当全球还在消化地缘冲突带来的能源冲击时，来自印度尼西亚共和国(以下简称“印尼”)的一纸新政，让本已紧绷的国际煤炭市场再添波澜。

While the world is still grappling with the energy shock caused by geopolitical conflicts, a new policy from the Republic of Indonesia (hereinafter referred to as "Indonesia") has added another layer of turmoil to an already tense international coal market.

5月20日，印尼总统普拉博沃在国会正式签发《自然资源商品出口治理条例》，宣布煤炭、棕榈油、铁合金三大战略资源出口，必须通过政府指定国有企业作为唯一出口商。

On May 20th, Indonesian President Prabowo officially signed the "Regulation on Governance of Natural Resources Exports" in the parliament, announcing that for the three strategic resources - coal, palm oil and ferroalloys - their exports must be handled exclusively by the government-designated state-owned enterprises.

普拉博沃在演讲中直言，过去34年印尼因大宗商品“低价低报”流失了约9080亿美元的国家收益，新政的首要目标便是“加强监管，根除低开发票、转移定价和出口收入外逃等行为”。

In his speech, Prabowo stated outright that over the past 34 years, Indonesia has lost approximately $908 billion in national revenue due to "underreporting of low commodity prices". The primary goal of the new policy is to "strengthen supervision and eradicate behaviors such as under-invoicing, transfer pricing, and the flight of export income".

消息甫出，雅加达综合指数应声暴跌超3%，煤炭矿业股全线重挫。这场被多方定性为“资源民族主义深度实践”的政策转向，其冲击波远不止于印尼国内。

As soon as the news was released, the Jakarta Composite Index plunged by more than 3%, and all coal and mining stocks suffered heavy losses. This policy shift, which was characterized by many as a "deep practice of resource nationalism", has had ripple effects far beyond Indonesia.

新政并非孤立之举。细察印尼过去半年的政策轨迹，一条不断收紧资源出口的逻辑清晰可见。

The new policy is not an isolated action. A close examination of Indonesia's policy trajectory over the past six months reveals a clear logic of continuously tightening control over resource exports.

早在今年初，印尼政府便大幅削减煤炭产量配额至约6亿吨，较2025年产量下降约24%;与此同时，国内市场义务(DMO)比例从25%上调至30%;财政部同步推进的煤炭出口关税，已提出5%、8%、11%的阶梯式税率方案。

As early as at the beginning of this year, the Indonesian government significantly reduced the coal production quota to approximately 600 million tons, a decrease of about 24% compared to the 2025 production level; at the same time, the Domestic Market Obligation (DMO) ratio was raised from 25% to 30%; the coal export tariffs being implemented simultaneously by the Ministry of Finance have proposed a stepped tax rate scheme of 5%, 8%, and 11%.

“减量”“加税”之后，最新落地的“国有专营”才是真正的关键一步。

After "reduction" and "tax increase", the latest measure of "state monopoly" is the truly crucial step.

新政设置了明确的实施时间表：6月1日至8月31日为过渡期，私营矿企需逐步将交易关系转移至国有企业;9月1日起全面实施，由指定国企全权负责出口全流程，包括清关、报关、结算等所有环节。

The new policy has set a clear implementation schedule: from June 1st to August 31st is the transition period, during which private mining enterprises need to gradually transfer their trading relationships to state-owned enterprises; starting from September 1st, the policy will be fully implemented, with designated state-owned enterprises taking full responsibility for the entire export process, including customs clearance, customs declaration, settlement and all other related procedures.

过渡期结束后，所有出口业务将统一由印尼主权财富基金达南塔拉旗下的国有企业PT Danantara Sumber Daya Indonesia负责，该机构向国内卖家购货，再统一转卖给外国买家。

After the transition period ends, all export operations will be uniformly handled by PT Danantara Sumber Daya Indonesia, a state-owned enterprise under the Indonesian sovereign wealth fund Danantara. This company purchases goods from domestic sellers and then sells them uniformly to foreign buyers.

