全球液化天然气（LNG）产业正经历一场深刻重构。

The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry is undergoing a profound restructuring.

地缘政治冲突持续升级、能源转型步伐加快、技术壁垒不断加深，多重因素交织作用下，LNG市场价格大幅波动，基础设施利用率起伏不定，贸易格局加速调整。在此背景下，国内LNG产业面临新挑战，也迎来新机遇。多位业内专家近日在2026液化天然气大会上表示，LNG产业已告别快速增长期，进入需精耕细作的新阶段。

The escalation of geopolitical conflicts, the accelerated pace of energy transition, and the deepening of technological barriers have all interacted to cause significant fluctuations in the LNG market price, unpredictable fluctuations in infrastructure utilization rates, and rapid adjustments in trade patterns. Against this backdrop, the domestic LNG industry is facing new challenges while also encountering new opportunities. Several industry experts recently stated at the 2026 LNG Conference that the LNG industry has passed its period of rapid growth and has entered a new stage requiring meticulous management.

预测模型“难敌”市场变化

The predictive model "is no match for" market changes

当前，地缘政治冲突引发的短期剧烈波动与供应宽松带来的长期下行预期之间的矛盾，正在重塑LNG市场的运行逻辑。

Currently, the contradiction between the short-term sharp fluctuations caused by geopolitical conflicts and the long-term downward expectations brought about by supply relaxation is reshaping the operational logic of the LNG market.

从供应端看，全球LNG产能快速释放。中国石油学会理事长焦方正提供的一组数据显示，2025年全球LNG液化产能已增长至约5.1亿吨/年，增量主要集中在北美地区，美国、卡塔尔、澳大利亚依然保持全球前三大LNG出口国地位，其中美国LNG出口首次突破1亿吨。供应端的快速增长为价格下行埋下伏笔。

From the supply side, the global LNG production capacity has been rapidly increasing. According to a set of data provided by Jiao Fangzeng, the president of the China Petroleum Society, by 2025, the global LNG liquefaction capacity has increased to approximately 510 million tons per year. The growth mainly occurred in the North American region. The United States, Qatar, and Australia still maintain their positions as the top three LNG exporters globally. Among them, the LNG export volume of the United States exceeded 100 million tons for the first time. The rapid growth in the supply side has laid the groundwork for a price decline.

但地缘政治冲突不断冲击市场预期。“近期美以伊冲突导致霍尔木兹海峡通航受限、卡塔尔LNG暂停生产，全球近20%的LNG出口产能下线。最新消息显示，海湾地区一座LNG接收站遭遇攻击，国际气价应声跳涨。这种突发事件对市场的冲击，让所有基于供需模型的预测显得苍白。”焦方正说。

However, geopolitical conflicts have continuously disrupted market expectations. "The recent conflict between the United States and Iran has led to restricted navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the suspension of production at Qatar's LNG facilities. Nearly 20% of the global LNG export capacity has been halted. The latest news indicates that an LNG receiving station in the Gulf region was attacked, causing international gas prices to surge immediately. Such unexpected events have rendered all predictions based on supply and demand models seem rather insignificant." Jiao Fangzheng said.

国际燃气联盟副主席李雅兰分析价格趋势时指出，短期看，受伊朗局势影响，全球能源价格回落时间尚不确定。“但霍尔木兹海峡不可能永远被封锁，俄罗斯LNG已向市场增加供应量。”她判断，如果局势能在两三个月内缓解，今年后半年LNG价格将呈现温和回落；中期看，2023—2030年价格将持续下降，市场将由买方主导；长期看，定价将逐步贴近成本。

Li Yalan, the vice-chairperson of the International Gas Union, analyzed the price trend and pointed out that in the short term, due to the situation in Iran, the time for global energy prices to fall is uncertain. "However, the Strait of Hormuz cannot be permanently blocked. Russian LNG has increased supply to the market." She concluded that if the situation can be alleviated within two to three months, the LNG price will show a moderate decline in the second half of this year. In the medium term, from 2023 to 2030, the price will continue to drop, and the market will be dominated by buyers. In the long term, the pricing will gradually approach the cost.

市场不确定性在欧洲表现得尤为突出。匈牙利国家能源集团副首席执行官拉斯洛·弗里奇指出，为将一船LNG送到匈牙利，可能需要穿越3个国家、支付11次过境费用，运输成本在气价中占比相当可观。挪威工程院院士杨涛认为，这种不确定性将进一步抑制上游投资的积极性。

Market uncertainty is particularly prominent in Europe. Laszlo Friczi, the deputy CEO of the Hungarian National Energy Group, pointed out that to transport one shipload of LNG to Hungary, it might need to pass through three countries and pay 11 border crossing fees, with the transportation cost accounting for a considerable proportion of the gas price. Yang Tao, an academician of the Norwegian Academy of Engineering, believes that this uncertainty will further dampen the enthusiasm for upstream investment.

