印尼煤炭生产配额(即工作计划与预算RKAB)可能上调，引发部分中国买家对下半年供应激增的担忧。不过，部分市场参与者认为，由于产量目标上调面临生产瓶颈、国内保供义务(DMO)加强、进口需求疲软以及在中国市场价格竞争力有限等因素，实际对海运市场的影响可能有限。

The coal production quotas in Indonesia (i.e. the work plan and budget RKAB) may be raised, causing some Chinese buyers to worry about a significant increase in supply in the second half of the year. However, some market participants believe that due to factors such as production bottlenecks in the face of increased production targets, strengthened domestic supply obligations (DMO), weak import demand, and limited competitiveness in the Chinese market, the actual impact on the maritime market may be limited.

尽管RKAB配额最终增幅尚未获批，但许多海内外市场消息人士预计，印尼2026年产量配额将从当前约6亿吨的目标上调至7亿至7.5亿吨左右。

Although the final increase in the RKAB quota has not yet been approved, many market insiders both at home and abroad expect that Indonesia's production quota for 2026 will be raised from the current target of approximately 600 million tons to around 700 to 750 million tons.

这一潜在调整标志着印尼此前供应管控政策的转向。年初，政府曾计划将煤炭产量较去年削减逾24%，并提高部分主要矿商的国内市场义务(DMO)比例，旨在遏制供应过剩并支撑价格。

This potential adjustment marks a shift in Indonesia's previous supply control policies. At the beginning of the year, the government had planned to reduce coal production by more than 24% compared to the previous year, and increase the domestic market obligation (DMO) ratio for some major mining companies, aiming to curb oversupply and support prices.

然而，部分受中东地缘政治紧张局势推动 ，上半年国际煤价走强，改变了政府的考量。出口收入潜力增加，加之国内矿业公司因减产面临压力，促使雅加达方面重新考虑产量管控措施。

However, partly driven by the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, international coal prices strengthened in the first half of the year, which changed the government's considerations. The potential increase in export revenue, coupled with the pressure faced by domestic mining companies due to production cuts, prompted Jakarta to reconsider the measures for controlling production.

印尼能源与矿产资源部(ESDM)6月17日宣布，将开始修订煤炭生产计划，允许矿商从7月起提交额外配额申请。申请期预计于7月31日截止，审批将逐步进行并受政府管控。

On June 17th, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of Indonesia (ESDM) announced that it would start revising the coal production plan and allow miners to submit additional quota applications starting from July. The application period is expected to end on July 31st, and the approval process will be carried out gradually and be subject to government control.

配额上调不等于出口大幅增长

An increase in quotas does not necessarily mean a significant increase in exports.

据印尼能矿部(ESDM)数据，2026年前四个月印尼煤炭产量约2.29亿吨。基于历史季节性规律(产量通常在雨季高峰后回升)，1至6月产量大致可估算为3.4亿至3.5亿吨，若5至6月开采活动加速，产量可能略高。

据印尼能矿部(ESDM)数据，2026年前四个月印尼煤炭产量约2.29亿吨。基于历史季节性规律(产量通常在雨季高峰后回升)，1至6月产量大致可估算为3.4亿至3.5亿吨，若5至6月开采活动加速，产量可能略高。

印尼上半年产量高出原定约6亿吨的2026年产量目标的半数约13-17%。即便在RKAB总量上调1.5亿吨至7.5亿吨的情景下，与原始年度目标相比，下半年隐含的额外配额增量约为1亿至1.1亿吨左右。

Indonesia's production in the first half of the year exceeded the originally planned 2026 output target by approximately half, amounting to around 13-17% more than the target. Even in the scenario where the total output of RKAB is increased by 150 million tons to 750 million tons, the additional quota increment implied for the second half of the year compared to the original annual target is approximately 100-110 million tons.

当然，并非所有增量都将用于出口。

Of course, not all of the increments will be used for export.

关键因素在于印尼的DMO政策。印尼能矿部矿产与煤炭司司长秘书西蒂·苏米拉·丽塔·苏西拉瓦蒂今年3月早些时候表示，政府已将2026年DMO目标设定为约2.48亿吨。这意味着，即便在7.5亿吨产量情景下，扣除其他国内用途、库存变动及运营损耗后，理论上全年可出口供应量上限约为5亿吨。

The key factor lies in Indonesia's DMO policy. The Secretary of the Mineral and Coal Division of the Indonesian Ministry of Mineral Resources, Siti Sumira Rita Susilawati, stated earlier in March this year that the government has set the DMO target for 2026 at approximately 248 million tons. This means that even in the 750 million ton production scenario, after deducting other domestic uses, changes in inventory, and operational losses, the theoretical upper limit of the annual export supply is approximately 500 million tons.