山西证券研报指出，从“减量”转为“卡货源”，即印尼出口煤炭所取得的现金流要先归集到国企平台，再分配给相关企业，“新政策相对更加不可逆”。

The research report of Shanxi Securities points out that from "reducing quantity" to "controlling the supply of goods", that is, the cash flow generated from Indonesia's coal exports needs to be first collected by the state-owned enterprise platform and then distributed to the relevant enterprises. "The new policy is relatively more irreversible."

不过，政策的执行细节仍有诸多模糊地带。5月25日，新加坡上市的天然煤矿集团Geo Energy Resources发声明称，集团“尚未收到任何与此事相关的正式通知”，预计实施框架、行政流程和文件要求等方面仍须“进一步明确”。

However, there are still many unclear aspects regarding the implementation details of the policy. On May 25th, Geo Energy Resources, a natural coal mining company listed in Singapore, issued a statement saying that the company "has not received any formal notice related to this matter", and it is expected that aspects such as the implementation framework, administrative procedures, and document requirements still need to be "further clarified".

印尼是全球最大的动力煤出口国，2025年出口量超5亿吨，占全球动力煤贸易量约50%。这样一个“压舱石”角色收紧阀门，影响必然是系统性的。

Indonesia is the world's largest exporter of thermal coal, with an export volume exceeding 500 million tons in 2025, accounting for approximately 50% of the global trade volume of thermal coal. If such a "balancing stone" role tightens its valve, the impact will be systemic.

有分析指出，新政叠加产量配额削减和DMO约束，预计印尼全年煤炭出口将锐减30%至40%，约1.2至1.5亿吨。

Some analyses suggest that the new policies, combined with the reduction in production quotas and DMO restrictions, are expected to lead to a 30% to 40% decrease in Indonesia's annual coal exports, amounting to approximately 120 to 150 million tons.

供给端的急剧收缩，已率先在价格端引发共振。全球动力煤基准纽卡斯尔煤炭期货价格年内涨幅已达31.68%，而国内秦皇岛港动力煤年内涨幅仅22.4%，内外价格倒挂约40元/吨。

The sharp contraction at the supply end has already triggered a resonance at the price level. The benchmark Newcastle coal futures price for global thermal coal has risen by 31.68% this year, while the domestic price at Qinhuangdao Port for thermal coal has only increased by 22.4%. The price gap between the domestic and international markets is approximately 40 yuan per ton.

对中国市场而言，印尼长期是第一大动力煤进口来源国，以热值3800—4500大卡的低卡煤为主，主要用于沿海电厂混配。

For the Chinese market, Indonesia has long been the largest source of imported thermal coal. It mainly imports low-calorie coal with a calorific value ranging from 3800 to 4500 calories, which is mainly used for blending in coastal power plants.

据海关总署统计数据显示，2025年中国进口印尼煤约2.11亿吨，占动力煤进口量的43%。

According to the statistics from the General Administration of Customs, in 2025, China imported approximately 211 million tons of Indonesian coal, accounting for 43% of the total imported coal for power generation.

中信证券研报判断，新政对中国煤炭市场的核心影响是“造成进口成本上移、进口量进一步收缩”，但因国内自给率高、替代源可补，“整体对全国煤价的冲击可控且以结构性为主”。

CITIC Securities' research report indicates that the core impact of the new policy on China's coal market is "causing an increase in import costs and a further reduction in import volume", but due to the high domestic self-sufficiency rate and the availability of alternative sources, "the overall impact on national coal prices is controllable and mainly structural."

能源转型研究所(Energy Shift Institute)的能源分析师Putra Adhiguna则认为，这一政策是普拉博沃政府“迄今最大胆的直接控制国家大宗商品的举措”，有利于增加财政收入，但实施过程中“腐败是需要警惕的关键问题”。

Energy analyst Putra Adhiguna from the Energy Shift Institute believes that this policy is "the boldest direct control measure over national commodities" taken by the Prabowo government to date. It is beneficial for increasing fiscal revenue, but during its implementation, "corruption is a key issue that needs to be guarded against".