技术突破与短板并存

Technical breakthroughs coexist with weaknesses.

面对市场剧烈波动，LNG产业将目光投向更可控的领域。过去几年，中国LNG产业在核心装备自主化方面取得长足进步，但深层次的技术短板依然存在。

In the face of the intense market fluctuations, the LNG industry has turned its attention to more controllable areas. Over the past few years, China's LNG industry has made significant progress in the autonomy of core equipment, but deep-seated technical shortcomings still exist.

“经过多年努力，中国在LNG低温行业的装备材料方面已取得重要进展，基本上所有的动静设备、各类大宗材料以及低温阀门都实现百分之百国产。”中国石化天然气分公司副总经理丁乙指出，“尤其是LNG全自动装卸臂的突破，这款被称为‘中国大臂’的设备实现自动对接功能，改变了以往需要现场手工操作的作业模式。”

After years of efforts, China has made significant progress in the equipment and materials for the LNG cryogenic industry. Almost all mobile equipment, various bulk materials, and cryogenic valves are now 100% domestically produced. Dingtui Ding, the deputy general manager of Sinopec Natural Gas Branch, pointed out, "Notably, the breakthrough in the LNG fully automatic loading and unloading arm has been achieved. This device, known as the 'Chinese Giant Arm', has enabled automatic docking functionality, changing the previous manual operation mode at the site."

苏州纽威阀门副总工程师杨昭斌将国产化的视角深入到阀门层面。LNG的超低温特性对阀门提出极高要求，填料一旦结冰会导致密封失效，气化后体积膨胀约600倍又要求阀门具备自卸压功能。“通过有限元分析优化温度梯度、开发专用密封材料，国内厂家已经攻克这些技术难点，在密封可靠性方面得到保证。”

Yang Zhaobin, the deputy chief engineer of Suzhou Nuwei Valves, has delved into the domestication perspective at the valve level. The ultra-low temperature characteristics of LNG place extremely high demands on valves. If the packing freezes, it will cause the seal to fail. After gasification, the volume expands by approximately 600 times, which also requires valves to have self-unloading pressure function. "Through finite element analysis to optimize the temperature gradient and develop specialized sealing materials, domestic manufacturers have overcome these technical difficulties and ensured the reliability of the seal."

沈鼓集团副总工程师史金龙透露，在LNG装置冷剂压缩机专用叶轮模型级方面，目前设备最高效率可以做到87%，这一指标让国产压缩机在国际竞标中具备了竞争力。

Shi Jinlong, the deputy chief engineer of Shen Gu Group, disclosed that in the model stage of the special impeller for the refrigerant compressor in the LNG device, the current maximum efficiency of the equipment can reach 87%. This indicator enables domestic compressors to have competitiveness in international bidding.

在LNG技术不断突破的同时，LNG接收站面临的安全技术挑战和数字化软件“卡脖子”问题，都是行业发展存在的短板。

As LNG technology continues to advance, the safety technical challenges faced by LNG receiving stations and the "blockade" issues of digital software are all shortcomings in the development of the industry.

针对目前LNG接收站面临的安全技术挑战，中国工程院院士张来斌指出，低温管道多采用保冷结构，液体LNG泄漏后可在保温层内流动并气化，导致泄漏点难以精准定位早期识别能力不足。更棘手的是现有低温防护服难以兼顾高防护性和作业灵活性，长时间作业舒适性较差容易造成人员伤亡。

In response to the current safety technical challenges faced by LNG receiving stations, Chinese Academy of Engineering academician Zhang Laibin pointed out that most of the cryogenic pipelines adopt insulation structures. After the leakage of liquid LNG, it can flow within the insulation layer and vaporize, making it difficult to precisely locate the leakage point and resulting in insufficient early identification capabilities. What's more challenging is that the existing cryogenic protective suits are difficult to balance high protection performance and operational flexibility, and they are not very comfortable for long-term operations, which can easily lead to casualties.

美国国家工程院院士陈掌星则从数字化角度提出警示——应当将物理机理与人工智能结合，把数据与知识融合起来，解决现有模型的幻觉问题和可解释性难题。

Chen Zhanding, an academician of the National Academy of Engineering of the United States, raised a warning from the perspective of digitization - it is necessary to combine physical mechanisms with artificial intelligence, integrate data and knowledge, and solve the illusion problems and interpretability challenges of existing models.

