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摘要:国际动力煤价中连涨七天,逼近每吨150美元
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据CNBC 印尼频道9月3日发布的信息,在油价上涨和煤炭供应趋紧之际,煤炭价格继续飙升。 According to the information released by CNBC's Indonesia channel on September 3rd, amid rising oil prices and tightening coal supply, coal prices continued to soar. 路孚特(Refinitiv)数据显示, 昨日(9月2日, 星期三)的交易中,全球动力煤基准洲际交易所(ICE)纽卡斯尔动力煤期货次月到期交割的合约价格收盘于每吨148.9美元,上涨0.78%。呈现连续7个交易日持续上涨的态势,七天内价格累计上涨了7.6%,是自2026年6月11日以来的最高价。 According to Refinitiv data, in yesterday's (September 2, Wednesday) trading, the price of the next-month delivery contract for the global benchmark Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Newcastle Coal Futures closed at $148.9 per ton, up by 0.78%. It showed a continuous upward trend for 7 consecutive trading days, with the price rising by a cumulative 7.6% within 7 days, reaching the highest level since June 11, 2026. 煤炭价格上涨影响因素之一是得益于油价。昨日西德克萨斯中质油(WTI)收盘上涨近1%,达到每桶91.01美元,而布伦特原油则上涨约1%,至每桶95.63美元。 One of the factors influencing the increase in coal prices is the rise in oil prices. Yesterday, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed up nearly 1% to $91.01 per barrel, while Brent crude oil rose by approximately 1% to $95.63 per barrel. 欧洲煤炭市场走强,LNG危机与地缘政治成为催化剂 The European coal market is strengthening, and the LNG crisis along with geopolitical factors have served as the catalysts. 欧洲动力煤市场进入9月也走强。中东的地缘政治紧张局势、天然气储备的减少、天气干扰以及全球煤炭供应的收紧,再次提升了煤炭作为应对2026-2027年冬季能源需求的价值。 The European thermal coal market also strengthened in September. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, reduced natural gas reserves, weather disruptions, and the tightening of global coal supply have once again enhanced the value of coal as a solution for energy demand during the 2026-2027 winter season. 欧洲煤炭需求的增加主要由天然气市场驱动。中东冲突和霍尔木兹海峡的不确定性加剧了液化天然气供应的风险,而欧洲的天然气储备相对较低。 The increase in European coal demand is mainly driven by the natural gas market. The conflicts in the Middle East and the uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz have heightened the risks of liquefied natural gas supply, while the natural gas reserves in Europe are relatively low. 截至8月底,欧洲的天然气储备仅达到62%,这使得该地区在冬季提前到来或液化天然气供应中断的情况下容易面临短缺风险。这种情况导致冬季天然气价格上涨,使得燃煤发电厂相比天然气变得更加经济。 As of the end of August, Europe's natural gas reserves have only reached 62%. This makes the region vulnerable to shortage risks if winter arrives earlier or if liquefied natural gas supplies are disrupted. This situation has led to an increase in winter natural gas prices, making coal-fired power plants more economically viable compared to natural gas power plants. 欧洲煤炭价格上涨使得哥伦比亚和美国的煤炭出口再次具有竞争力。2026年二季度,美国煤炭出口量同比增长19.1%,达到2440万吨。在8月26日至9月1日期间,新奥尔良港煤炭价格也从85.5美元/吨飙升至92.9美元/吨。 The increase in European coal prices has made the coal exports from Colombia and the United States once again competitive. In the second quarter of 2026, the export volume of coal from the United States increased by 19.1% year-on-year, reaching 2.44 million tons. During the period from August 26th to September 1st, the price of coal at the New Orleans Port also soared from $85.5 per ton to $92.9 per ton. 现在欧洲煤炭前景非常依赖于天然气储量、中东液化天然气供应、冬季气温、可再生能源发电以及全球煤炭供应。如果冬季气温较为温和且液化天然气供应改善,煤炭价格上涨可能会缓解。然而,寒冷且无风的冬季,加上长期的液化天然气供应中断,可能会再次推高煤炭需求。 The future outlook for coal in Europe is highly dependent on natural gas reserves, the supply of liquefied natural gas from the Middle East, winter temperatures, renewable energy generation, and global coal supply. If the winter temperatures are relatively mild and the supply of liquefied natural gas improves, the increase in coal prices may be alleviated. However, a cold and windless winter, coupled with long-term disruptions in the supply of liquefied natural gas, could once again drive up the demand for coal. 