MTB:煤价暴力拉涨,囤煤风险与机遇并存
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摘要:MTB:煤价暴力拉涨,囤煤风险与机遇并存

关键词:MTB 煤价 囤煤
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山西主产区的无烟煤、主焦精煤竞拍一路疯狂飙升,甚至飙出了单日单吨暴涨595元/吨的惊天纪录!单日挂牌十几万吨、几十万吨瞬间被抢得毛都不剩。成功带动了动力煤的抢购热潮,现在的贸易商每天都和玩蹦极一样,价格上涨也担心,下降也担心,反正整天提心掉胆。

In the main production areas of Shanxi Province, the bidding prices for anthracite coal and high-quality coking coal have been soaring wildly. They even reached an astonishing record of a 595-yuan-per-ton increase per day! The daily listed quantity of tens of thousands of tons or even hundreds of thousands of tons was quickly snapped up, leaving nothing left. This successfully triggered a buying frenzy for thermal coal. Now, trading companies are like doing bungee jumping every day. They worry about the price going up and they also worry about it going down. In any case, they are constantly on edge.


面对这波猝不及防的“暴力拉涨”,咱朋友圈的贸易商老铁们彻底分化成了两派: 一派大喊:“不囤就没机会了,上车!” 另一派直嘀咕:“这价格太虚了,高位接盘就是找死!” 暴涨之下,现在到底能不能囤煤?到底是天大的机遇,还是包着糖衣的砒霜?

In the face of this unexpected "violent price increase", the traders in our circle of friends have completely split into two camps: One group shouts: "Don't stockpile, there will be no chance. Get in!" The other group simply mutters: "This price is too unrealistic. Buying at a high price is like taking one's own life!" Under the circumstances of this sharp price increase, can we still stockpile coal now? Is it a huge opportunity or just a sugar-coated poison?


山西煤价可能要破3000元

The coal price in Shanxi may fall below 3,000 yuan.


这一波暴力拉涨,确实让提前囤货的老铁赚得盆满钵满。背后的逻辑也很简单:

This round of price hikes has indeed allowed those who had already stockpiled goods in advance to make huge profits. The underlying logic is quite simple:


产地资源硬核紧缺:环保安全检查收紧,优质主焦精煤现货极其紧张,矿上库存低得可怜,形成了强支撑;陕西、内蒙虽然不缺货,带也被山西老大哥带着一起飞。

Production resources are extremely scarce: Environmental and safety inspections have tightened, and there is an extremely tight supply of high-quality coking coal. The mines have very low inventories, which forms a strong support; although Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia do not have shortages, they are all following the lead of the big brother from Shanxi.


下游刚需被迫补库:2026年8月26日0时起,山东、河北市场主流钢厂对焦炭采购价湿熄上调100元/吨,干熄上调110元/吨。焦化厂第二轮提涨全面落地,高炉小幅复产,面对低库存,焦钢企业哪怕明知价格高,也只能硬着头皮竞价抢货;真是验了那句老话,买菜的还是犟不过卖菜的。

Downstream demand is forced to replenish stocks: Starting from 0:00 on August 26, 2026, the mainstream steel mills in Shandong and Hebei markets raised the purchase price of coke by 100 yuan per ton for wet cooling and by 110 yuan per ton for dry cooling. The second round of price hikes by the coking plants have been fully implemented. High-temperature blast furnaces have resumed production slightly. Facing low inventories, even though the coke and steel enterprises know the prices are high, they still have no choice but to force themselves to bid and scramble for goods; this really proves the old saying that those who buy vegetables cannot defeat those who sell vegetables.


资金狂欢烘托气氛:蒙煤高溢价成交、资金和多头交织炒作,短期的赚钱效应被无限放大。大量资金扎堆涌入煤炭市场。

The financial frenzy boosts the atmosphere: high premium transactions of coal resources, the interweaving of funds and bulls in speculation, and the short-term profit effect has been infinitely magnified. A large amount of funds have flocked into the coal market.


如果你手头有优质的长协渠道,或者手里拿着低价一手资源,快进快出做短期搬运,现在的确是难得的获利窗口期。

If you have access to high-quality long-term contracts or hold low-price first-hand resources, and if you can quickly acquire and dispose of them in a short period, then right now is indeed a rare opportunity for profit.


但煤炭宝必须提醒大家:现在的行情,风险已经远远大于机遇!你以为是全面牛市?其实市场早有分歧,这波由情绪和炒作堆起来的“虚胖”,分分钟就会迎来瀑布式补跌!富贵险中求,但别把命搭进去。

However, Coal Treasure must remind everyone: The current market situation shows that risks are far greater than opportunities! You think it's a universal bull market? In fact, there has already been disagreement in the market. This wave of "excess fat" built up by emotions and speculation will soon face a waterfall-style correction! Seek fortune in danger, but don't risk your life.


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