融合发展的重要载体

An important carrier for integrated development

如果说保障当前供应安全的核心在于技术与装备的自主可控，那么决定产业未来命运的则是在能源转型大潮中的重新定位。

If ensuring current supply security mainly relies on the independent control of technology and equipment, then determining the future fate of the industry lies in its repositioning in the tide of energy transition.

李雅兰表示，天然气不是通往未来的桥梁，其自身就是未来的一部分。“过去十年，全球化石能源占比从82%降至80%，仅下降2个百分点，其中石油从32%降到29%，煤炭从28%降到26%，只有天然气稳中有升，占比从22%上升到25%，是化石能源中唯一增加的品种。未来世界需要更多能源，而天然气将在其中扮演长期的核心角色。”

Li Yalan stated that natural gas is not a bridge leading to the future; rather, it is itself a part of the future. "Over the past decade, the proportion of global fossil energy has decreased from 82% to 80%, a decrease of only 2 percentage points. Among them, oil has dropped from 32% to 29%, coal from 28% to 26%, while natural gas has remained stable and even increased, rising from 22% to 25%, making it the only fossil energy type that has increased. The world will need more energy in the future, and natural gas will play a long-term core role in this."

多位与会专家将目光投向LNG与新能源的融合发展。

Many of the attending experts focused their attention on the integration of LNG and new energy.

国家管网集团液化天然气公司副总经理仇山珊介绍了“新型能源质能网”的构想。“LNG接收站不再只是天然气的周转节点，而将成为氢、氨、甲醇等多种能源形态的转换枢纽。当西北风光绿电富余时可就地电解制氢，通过管道与LNG接收站相连转化为易于储运的绿色甲醇，实现物质流和能量流的双向灵活转换和时空运移。这一设想试图系统性解决可再生能源消纳与储运的核心瓶颈。”

Qiu Shanshan, the deputy general manager of the Liquefied Natural Gas Company of National Pipeline Group, introduced the concept of the "New Energy Energy-Quality Network". "LNG receiving stations will no longer merely be nodes for the circulation of natural gas; instead, they will become hubs for the conversion of various energy forms such as hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol. When there is surplus green electricity from the northwest, it can be electrolyzed to produce hydrogen on-site. This hydrogen can then be connected to the LNG receiving station through pipelines and converted into green methanol that is easy to store and transport, achieving two-way flexible conversion and spatial movement of material flow and energy flow. This concept aims to systematically address the core bottlenecks in the absorption and storage of renewable energy."

中国石油学会石油储运专业委员会副主任张超则描绘了“海上能源岛”的图景，以天然气和LNG作为底色和其他能源相融合。“将浮式风电、浮式光伏、CCUS设施与LNG平台结合，让海上设施成为一个自给自足并能向陆地输出多种能源产品的综合枢纽。”

Zhang Chao, the deputy director of the Petroleum Storage and Transportation Special Committee of the China Petroleum Society, has depicted the vision of an "offshore energy island", using natural gas and LNG as the base and integrating them with other energy sources. "Combining floating wind power, floating photovoltaic, CCUS facilities with LNG platforms, makes the offshore facilities a comprehensive hub that is self-sufficient and capable of outputting multiple energy products to the land."

技术层面的融合已经在推进。从冷能发电、冷水养殖到燃气电厂碳捕集示范，再到固态氧化物燃料电池研发，未来LNG产业将不再是一个“单打独斗”的行业。目前，国内首套自主研发的5兆瓦级冷能发电装置已在浙江LNG投产，总发电量超过2000万千瓦时；撬装天然气制氢装置已在佛山投用，液态氢实现全球最远距离跨洋运输。

The technological integration is already underway. From cold energy generation, cold water aquaculture to carbon capture demonstrations in gas power plants, and to the research and development of solid oxide fuel cells, the future LNG industry will no longer be an industry operating independently. Currently, the first domestically developed 5-megawatt cold energy generation device has been put into operation at the Zhejiang LNG plant, with a total power generation exceeding 200 million kilowatt-hours; the mobile natural gas hydrogen production unit has been put into use in Foshan, and liquid hydrogen has achieved the longest-distance transoceanic transportation globally.

用技术自主降低外部依赖，用跨界融合寻找新的增长空间成为与会专家共识。无论是“质能网”还是“能源岛”，从追求增长到谋求韧性，从被动应对到主动布局，LNG正在重新定义自己的边界。

The experts present at the meeting reached a consensus that reducing external dependence through technological autonomy and seeking new growth spaces through cross-border integration are the key approaches. Whether it is the "Energy Nexus" or the "Energy Island", from pursuing growth to seeking resilience, from responding passively to taking proactive measures, LNG is redefining its boundaries.