这种情况表明,大西洋和亚洲的煤炭市场日益紧密相连。中东液化天然气(LNG)供应中断可能会波及欧洲天然气价格,从而提高燃煤发电厂的经济性,吸引来自美国和哥伦比亚的供应,并加剧与亚洲买家的竞争。 This situation indicates that the coal markets in the Atlantic and Asia are becoming increasingly closely linked. A disruption in the supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Middle East could affect European natural gas prices, thereby enhancing the economic viability of coal-fired power plants, attracting supplies from the United States and Colombia, and intensifying competition with Asian buyers. 全球煤炭出口供应日益趋紧 The global supply of coal exports is becoming increasingly tight. 南非和印尼的出口供应中断,加上中国进口需求的增加,加剧了海运煤炭市场的竞争。 The disruption of export supplies from South Africa and Indonesia, coupled with the increased import demand from China, has intensified the competition in the maritime coal market. 在南非,通往理查兹湾的铁路中断导致供应紧张。与此同时,巴基斯坦在过去一周成为南非最大的煤炭买家,这使得与欧洲买家的竞争变得更加激烈。 In South Africa, the disruption of the railway leading to Richards Bay has led to a shortage of supplies. At the same time, Pakistan has become South Africa's largest coal buyer in the past week, which has made competition with European buyers even more intense. 8月21日,南非运煤的29节火车车厢脱轨,导致两条线路关闭。Transnet于8月25日部分恢复了通往理查兹湾煤炭码头(RBCT)的铁路交通。 On August 21st, 29 coal-carrying railway carriages in South Africa derailed, causing two lines to be closed. Transnet partially resumed railway traffic to the Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) on August 25th. 理查兹湾煤港出口量的增加以及铁路运煤事故导致进港交付量减少,使港口库存下降近10%。南非6000千卡/千克煤炭价格已上升至每吨116美元以上。 The increase in the export volume of coal from Richards Bay Port and the railway coal transportation accidents led to a decrease in the inbound delivery volume, causing the port inventory to drop by nearly 10%. The price of 6000 kcal/kg coal in South Africa has risen to over $116 per ton. 在印度尼西亚,因为生产计划与预算(RKAB)配额审批的延迟,以及由于巴里托河水位较低导致的运输中断,也限制了出口供应。 In Indonesia, the export supply was further restricted due to the delay in the approval of production plans and budgets (RKAB), as well as the transportation disruptions caused by the low water level of the Barito River. 印尼加里曼丹主要运煤的卡普阿斯河干涸,煤炭驳船无法航行。印尼能源与矿产资源部(ESDM)已就卡普阿斯河干涸现象发声。卡普阿斯河本身是煤炭驳船运输的主要通道之一。 The main coal transportation river in Kalimantan, Kapuas River, has dried up, preventing coal barges from navigating. The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has spoken out about the drying up of the Kapuas River. The Kapuas River is one of the main channels for coal barge transportation. 卡普阿斯河目前已经干涸,因为过去四个多月一直处于长期干旱之中。其影响是,运送煤炭的驳船也“停滞”了,无法航行。就这一情况,能源与矿产资源部副部长尤利奥特·坦松驳斥了关于驳船运营受阻是由于生产配额限制政策的传言。他强调,现场的主要问题纯粹是由于河道水深急剧缩减的客观因素所致。 The Capua River is currently dry as it has been experiencing a prolonged drought for over four months. As a result, the barges transporting coal have also "stalled" and are unable to navigate. Regarding this situation, Deputy Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Julioth Tanzon refuted the rumor that the operational disruption of the barges was due to the production quota restriction policy. He emphasized that the main problem on the spot was purely caused by the sharp reduction in the river's water depth. 该河流流量的下降直接影响了煤炭的运输,尤其是在东加里曼丹及其周边地区。据报道,运输煤炭的船只被滞留,将被迫等待水文条件恢复,以便继续让运煤船只航行前往目的地。 The decline in the flow of this river has directly affected the transportation of coal, especially in East Kalimantan and its surrounding areas. It is reported that ships transporting coal have been stranded and will be forced to wait until the hydrological conditions improve before they can resume their journey to their destinations. |
















