求有所增加。数据显示，8月12日，沿海六大电厂日耗96.98万吨，较上月同期(下同)增长23.97%;库存1400.7万吨，下降4.17%;可用天数14.4天，减少4.2天。

According to our website's understanding, the significant reduction in inventory at the Northern Port can mainly be attributed to two factors. Firstly, under the influence of high temperatures, residents' electricity consumption for cooling has increased significantly, strengthening the role of thermal power generation as a stabilizer. This has boosted the daily consumption of power plants, leading to a decrease in inventory and an increase in the demand for replenishment. Data shows that on August 12th, the daily consumption of the six major coastal power plants was 969,800 tons, an increase of 23.97% compared to the same period last month; the inventory was 14,007,000 tons, a decrease of 4.17%; and the available days were 14.4 days, a reduction of 4.2 days.

其二，产地供应偏紧，叠加价格坚挺，发运倒挂明显之下，铁路运量相对偏低，致使港口调入在较长时间内处于中位水平，集港资源相对较少，导致库存去化速度变相加快。

Secondly, due to the tight supply from the production areas, coupled with the firm prices and the significant price gap between shipment and purchase, the railway transportation volume is relatively low. As a result, the port's inbound volume remains at a medium level for a considerable period of time, and the available port storage resources are relatively scarce. This has led to a more accelerated pace of inventory reduction.

此外，部分投机贸易商的趁机采购，以及部分有成交的贸易商受限于产地发运而选择直接在港口拿货，也在一定程度上加快了港口现有货源的出清。

Furthermore, the opportunistic purchasing by some speculative traders, as well as the fact that some trading companies that have completed transactions are constrained by the shipping from the source locations and thus choose to pick up the goods directly at the port, have also to some extent accelerated the clearance of the existing goods at the port.

不过随着价格的持续上涨，加之终端库存依旧维持在安全范围之内，需求释放整体依旧有限，而投机贸易商的采购也趋于谨慎，继续上行的支撑逐渐减弱，贸易商报价上调幅度逐渐收窄，止盈盘出货意愿增强，市场情况有所回落，港口动力煤市场渐趋稳定。

However, as prices continue to rise and the terminal inventory remains within a safe range, the overall demand remains limited. The purchasing behavior of speculative traders has also become more cautious. The support for continued upward movement is gradually weakening. The increase in trading prices has gradually narrowed, and the willingness to sell for profit has strengthened. The market situation has somewhat declined, and the port coal market for power generation has gradually stabilized.

尽管如此，市场参与者对后市的看法仍然普遍向好，认为上涨的可能性依旧不小。依托因素主要表现在以下几方面。

Nevertheless, market participants' outlook for the future remains generally positive, believing that the possibility of an increase remains considerable. The underlying factors mainly manifest in the following aspects.

第一，主产地煤矿长期受到安监影响，产能释放受限，供应偏紧，同时煤矿价格持续高位运行，港口流向发运成本倒挂严重，贸易商发运积极性不高，港口调入量长期处于中位水平，港口库存持续下滑。北方港口库存的持续下降引发市场对后期供应短缺的担忧。

First, the main production coal mines have been affected by safety supervision, which has restricted their production capacity release, resulting in a tight supply situation. At the same time, the coal prices have remained at a high level, causing a significant imbalance between the cost of port transportation and the price at the port. The enthusiasm of traders for shipping has been low, and the volume of coal imported into the ports has remained at a medium level for a long time, leading to a continuous decline in port inventories. The continuous decline in inventory at northern ports has raised concerns among the market about potential supply shortages in the future.

第二，产地煤矿销售较好，产量偏低，库存水平处于低位，叠加中转港及终端库存的同步去化，意味着整个社会库存都在集体下降。后续这一情况持续的话，价格易涨难跌。

Secondly, the sales of coal from the production mines are good, but the output is low and the inventory level is at a low point. Coupled with the simultaneous reduction of inventory at the transshipment ports and at the terminals, it indicates that the overall inventory in the market is collectively decreasing. If this situation persists in the future, prices are likely to rise rather than fall.

第三，发运成本支撑依旧明显，贸易商出货后较难补货，所以持货意愿偏强，降价出货意愿不高，一旦市场利好有所显现，报价极易上调。

Thirdly, the cost of shipment remains a significant factor. After traders make sales, it is difficult for them to restock, so they have a strong desire to hold the goods. They are not inclined to sell at a reduced price. Once market favorable signs emerge, the quotations are likely to rise very easily.

目前来看，本轮涨势停歇后，大概率将僵持一段时间，之后的走势待看产地供应恢复情况，以及中下游库存的走势。

At present, after the current rally pauses, it is highly likely to remain stagnant for a period of time. The subsequent trend will depend on the recovery of supply from the production areas and the movement of inventory in the mid-to-lower reaches of the supply chain.