英国能源智库Ember的分析师Dinita Setyawati也指出，国有化将为印尼在与超级大国的资源博弈中带来更强的“议价能力”，但效果取决于政策能否透明执行。

Dinita Setyawati, an analyst from the British energy think tank Ember, also pointed out that nationalization would give Indonesia greater "bargaining power" in its resource negotiations with major powers, but the effectiveness would depend on whether the policies could be implemented transparently.

新政落地之际，全球煤炭市场的供需平衡本就岌岌可危。

When the new policy was implemented, the balance of supply and demand in the global coal market was already in a precarious state.

国泰海通研报指出，除印尼减产外，澳大利亚下半年将有超过5%的产能因采矿证到期退出，俄罗斯产量缺乏资本开支支撑持续下滑，美国约5000万吨动力煤出口亦可能逐步转向自用，“全球煤炭紧平衡将逐步兑现”。

The research report by Guotai Haitong points out that apart from the production cut in Indonesia, more than 5% of the production capacity in Australia will be withdrawn in the second half of the year due to the expiration of mining licenses. Russia's coal output is continuously declining due to a lack of capital investment. The approximately 50 million tons of thermal coal exports from the United States may gradually shift to domestic use. "The global coal tight balance will gradually materialize."

在港股市场上，聚焦国际煤炭资源开发的运营商中国秦发，消息公布当日暴跌27.84%。

In the Hong Kong stock market, the operator of focusing on international coal resource development, China Qinfa, saw its stock plummet by 27.84% on the day of the announcement.

市场的恐慌并非没有道理——火电企业面临进口燃料成本刚性抬升与国内电价承受力之间的双重压力。

The market panic is not without reason - thermal power enterprises are facing the dual pressure of the rigid increase in import fuel costs and the domestic electricity price's capacity to bear.

中信证券研报分析，华南、华东等沿海区域电厂因进口煤占比高，或面临到厂成本上升、采购节奏被动等负面影响，迎峰度夏、迎峰度冬期间的扰动将更为显著。

A research report by CITIC Securities analyzed that power plants in coastal areas such as South China and East China, due to their high reliance on imported coal, may face negative impacts such as rising on-site costs and passive procurement schedules. The disruptions during peak power demand periods (summer and winter) will be more significant.

但硬币总有另一面，进口煤缺口正在倒逼能源转型提速。

However, there is always another side to the coin. The shortage of imported coal is forcing the energy sector to accelerate its transition towards a cleaner, more sustainable model.

今年4月，在多重因素叠加下，广东现货电价成交均价同比上涨47.95%，高电价环境进一步凸显了绿电的经济性。与此同时，“双碳”目标被系统性纳入地方政府考核后，“绿电溢价”已从每千瓦时0.05至0.1元抬升至0.1至0.2元。

In April this year, under the combined influence of various factors, the average transaction price of spot electricity in Guangdong rose by 47.95% year-on-year. The high electricity price environment further highlighted the economic benefits of green electricity. At the same time, after the "dual carbon" target was systematically incorporated into the assessment of local governments, the "green electricity premium" has increased from 0.05 to 0.1 yuan per kilowatt-hour to 0.1 to 0.2 yuan per kilowatt-hour.

从更长的视角看，印尼新政标志着全球资源贸易从“市场主导”向“国家管控”加速转变。当主要资源出口国纷纷收紧阀门，资源进口国的能源安全策略也将迎来重塑时刻。

From a broader perspective, the new policies in Indonesia signify an accelerated shift in global resource trade from "market-driven" to "state-controlled". As major resource-exporting countries tighten their controls, the energy security strategies of resource-importing countries will also undergo a period of reconfiguration.

对于依赖印尼煤的亚洲各国而言，加速寻求替代供应源、调整能源结构，已不再是可有可无的选项。

For Asian countries that rely on Indonesian coal, accelerating the search for alternative supply sources and adjusting their energy structure is no longer an optional choice but a necessity.