此前预测全球原油日需求增量117万桶，现下调至97万桶/日

Previously, it was predicted that the global daily demand for crude oil would increase by 1.17 million barrels. Now, this has been revised down to 970,000 barrels per day.

伊拉克埃尔比勒燃油开采作业现场。数据显示5月欧佩克原油日产量减少17.7万桶，降至1883万桶。伊拉克埃尔比勒燃油开采作业现场。数据显示，5月欧佩克原油日产量减少17.7万桶，降至1883万桶。

The oil extraction site in Erbil, Iraq. The data shows that in May, the daily output of crude oil by OPEC decreased by 177,000 barrels, dropping to 18.83 million barrels. The oil extraction site in Erbil, Iraq. The data indicates that in May, the daily output of crude oil by OPEC decreased by 177,000 barrels, dropping to 18.83 million barrels.

受美国封锁伊朗影响，石油输出国组织（欧佩克）将2026年全球原油日需求增长预期下调至97万桶。

Due to the US embargo on Iran, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has lowered its forecast for global daily crude oil demand growth in 2026 to 970,000 barrels.

石油输出国组织下调了本年度全球石油需求预测。原因是美国对伊朗实施封锁，霍尔木兹海峡近乎断航，海湾主要产油国原油供应持续受限。

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has lowered its forecast for global oil demand this year. The reason is that the United States has imposed a blockade on Iran, causing the Strait of Hormuz to be almost completely blocked, and the supply of crude oil from the major oil-producing countries in the Gulf has continued to be restricted.

该产油国联盟最新预测，今年全球原油日需求增量为97万桶，此前预期为117万桶；上调明年需求增长预期至173万桶/日，此前预测为154万桶/日。

The latest forecast by the oil-producing country alliance indicates that the global daily demand for crude oil will increase by 970,000 barrels this year, compared with the previous expectation of 1.17 million barrels. The demand growth forecast for next year has been raised to 1.73 million barrels per day, from the previous estimate of 1.54 million barrels per day.

欧佩克的需求预判与其他机构存在明显分歧。其余分析机构认为，伊朗冲突将对原油消费造成更严重冲击：美国能源信息署预计今年全球原油日需求将减少110万桶，国际能源署则预测需求每日收缩42万桶。

The demand projections of OPEC differ significantly from those of other institutions. The remaining analytical agencies believe that the conflict in Iran will have a more severe impact on crude oil consumption: The U.S. Energy Information Administration predicts that global daily crude oil demand will decrease by 1.1 million barrels this year, while the International Energy Agency forecasts a daily contraction of 420,000 barrels.

5月，欧佩克成员国原油日产量下降17.7万桶，至1883万桶；涵盖更多产油国的欧佩克+联盟整体日产量减少18.5万桶，报3313万桶。伊朗减产幅度最为剧烈，受美国封锁港口航运影响，原油日产量锐减54.6万桶。

In May, the daily crude oil production of OPEC member countries decreased by 177,000 barrels to 18.83 million barrels; the overall daily production of the OPEC+ alliance, which includes more oil-producing countries, dropped by 185,000 barrels to 33.13 million barrels. Iran experienced the most significant reduction in production, with its daily crude oil output plummeting by 546,000 barrels due to the blockade of port shipping by the United States.

统计数据仍包含阿联酋产量，该国已于5月初退出欧佩克。

The statistics still include the production figures of the United Arab Emirates, which withdrew from OPEC in early May.

霍尔木兹海峡是全球石油运输核心要道，全球五分之一原油经此运输，也是海湾多国向亚洲输送原油的关键通道，如今航运近乎中断。即便如此，欧佩克及其盟友核心成员国仍达成协议，将于7月再度上调原油产量，市场普遍认为此次增产仅具备象征意义。

The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial artery for global oil transportation. One fifth of the world's crude oil passes through here. It is also a key passage for the Gulf countries to transport crude oil to Asia. Currently, shipping has almost come to a halt. Even so, the core member countries of OPEC and its allies have reached an agreement to increase crude oil production again in July. The market generally believes that this increase in production is merely symbolic.

两个月前各方达成停火协议，但中东地区紧张局势并未缓和，过去一周美伊再度发生交火。特朗普政府正推进一份谅解备忘录，计划逐步恢复霍尔木兹海峡通航；但围绕伊朗核计划、美方解除对伊金融制裁等议题，谈判陷入停滞。

Two months ago, a ceasefire agreement was reached among all parties, but the tension in the Middle East has not eased. In the past week, there were renewed clashes between the US and Iran. The Trump administration is promoting a memorandum of understanding, planning to gradually restore navigation in the Strait of Hormuz; however, negotiations have stalled over issues such as Iran's nuclear program and the US's lifting of financial sanctions against Iran.

周四欧洲盘午后交易时段，布伦特原油价格略低于每桶92美元，西德克萨斯轻质原油（WTI）维持在每桶89美元附近。

During the afternoon trading session in the European market on Thursday, the price of Brent crude oil was slightly below $92 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) remained around $89 per barrel.

尽管原油供应长期中断、全球库存持续消耗，两大国际原油基准价仍远低于3月高点。多国释放战略石油储备、全球需求走弱、中国原油进口下滑、美国原油出口放量，加之沙特、阿联酋调整原油管道输送路线，多重因素共同缓解市场紧张情绪，对冲供应缺口带来的涨价压力。

Despite the long-term disruption in crude oil supply and the continuous depletion of global inventories, the two major international crude oil benchmarks remain far below their March highs. Multiple countries have released strategic oil reserves, global demand has weakened, China's crude oil imports have declined, U.S. crude oil exports have increased, and Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have adjusted the routes of crude oil pipeline transportation. These various factors have jointly alleviated market tensions and mitigated the price increase pressure caused by the supply gap.

欧佩克表示，非欧佩克+产油国今年原油日供应增量预计为63万桶，明年为62万桶。

OPEC stated that the daily increase in crude oil supply from non-OPEC+ oil-producing countries is expected to be 630,000 barrels this year and 620,000 barrels next year.