本周基本面情况

This week's fundamental situation

1、国际油价环比下跌：本周（6.18-6.24），国际原油价格整体呈现震荡下行的走势，周度均价环比下跌。WTI均价73.74美元/桶，较前一周下跌7.49美元/桶，或-9.22%。

1. International oil prices declined month-on-month: During this week (June 18 - 24), the overall international crude oil prices showed a fluctuating downward trend, and the weekly average price declined compared to the previous week. The average price of WTI was $73.74 per barrel, down by $7.49 per barrel from the previous week, or -9.22%.

2、美伊结束首轮谈判：据央视新闻报道，当地时间6月21日，在瑞士举行的伊美谈判第一轮已结束，巴基斯坦总理夏巴兹表示，各方在积极氛围中取得突破进展，就美伊60天内达成最终协议的路线达成一致。

2. US-Iran Negotiations Come to an End: According to CCTV News, on June 21st local time, the first round of negotiations between the US and Iran held in Switzerland has concluded. Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz said that all parties achieved breakthrough progress in a positive atmosphere and reached an agreement on the route for the US and Iran to reach a final agreement within 60 days.

3、美国放宽对伊朗能源相关交易限制：美国财政部发布一份为期60天的一般许可，授权允许伊朗石油的生产、交付和销售。

3. The United States relaxes restrictions on energy-related transactions with Iran: The US Department of the Treasury has issued a 60-day general license, authorizing the production, delivery and sale of Iranian oil.

下周市场关注焦点

The focus of market attention next week

1、美伊后续外交接触：美伊双方在结束了瑞士谈判后，两国继续保持外交接触，市场对美伊后续谈判进程持观望态度。

1. Subsequent diplomatic contacts between the US and Iran: After the conclusion of the negotiations in Switzerland, the two countries maintained diplomatic communication. The market is observing the subsequent negotiation process between the US and Iran with a wait-and-see attitude.

2、霍尔木兹海峡通航情况：霍尔木兹海峡通航船只逐渐增加，尽管仍低于冲突爆发前水平，但较低点已经所有回升。

2. Navigation conditions in the Strait of Hormuz: The number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz is gradually increasing. Although it is still lower than the level before the conflict broke out, the lowest point has already been fully recovered.

3、海湾各国原油生产情况：市场关注冲突缓和后海湾各产油国石油生产恢复情况。

3. Oil production situation in the Gulf countries: The market is closely watching the recovery of oil production in the Gulf's oil-producing countries after the easing of the conflict.

第一章 国际原油市场走势回顾

Chapter One: Review of International Crude Oil Market Trends

美伊局势持续缓和国际油价震荡下行

The situation between the United States and Iran continues to ease, and international oil prices are experiencing a downward trend.

本周（6.18-6.24），原油整体呈现震荡下行的走势，周度均价环比下跌。

This week (from June 18th to June 24th), the overall trend of crude oil was a downward fluctuation. The weekly average price dropped compared with the previous week.

周内，据新华社、央视新闻等多家媒体消息，美伊结束在瑞士举行的首轮谈判，巴基斯坦总理夏巴兹表示，各方在积极氛围中取得突破进展，就美伊60天内达成最终协议的路线达成一致。据伊朗方面消息，双方在首轮会谈中并没有讨论伊朗核计划问题，本轮谈判重点集中在落实谅解备忘录第13条，并优先处理与黎巴嫩相关的议题。此外，美国还放宽了对伊朗能源相关交易限制，美国财政部发布一份为期60天的一般许可，授权允许伊朗石油的生产、交付和销售。霍尔木兹海峡方面，阿曼与伊朗在马斯喀特发表联合声明，作为霍尔木兹海峡沿岸国家，阿曼和伊朗重申，双方将根据适用的国际法，致力于保障霍尔木兹海峡安全通行。

During the week, according to multiple media outlets such as Xinhua News Agency and CCTV News, the US and Iran concluded the first round of negotiations held in Switzerland. Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz said that all parties achieved breakthrough progress in a positive atmosphere and reached an agreement on the route for the US and Iran to reach a final agreement within 60 days. According to the Iranian side, neither the Iranian nuclear program issue was discussed during the first round of talks. The focus of this round of negotiations was on implementing Article 13 of the Memorandum of Understanding and prioritizing issues related to Lebanon. Additionally, the US has relaxed restrictions on Iranian energy-related transactions. The US Treasury Department issued a 60-day general license, authorizing the permission for Iran's oil production, delivery, and sales. Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, Oman and Iran issued a joint statement in Muscat. As coastal countries of the Strait of Hormuz, Oman and Iran reaffirmed that they would, in accordance with applicable international law, strive to ensure safe passage through the Strait.

中东现货价格下跌

Spot prices in the Middle East have declined.

