波斯湾冲突正在重塑全球能源版图。天然气供应遭受重创之际，亚洲和欧洲主要经济体纷纷重拾煤炭，同时加速布局可再生能源，一场深刻的能源战略转向正在悄然展开。

The conflict in the Persian Gulf is reshaping the global energy landscape. As natural gas supplies have been severely affected, major economies in Asia and Europe have resumed the use of coal and are accelerating the development of renewable energy. A profound shift in energy strategy is quietly unfolding.

高盛大宗商品研究全球联席主管Samantha Dart警告称："我们现在正面临第二次、规模巨大的能源供应冲击。如果你身处亚洲，再次经历这种情况，你可能会改变你的长期战略——更多地依赖煤炭，更长时间地依赖煤炭，更快地发展可再生能源，并减少对天然气的依赖。"这一判断，正在被市场行动逐一印证。

Samantha Dart, the global co-head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, warned: "We are currently facing a second, massive energy supply shock. If you are in Asia and experience this again, you might change your long-term strategy - relying more on coal, relying on coal for a longer period, developing renewable energy faster, and reducing reliance on natural gas." This judgment is being confirmed one by one by market actions.

从日本宣布扩大低效煤电使用，到印度要求煤电厂推迟检修、满负荷运转，再到欧洲多国重新评估煤电退出时间表，天然气作为"过渡燃料"的叙事正在加速瓦解。与此同时，资本市场已率先用脚投票——中国电池与新能源龙头企业股价大幅跑赢国际石油巨头。

From Japan's announcement of expanding the use of inefficient coal power, to India's requirement for coal power plants to postpone maintenance and operate at full capacity, and then to many European countries re-eva luating the timetable for phasing out coal power, the narrative of natural gas as a "transition fuel" is rapidly crumbling. At the same time, the capital market has taken the lead in voting with its feet - the stock prices of China's leading battery and new energy enterprises have outperformed those of international oil giants significantly.

天然气"过渡燃料"叙事破裂，煤炭需求强势回归

The narrative of "transition fuel" for natural gas has collapsed, while demand for coal has strongly rebounded.

伊朗战争引发的天然气供应冲击，是俄乌冲突之后不到四年内的第二次大规模能源危机。美国和以色列对伊朗的打击，以及随后针对卡塔尔拉斯拉凡工厂的报复性袭击，可能造成数年的供应中断。欧洲天然气基准价格目前约为每兆瓦时54欧元，已超过分析师认为将触发大规模煤电替代的50欧元阈值。