据CNBC 印尼频道9月2日发布的信息，昨日(9月1日)国际市场动力煤价格飙升至两个月来的高点，世界油价上涨和煤炭供应问题推动了这一涨势。

According to the information released by CNBC's Indonesia channel on September 2nd, the international market price of thermal coal soared to its highest level in two months yesterday (September 1st). The rise in world oil prices and the issue of coal supply contributed to this increase.

路孚特(Refinitiv)数据显示， 昨日(9月2日，周二)的交易中，全球动力煤基准洲际交易所(ICE)纽卡斯尔动力煤期货10月到期的合约价格上涨至每吨147.75美元，单日上涨了2.6%，直逼150美元/吨关口，达到了自今年6月11日即两个多月以来的最高水平，也延续了之前持续上涨的行情，连续六天内价格累计上涨了6.8%。

According to Refinitiv data, in yesterday's (September 2nd, Tuesday) trading, the contract for the global benchmark Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Newcastle Coal Futures for October delivery rose to $147.75 per ton, increasing by 2.6% on the day, approaching the $150 per ton mark. It reached the highest level since June 11th this year, which has been two months ago, and has continued the previous upward trend, with the price rising by a cumulative 6.8% over the past six days.

煤炭价格的上涨之一得益于近期油价的支撑。全球能源需求的持续高涨，以及煤炭供应方面仍存的担忧，推动了这一大涨趋势。

One of the reasons for the increase in coal prices is the support from the recent rise in oil prices. The continuous growth in global energy demand, along with the remaining concerns regarding coal supply, has driven this upward trend.

周二(9月1日)交易中，布伦特原油价格收涨4.6%，报94.65美元/桶，而WTI原油上涨0.6%，报90.77美元/桶。两天内，WTI和布伦特原油价格均飙升了6%。

On Tuesday (September 1st), during trading, the price of Brent crude oil rose by 4.6% to $94.65 per barrel, while WTI crude oil increased by 0.6% to $90.77 per barrel. Over the course of two days, both WTI and Brent crude oil prices soared by 6%.

煤炭仍是全球最大的发电来源

Coal remains the largest source of electricity generation worldwide.

国际能源署(IEA)最近指出，煤炭仍是全球最大的发电来源，2026年煤电产量预计将接近11,000太瓦时。电力需求的激增也减缓了用可再生能源替代煤炭的进程。

The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently stated that coal remains the largest source of electricity generation globally. The coal power output is expected to approach 11,000 terawatt-hours by 2026. The surge in electricity demand has also slowed down the process of replacing coal with renewable energy.

到2030年，国际能源署预计煤炭仍将是最大的发电能源，而目前还没有替代能源能够以同等规模取而代之。

By 2030, the International Energy Agency predicts that coal will remain the largest source of electricity generation, and there are currently no alternative energy sources that can replace it on the same scale.

中东的长期冲突也进一步巩固了对煤炭的需求前景，因为这导致了全球液化天然气供应的紧张，并推高了能源价格。

The long-term conflicts in the Middle East have further strengthened the outlook for coal demand, as these conflicts have led to a shortage of global liquefied natural gas supply and pushed up energy prices.

在印度，据报道有45座燃煤发电厂的煤炭库存处于极低水平。这种情况发生在强厄尔尼诺现象导致电力需求增加，而季风降雨又扰乱了煤炭供应之际。

In India, it is reported that the coal stocks of 45 coal-fired power plants have reached extremely low levels. This situation occurred when a strong El Niño phenomenon led to an increase in electricity demand, while the monsoon rains disrupted the coal supply.

8月份，印度国有煤炭有限公司煤炭产量仅为4750万吨，同比下降5.7%。本财年的4月至8月，该公司煤炭产量累计为2.675亿吨，同比下降4.5%。

In August, the coal output of the Indian State-owned Coal Corporation was only 475 million tons, a decrease of 5.7% compared to the previous year. For the period from April to August of this fiscal year, the company's coal output totaled 267.5 million tons, a decrease of 4.5% compared to the previous year.

煤炭仍然是印度主要的电力来源。在本财年第一季度(2026年4月至6月)，印度硬煤和褐煤发电厂的电量贡献了全国69.54%的电力供应。

Coal remains the main source of electricity in India. In the first quarter of the current fiscal year (from April to June 2026), the electricity generated by hard coal and lignite power plants accounted for 69.54% of the country's total power supply.

印度电厂煤炭库存降至四年来低点

Coal stocks at Indian power plants have dropped to their lowest level in four years.