本周（6.18-6.24），国际原油现货均价环比下跌。中东原油市场方面，阿布扎比国家石油公司在本月的第三轮原油现货船货招标中，至少售出了1800万桶阿联酋原油。此次成交后，阿布扎比国家石油公司6月迄今现货原油销售量至少达到4800万桶。此外，在取消了不可抗力且宣布增产计划后，科威特石油公司标书销售7月交付的原油，卡塔尔能源公司销售的石油品种包括海洋、陆地和埃尔沙欣原油船货，每船数量为200万桶。亚洲原油现货市场，印度石油公司发布船舶租赁招标，拟租用船只从霍尔木兹海峡沿线港口装运原油与液化石油气，但本次招标暂无任何企业投标。

This week (from June 18th to June 24th), the average spot price of international crude oil declined compared with the previous week. In the Middle East crude oil market, the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company sold at least 18 million barrels of UAE crude oil in the third round of crude oil spot cargo bidding this month. After this transaction, the spot crude oil sales volume of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company in June has reached at least 48 million barrels so far. Moreover, after canceling the force majeure and announcing the production increase plan, the Kuwait Oil Company sold the crude oil for July delivery in the tender documents, and Qatar Energy Company sold oil varieties including marine, land and Elshahin crude oil cargoes, with each shipment quantity being 2 million barrels. In the Asian crude oil spot market, the Indian Oil Company issued a ship leasing tender, planning to rent ships to load crude oil and liquefied petroleum gas from ports along the Strait of Hormuz, but no enterprises bid in this tender.

第二章 原油市场热点事件

Chapter 2 Hot Events in the Oil Market

美国暂时放宽对伊朗能源相关交易限制

The United States has temporarily eased restrictions on energy-related transactions with Iran.

当地时间2026年6月22日，美国财政部外国资产控制办公室（OFAC）发布伊朗通用许可证。该许可授权相关主体开展伊朗原产原油、石化及石油产品的生产、交付、销售相关合规交易，有效期至美国东部夏令时间2026年8月21日凌晨12:01。根据美国和伊朗日前达成的谅解备忘录，美国承诺，自谅解备忘录签署之日起至制裁解除之日，美国财政部将签发豁免许可，允许伊朗原油、石油产品及衍生品出口，以及银行交易、保险、运输等全部配套服务。

On June 22, 2026 local time, the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) of the US Department of the Treasury issued an Iran General License. This license authorizes relevant entities to conduct compliant transactions related to the production, delivery, and sale of Iranian-origin crude oil, petrochemicals, and petroleum products. The validity period is until 12:01 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on August 21, 2026. According to the memorandum of understanding recently reached between the United States and Iran, the US has committed that starting from the date of signing the memorandum of understanding until the sanctions are lifted, the US Department of the Treasury will issue exemption licenses, allowing the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products, and derivatives, as well as all supporting services such as banking transactions, insurance, and transportation.

除例外条款限制外，所有与上述油气产品开采、售卖、运输、卸货配套的必要常规交易均获豁免制裁，涵盖船舶停靠、船员安全保障、应急维修、环保处置、船舶管理、船员配备、燃油补给、引航、船籍登记、保险、船级检验、打捞等配套服务；受许可覆盖的伊朗油气产品，包含遭美制裁伊朗实体产出的同类产品；同时允许为完成油气购销运输，将伊朗油气产品进口至美国境内。同时，依据本许可采购伊朗油气产品应付给伊朗政府、伊朗相关主体或被冻结制裁对象的款项，可使用美元结算。

Except for the exceptions stipulated in the clause, all necessary routine transactions related to the extraction, sale, transportation, and unloading of the aforementioned oil and gas products are exempt from sanctions. These include services such as vessel berthing, crew safety guarantees, emergency repairs, environmental disposal, vessel management, crew allocation, fuel replenishment, pilotage, vessel registration, insurance, class inspection, salvage, etc. The covered Iranian oil and gas products include the same products produced by Iranian entities subject to US sanctions. At the same time, it is allowed to import Iranian oil and gas products into the United States for the purpose of completing oil and gas purchase, sale, and transportation. Meanwhile, the payments for Iranian oil and gas products purchased under this license and to be paid to the Iranian government, Iranian related entities, or the frozen and sanctioned targets can be settled in US dollars.

此豁免是美伊谅解备忘录的兑现，为未来60天达成最终协议争取时间，并非永久解除制裁。

This exemption is a fulfillment of the memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran. It aims to secure time for the conclusion of a final agreement in the next 60 days and does not mean the permanent lifting of sanctions.