根据Kpler船运数据显示，在5-6月出口增长后，上半年印尼煤炭出口量仅略微低于去年同期，而在全年RKAB产量减量以及严格化的国内供应优先保证的背景下，下半年用于出口的额度也不会增加太明显。

According to Kpler shipping data, after a growth in exports in May and June, Indonesia's coal export volume in the first half of the year was only slightly lower than that of the same period last year. And under the circumstances of a reduction in RKAB production throughout the year and stricter domestic supply priority guarantees, the export quota for the second half of the year will not increase significantly either.

换言之，增产部分很可能主要用于增强国内供应履约的灵活性，尤其是在该国频繁遭遇轮流停电之后，而不会带来出口煤的激增。

In other words, the increased production is likely to be mainly used to enhance the flexibility of domestic supply fulfillment, especially after the country frequently experiences alternating power outages. It will not lead to a significant increase in coal exports.

值得注意的是，实际产量可能低于理论水平。此前的减产措施已对采矿作业产生影响。在政府实施更严格的产量管控后，部分生产商降低了设备利用率、推迟了矿山开发计划并调整了劳动力规模。

It is worth noting that the actual output may be lower than the theoretical level. The previous production cuts have already had an impact on the mining operations. After the government implemented stricter production control measures, some producers reduced equipment utilization, postponed mining development plans, and adjusted the size of the workforce.

重启闲置产能难以一蹴而就。矿业公司需要时间调配设备、落实承包商、重建库存并理顺物流链条。因此，部分行业参与者预计实际产量更接近7.3亿吨，而非7.5亿吨的上限情景。

Restarting idle production capacity cannot be achieved overnight. Mining companies need time to reconfigure equipment, secure contractors, rebuild inventories, and streamline logistics chains. Therefore, some industry participants expect the actual output to be closer to 7.3 billion tons rather than the 7.5 billion ton upper limit scenario.

在此水平下，与原始6亿吨目标相比的增量供应将更小，而扣除DMO要求后，实际出口增量将进一步缩减。

At this level, the incremental supply compared to the original 600 million tons target will be smaller, and after deducting the DMO requirements, the actual export increment will be further reduced.

除供应端制约外，出口市场本身可能也难以消化更多印尼煤炭。尽管中国仍是印尼最大的海运动力煤买家，但2026年进口需求已有所减弱，因国内煤炭供应充足且可再生能源发电持续扩张。

Apart from supply-side constraints, the export market itself may also struggle to absorb more Indonesian coal. Although China remains the largest importer of Indonesian seaborne thermal coal, import demand has weakened in 2026 due to abundant domestic coal supply and the continuous expansion of renewable energy power generation.

中国电厂和贸易商对价格也日益敏感。印尼煤炭相对于国内供应及其他海外来源的传统成本优势已多次丧失，即便更多印尼货源到港，买家补库意愿也受到限制。

Chinese power plants and traders have also become increasingly sensitive to prices. The traditional cost advantage of Indonesian coal over domestic supply and other overseas sources has been lost several times. Even if more Indonesian supplies arrive at the ports, the willingness of buyers to replenish their stocks is still limited.

据中国煤炭资源网估算，今年以来约72%的交易日中，印尼3800大卡动力煤按热值换算并运抵华南后的价格高于中国国内同等煤种，中东冲突及RKAB削减均是影响因素。

According to estimates by China Coal Resources Network, since the beginning of this year, approximately 72% of the trading days saw the price of 3800-kilocalorie thermal coal from Indonesia, converted to heat value and transported to South China, being higher than the same coal type in China. The conflicts in the Middle East and the reduction by RKAB were both influencing factors.

地缘政治冲突对海运动力煤价格的影响短期内将持续。随着霍尔木兹海峡对峙升级，美军自7月12日起对伊朗发动新一轮打击，德黑兰方面称最新袭击使过去数月的外交努力“化为徒劳”。

The impact of geopolitical conflicts on the price of seaborne thermal coal will persist in the short term. As the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz escalates, the US military has launched a new round of strikes against Iran since July 12th. Tehran claims that the latest attacks have rendered the diplomatic efforts over the past few months "in vain".

因此，印尼产量增加并不必然意味着对华出口增长。在进口经济性未显著改善的情况下，新增印尼煤炭在中国可能面临需求困境。

Therefore, an increase in Indonesia's production does not necessarily mean an increase in exports to China. Without a significant improvement in the import economy, the additional Indonesian coal imported into China may face a demand predicament.

总体而言，印尼煤炭生产配额的潜在上调在纸面上的意义大于实际市场影响。尽管政策转向标志着严格减产路线的松动，但生产瓶颈、国内义务加重及中国进口经济性疲软等因素，预计将限制其对海运煤炭供应的实际影响。

Overall, the potential increase in Indonesia's coal production quotas holds more significance on paper than it does in the actual market impact. Although the policy shift indicates a loosening of the strict production reduction path, factors such as production bottlenecks, increased domestic obligations, and the weak economic performance of China's imports are expected to limit its actual impact on the supply of coal by sea.