随着台风影响逐步消退，副热带高压势力有所增强，全国整体气温有所回升，居民制冷负荷快速增加，江苏、四川、湖南、湖北等多地电网打破今年以来的负荷纪录。CCTD高频监测数据显示，最近一周沿海八省与内陆十七省电厂日均耗煤量环比分别增长6%与7.5%，需求改善信号逐步增强。

As the impact of the typhoon gradually subsided, the strength of the subtropical high pressure increased, and the overall temperature across the country rose. The cooling load for residents rose rapidly, and the power grids in many places such as Jiangsu, Sichuan, Hunan, and Hubei broke their load records set this year. The CCTD high-frequency monitoring data shows that in the past week, the daily average coal consumption of power plants in eight coastal provinces and seventeen inland provinces increased by 6% and 7.5% respectively compared with the previous week, indicating a gradual improvement in demand.

从区域表现来看，华东地区需求恢复相对较快，部分终端已适度加快补库，市场刚需采购有所释放。截至7月13日，CCTD监测数据显示，华东地区港口库存周环比下降3.81%。华南地区高温强度相对不足，同时，港口滞港及卸货船舶排队现象尚未完全缓解，进一步限制了终端采购节奏，华南地区港口库存周环比增加4.93%;截至7月16日，广州港库存升至338.2万吨，较上月同期增加31万吨，反映出区域供需仍相对宽松。

From the regional performance perspective, the demand in the East China region has recovered relatively quickly. Some terminals have moderately accelerated their replenishment efforts, and the market's necessary purchasing activities have been somewhat released. As of July 13th, the data monitored by CCTD shows that the port inventory in the East China region decreased by 3.81% week-on-week. The intensity of high temperatures in the South China region is relatively insufficient. Meanwhile, the queues of ships waiting at the ports and those waiting for unloading have not been completely alleviated, which further restricts the purchasing pace of terminals. The port inventory in the South China region increased by 4.93% week-on-week as of July 16th. The inventory at Guangzhou Port rose to 338.2 million tons, an increase of 31 million tons compared to the same period last month, reflecting that the regional supply and demand are still relatively宽松.

与此同时，供应端持续收紧进一步增强了市场支撑。受安全监管持续趋严影响，主产区煤矿生产受限情况的恢复依然慢于市场预期。国家统计局数据显示，6月份全国原煤产量为38088万吨，同比下降9.7%。

Meanwhile, the continuous tightening of supply has further strengthened market support. Due to the continuous tightening of safety regulations, the recovery of production restrictions in major coal-producing areas has still been slower than expected. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in June, the national coal output was 380.88 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.7%.

具体就本轮上涨而言，仍存在不确定性因素或将影响上行空间和持续性。首先是港口和终端电厂库存依然明显偏高且近期去库尚不明显，因此市场氛围虽已明显改善，但终端采购尚未全面放量。其次，高温天气仍存在不确定性，近期副热带高压势力尚不稳固，近一周沿海八省日均耗煤量同比依然偏低3.7%。

Specifically regarding this round of rise, there are still uncertain factors that may affect the upward potential and sustainability. Firstly, the inventories at ports and terminal power plants remain significantly high and the recent inventory reduction has not been obvious. Therefore, although the market atmosphere has significantly improved, terminal purchases have not yet fully ramped up. Secondly, the high-temperature weather remains uncertain. The recent subtropical high pressure is not yet stable, and the average daily coal consumption in the eight coastal provinces over the past week is still 3.7% lower year-on-year.

最后，进口煤的补充作用依然明显，根据海关总署最新数据，2026年上半年我国累计进口煤炭22540万吨，已实现累计同比微增，预计下半年伴随着印尼供应的改善，进口煤源有望进一步增加。

Finally, the supplementary role of imported coal remains significant. According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, in the first half of 2026, China imported a total of 225.4 million tons of coal, achieving a slight year-on-year increase. It is expected that with the improvement in supply from Indonesia in the second half of the year, the supply of imported coal is likely to increase further.

尽管存在不确定性，但在上述积极因素推动下，近期港口和产地煤价均迎来反弹，尤其在日耗提升更明显以及供应偏低的加持下，产地煤价涨势更为强劲，市场情绪改善明显。综合来看，在煤炭消费即将进入旺季之际，日耗将确定性改善，同时叠加产地供应受限预计仍将持续，煤炭价格预计整体偏向上行。

Despite the uncertainties, driven by the aforementioned positive factors, the prices of coal at ports and production sites have both rebounded recently. Especially with the more significant increase in daily consumption and the relatively low supply, the price rise at production sites has been even more robust. The market sentiment has improved significantly. In summary, as coal consumption is about to enter the peak season, daily consumption is expected to improve positively. Additionally, considering the expected continued shortage of supply at production sites, the overall coal prices are expected to trend upward.