自2018年美国单方面退出《伊核协议》并实施对伊朗石油的制裁以来，伊朗原油生产一度跌至历史低位水平。从近十年的历史数据来看，伊朗原油产量在2017年达到了最高，为385万桶/日，而最低产量则出现在2020年，为190万桶/日，较最高峰时的降幅达到了51%。随着美国松绑伊朗，伊朗的原油产量有望得到恢复。

Since the United States unilaterally withdrew from the "Iran Nuclear Deal" and imposed sanctions on Iran's oil in 2018, Iran's crude oil production has dropped to a historically low level. Based on the historical data of the past decade, Iran's crude oil output reached its peak in 2017 at 3.85 million barrels per day, while the lowest output occurred in 2020, at 1.9 million barrels per day, representing a 51% decline from the peak. With the easing of sanctions on Iran by the United States, Iran's crude oil production is expected to recover.

第三章 原油市场供需情况

Chapter 3 Supply and Demand Situation of the Oil Market

美国原油库存减少

U.S. crude oil inventories have decreased.

产量方面，EIA数据显示，截至2026年6月19日当周，美国原油产量增长1.3万桶/日至1381.9万桶/日。此外，美国能源服务公司贝克休斯（Baker Hughes）在其备受关注的报告中表示，截止6月18日的一周（15日到18日），美国在线钻探油井数量433座，与前周持平，比去年同期减少5座。报告显示，迦南伍德福德盆地增加1座，科罗拉多州奈厄布拉勒盆地增加1座，俄克拉荷马州西部的花岗岩冲击盆地减少1座，本周美国海上平台9座，比前周增加1座，比去年同期减少5座。

In terms of production, the EIA data shows that as of the week ending June 19, 2026, the U.S. crude oil production increased by 13,000 barrels per day to 13.819 million barrels per day. Additionally, the U.S. energy services company Baker Hughes stated in its highly anticipated report that as of June 18 (from the 15th to the 18th), the number of online oil drilling wells in the United States was 433, the same as the previous week, and 5 less than the same period last year. The report indicates that there was 1 increase in the Canaan Woodford Basin, 1 increase in the Neaebraler Basin in Colorado, and 1 decrease in the Granite Wash Basin in Oklahoma. This week, there were 9 offshore platforms in the United States, 1 more than the previous week and 5 less than the same period last year.

主流机构原油市场供需预测

Mainstream institutions' forecasts for crude oil market supply and demand

供应方面

Supply side

EIA：EIA预计2026年美国原油产量将从2025年创纪录的1360万桶/日升至1370万桶/日。

EIA: The EIA predicts that the U.S. crude oil production will increase from the record 13.6 million barrels per day in 2025 to 13.7 million barrels per day in 2026.

OPEC：OPEC驳斥IEA供应过剩预测，认为石油需求将持续增长。

OPEC: OPEC refutes the IEA's prediction of oversupply, arguing that oil demand will continue to grow.

IEA：IEA预测阿联酋明年的石油产量将达520万桶/日，比今年增加73万桶/日。

IEA: The IEA predicts that the oil production of the United Arab Emirates will reach 5.2 million barrels per day next year, an increase of 730,000 barrels per day compared to this year.

需求方面

In terms of requirements

EIA：EIA预计今年全球石油需求将下降110万桶/日，这是自2020年受新冠疫情影响而下降以来的首次下降。

EIA: The EIA predicts that global oil demand will decline by 1.1 million barrels per day this year. This is the first decline since the pandemic in 2020.

OPEC：OPEC在其年度《世界石油展望》报告中指出，预计全球石油需求将从2025年的日均1.051亿桶，增长至2030年的日均1.133亿桶，并在2050年达到日均1.241亿桶。

OPEC: In its annual "World Oil Outlook" report, OPEC stated that global oil demand is projected to increase from an average of 1.051 billion barrels per day in 2025 to 1.133 billion barrels per day in 2030, and to reach 1.241 billion barrels per day by 2050.

IEA：IEA预计2027年全球需求增长为每日200万桶。

IEA: The IEA predicts that global demand will increase by 2 million barrels per day in 2027.

第四章 原油期货市场走势展望

Chapter Four: Outlook on the Trend of the Oil Futures Market

下周市场展望

Market Outlook for Next Week

技术图上，国际原油价格整体呈现低位震荡的走势。当周导致油价承压的主要因素：一是美伊结束在瑞士举行的第一轮谈判，中东地缘局势整体趋于缓和；二是美国放宽对伊朗能源的交易限制；三是通航霍尔木兹海峡的船只数量逐渐增加。当周对油价起到支撑的主要因素是美国原油库存减少。截至24日，WTI报收70.34美元/桶，环比下跌6.45美元/桶或-8.40%；截至24日当周，WTI均价73.74美元/桶，较前一周下跌7.49美元/桶，或-9.22%。从技术形态上来看，标志着油价呈现震荡下行的走势。

On the technical chart, the international crude oil price generally shows a trend of low-level oscillation. The main factors that pressured the oil price during the week were: first, the end of the first round of negotiations between the US and Iran held in Switzerland, and the overall geopolitical situation in the Middle East has tended to ease; second, the US relaxed restrictions on energy transactions with Iran; third, the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz has gradually increased. The main factor that supported the oil price during the week was the reduction in US crude oil inventories. As of the 24th, WTI closed at $70.34 per barrel, down $6.45 per barrel or -8.40% compared with the previous week; as of the 24th of the current week, the average price of WTI was $73.74 per barrel, down $7.49 per barrel or -9.22% compared with the previous week. From the technical perspective, it indicates a downward trend with oscillation in the oil price.