外媒8月28日报道的消息，印度燃煤发电厂煤炭库存已降至今年以来的最低水平，随着该国进入季风季节，使得电厂可用的缓冲煤炭储备变得更加紧张。

According to a report by foreign media on August 28th, the coal stockpile at India's coal-fired power plants has dropped to its lowest level this year. As the country enters the monsoon season, the available buffer coal reserves for the power plants have become even more strained.

印度中央电力局(CEA)的数据显示，截至8月24日，印度燃煤发电厂储存的煤炭约2836万吨，大约相当于9.7天的消耗量，而合理的库存水平应为19.4天。也就是说，目前发电厂的煤炭库存仅相当于规定煤炭供应量的大约一半。

Data from the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) of India shows that as of August 24th, the coal stored in India's coal-fired power plants was approximately 28.36 million tons, which is roughly equivalent to 9.7 days of consumption. The reasonable inventory level should be 19.4 days. That is to say, the current coal stock in the power plants is only about half of the stipulated coal supply.

季节也引发了额外的担忧，因为印度正处于6月至9月的季风季节。强降雨可能会干扰采矿作业、煤炭运输和铁路交通，从而可能减弱向发电厂的供应，而此时节的火力发电对于满足电力需求仍然至关重要。

The season also raises additional concerns, as India is currently in the monsoon season from June to September. Heavy rainfall could disrupt mining operations, coal transportation, and railway traffic, potentially weakening the supply to power plants. This period's thermal power generation is still crucial for meeting electricity demands.

历史数据的比较显示，今年电厂的煤炭库存确实已大幅下降。截至8月24日，库存总量仅2836万吨，是四年来的最低水平，仅略高于2022年记录的2811万吨。2023年同日，库存量上升至2955万吨，2024年增至3752万吨，2025年大幅攀升至4818万吨。

The comparison of historical data shows that the coal inventory of power plants has indeed dropped significantly this year. As of August 24th, the total inventory was only 28.36 million tons, the lowest level in four years, only slightly higher than the 28.11 million tons recorded in 2022. On the same date in 2023, the inventory rose to 29.55 million tons, in 2024 it increased to 37.52 million tons, and in 2025 it soared to 48.18 million tons.

现有的库存能够支持的发电天数也大幅下降。目前的供应量估计可维持9.7天的所需，而2022年同期为10.8天，2023年为11.2天，2024年为13.8天，2025年为17天。

The number of days that the current inventory can support power generation has also significantly decreased. The current supply estimate can cover the required amount for 9.7 days, compared to 10.8 days in the same period of 2022, 11.2 days in 2023, 13.8 days in 2024, and 17 days in 2025.

而更引人关注的是，在煤炭供应趋紧的同时，火电发电量却保持高位。今年强劲的电力需求和较弱的水电出力，增加了对燃煤发电的需求。尽管印度也正迅速扩大其可再生能源装机容量，但煤炭仍是印度电力系统的支柱。当可再生能源发电量波动时，也只有火力发电厂能够提供可靠的电力。

What is more noteworthy is that, while coal supply is becoming tight, the electricity generation from thermal power plants remains at a high level. The strong electricity demand this year and the relatively weak hydropower output have increased the demand for coal-fired power generation. Although India is also rapidly expanding its installed capacity of renewable energy, coal remains the backbone of India's power system. When the output of renewable energy fluctuates, only thermal power plants can provide reliable electricity.

7月份印尼煤炭出口继续减少

In July, Indonesia's coal exports continued to decline.

印度尼西亚国家统计局(BPS)发布的最新统计数据显示，2026年1-7月，印尼煤炭出口量累计为27058.3万吨，比去年同期的28089.58万吨减少1031.28万吨，同比下降3.7%。其中，海关序号2701项下的煤炭出口量为20147万吨，比去年同期的21471万吨1324万吨，同比下降6.2%。

The latest statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics of Indonesia (BPS) show that from January to July 2026, Indonesia's coal export volume totaled 27,058.3 million tons, a decrease of 1,031.28 million tons compared to 28,089.58 million tons in the same period last year, representing a year-on-year decline of 3.7%. Among them, the coal export volume under customs code 2701 was 2,014.7 million tons, a decrease of 1,324 million tons compared to 2,147.1 million tons in the same period last year, representing a year-on-year decline of 6.2%.

7月份，印尼煤炭出口同比环比全都出现下降，当月出口量为3893.51万吨，同比减少6.6%，环比下降2.8%。

In July, both the year-on-year and month-on-month exports of coal from Indonesia declined. The export volume for that month was 389.351 million tons, a decrease of 6.6% year-on-year and 2.8% month-on-month.