本周，据新华社报道，巴基斯坦总理夏巴兹表示，美国与伊朗在瑞士比尔根山举行的高级别谈判已结束，各方在积极氛围中取得突破进展，就美伊60天内达成最终协议的路线图取得一致。夏巴兹表示，各方还同意设立一个高级别委员会，负责监督谈判进程，同时启动技术性会谈。夏巴兹对美伊两国高层的建设性接触表示赞赏，并对卡塔尔、瑞士等国的支持表示感谢。他表示，巴方将继续为推动地区和平发挥建设性作用。

This week, according to Xinhua News Agency, Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz said that the high-level negotiations between the United States and Iran in the Swiss mountain resort of Bielgen have concluded. All parties have made breakthrough progress in a positive atmosphere and reached consensus on the roadmap for the US and Iran to reach a final agreement within 60 days. Shahbaz stated that all parties also agreed to establish a high-level committee to oversee the negotiation process and initiate technical talks. Shahbaz expressed appreciation for the constructive contact between the top leaders of the US and Iran and thanked the support from countries such as Qatar and Switzerland. He said that the Pakistani side will continue to play a constructive role in promoting regional peace.

当地时间6月22日，美国财政部发布一份为期60天的一般许可，授权允许伊朗石油的生产、交付和销售。根据美国财政部外国资产控制办公室当日发布的公告，此前被美国多个行政令和规定禁止的伊朗原油、石化和石油产品的生产、交付及销售交易均得到豁免，期限至2026年8月21日。

On June 22nd local time, the US Treasury Department issued a 60-day general license, authorizing the production, delivery and sale of Iranian oil. According to the announcement released by the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control on the same day, transactions related to the production, delivery and sale of Iranian crude oil, petrochemicals and petroleum products that were previously prohibited by multiple US executive orders and regulations have been exempted, with the period ending on August 21, 2026.

据新华社报道，阿曼与伊朗23日在马斯喀特发表联合声明说，作为霍尔木兹海峡沿岸国家，阿曼和伊朗重申，双方将根据适用的国际法，致力于保障霍尔木兹海峡安全通行。声明强调，所有涉及霍尔木兹海峡的安排必须充分尊重两国作为海峡沿岸国家所享有的主权和主权权利。双方重申维护霍尔木兹海峡作为国际航运安全、开放水道的重要性，并强调将继续加强合作，促进海上安全、航行自由和地区稳定。

According to Xinhua News Agency, on the 23rd, Oman and Iran issued a joint statement in Muscat, stating that as countries along the Strait of Hormuz, Oman and Iran reaffirmed that both sides will, in accordance with applicable international law, strive to ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The statement emphasized that all arrangements related to the Strait of Hormuz must fully respect the sovereignty and sovereign rights enjoyed by both countries as countries along the strait. Both sides reaffirmed the importance of the Strait of Hormuz as an international shipping safety and open waterway, and emphasized that they will continue to strengthen cooperation to promote maritime security, freedom of navigation, and regional stability.

根据金联创的市场分析，美伊局势的缓和仍是油价承压的主要因素。随着美伊进入60天的谈判期，市场权衡中东原油可能大量涌入市场与美伊谈判遇阻的风险或将使得油市波动。美国暂时放松伊油制裁或加速中东石油的流出，但受制于部分产油国油田受损，整体供应恢复尚需时日。此外，也不排除谈判期间美伊出现局部矛盾，造成短期地缘紧张气氛。

According to the market analysis by Jinlianchuang, the easing of the situation between the United States and Iran remains the main factor contributing to the pressure on oil prices. As the United States and Iran enter a 60-day negotiation period, the market is weighing the risks of a large influx of Middle East crude oil into the market and the obstruction of the US-Iran negotiations, which may lead to fluctuations in the oil market. The temporary relaxation of US sanctions on Iranian oil may accelerate the outflow of Middle East oil, but due to the damage to some oil fields of some oil-producing countries, the overall supply recovery will still take time. In addition, it is not ruled out that during the negotiations, there may be local conflicts between the US and Iran, causing short-term geopolitical tensions.