随着中国、日本、韩国等主要买家为满足夏季用电高峰而增加采购，7月亚洲动力煤进口量有望连续第三个月实现增长。不过，作为全球第二大煤炭进口国，印度动力煤进口量预计仍将延续下行走势，成为为数不多的进口量下降的国家。

As major buyers such as China, Japan and South Korea increase their purchases to meet the peak electricity demand in summer, the import volume of thermal coal in Asia is expected to increase for the third consecutive month in July. However, as the world's second-largest coal importer, India's import volume of thermal coal is expected to continue its downward trend, making it one of the few countries with a decreasing import volume.

亚洲海运动力煤贸易量约占全球贸易总量的90%。据Kpler船舶追踪数据显示，2026年7月份，亚洲地区动力煤进口量预计将达到7537.31万吨，同比增加2.14%，环比增长3.41%。动力煤主要用于发电，今年以来，因其相比于液化天然气(LNG)更具价格优势，在亚洲地区需求持续走强。受中东地缘冲突战争影响，占全球LNG供应约20%的卡塔尔出货量基本中断，导致现货价格飙升，进一步凸显了煤炭的经济性。

The trade volume of thermal coal for maritime transportation in Asia accounts for approximately 90% of the global total. According to Kpler's vessel tracking data, in July 2026, the import volume of thermal coal in the Asian region is expected to reach 753,731 tons, an increase of 2.14% year-on-year and 3.41% month-on-month. Thermal coal is mainly used for power generation. Since this year, due to its greater price advantage compared to liquefied natural gas (LNG), the demand for it in the Asian region has continued to strengthen. Affected by the geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, the shipment volume of Qatar, which accounts for approximately 20% of global LNG supply, has basically been suspended, causing the spot price to soar, further highlighting the economic nature of coal.

产量受限推高中国进口

Production constraints have driven up China's imports

根据Kpler数据，7月份，中国动力煤进口量预计为2505.9万吨，同比增长2.56%，环比下降5.41%。在中国，动力煤与LNG在发电领域并不构成直接竞争，而煤炭进口增加的主因是国内产量受限以及发电量上升。

According to Kpler data, in July, China's coal imports were expected to be 250.59 million tons, an increase of 2.56% year-on-year and a decrease of 5.41% month-on-month. In China, coal and LNG do not compete directly in the power generation sector. The main reason for the increase in coal imports is the domestic production constraints and the rise in power generation.

统计局数据显示，受5月22日山西煤矿重大事故后安全检查影响，6月原煤产量同比下降9.7%至3.8亿吨。尽管国内煤炭产量预计在未来数月回升，但进口水平可能依然强劲。

Statistics show that due to the safety inspections following the major accident at a Shanxi coal mine on May 22nd, the output of raw coal in June decreased by 9.7% year-on-year to 380 million tons. Although domestic coal production is expected to rebound in the coming months, the import level may remain strong.

6月份，中国火力发电量(以煤为主，天然气占极小比例)同比增长0.5%，1-6月发电量同比增长2.9%。据中电联发布的《中国电力行业年度发展报告2026》，2026年全国全社会用电量预计同比增长5%至6%。尽管可再生能源部署速度加快，但仍不足以满足这一电力需求增速。

In June, China's thermal power generation (primarily using coal, with a negligible proportion of natural gas) increased by 0.5% year-on-year, and the total power generation from January to June increased by 2.9% year-on-year. According to the "Annual Development Report of China's Power Industry 2026" released by the China Electricity Council, the national total electricity consumption is expected to increase by 5% to 6% in 2026. Although the deployment of renewable energy has accelerated, it still cannot meet this growth rate of power demand.

日韩夏季进口增加

Imports from Japan and South Korea increased in the summer.

数据显示，7月份，日本动力煤进口量预计为926.8万吨，环比增长31%，创今年2月份以来新高。韩国7月进口量预计达812.8万吨，高于6月的637.9万吨，创去年9月份以来新高。

The data shows that in July, Japan's coal imports were expected to reach 92.68 million tons, an increase of 31% compared with the previous month, reaching a new high since February this year. South Korea's imports in July are expected to be 81.28 million tons, higher than 63.79 million tons in June, and reaching a new high since September last year.

随着亚洲用煤需求整体走强，显著推升动力煤价格。截至7月24日当周，澳大利亚纽卡斯尔港6000大卡动力煤价格升至133美元/吨以上，为四周以来新高。据了解，澳洲高卡煤主要供应日韩市场，而中国买家则更青睐印尼、俄罗斯及澳大利亚低卡煤。

As the overall coal demand in Asia has strengthened, the price of thermal coal has significantly risen. As of the week ending July 24th, the price of 6000-kilogram coal with a calorific value of 6000 kcal per kilogram at the Newcastle Port in Australia has exceeded $133 per ton, reaching a new high in the past four weeks. It is known that high-calorific coal from Australia is mainly supplied to the markets of Japan and South Korea, while Chinese buyers prefer low-calorific coal from Indonesia, Russia and Australia.

印度进口降至低位

India's imports have dropped to a low level.

亚洲地区部分国家动力煤进口量呈现下降趋势，部分是由于价格上涨。7月份，印度海运动力煤进口量预计降至1150.54万吨，低于6月的1204.8万吨，连续第三个月下降，创年内新低。

The import volume of thermal coal in some countries in the Asian region has shown a downward trend, partly due to the increase in prices. In July, India's imported thermal coal by sea is expected to drop to 1150.54 million tons, lower than 1204.8 million tons in June, marking the third consecutive month of decline and reaching an annual low.

因雨季降雨量偏弱导致电力需求创历史新高，若海运煤炭价格走低，或将带动印度买家增加进口。另外，近期印度国内煤炭供应承压，截至7月中旬，电厂存煤可用天数降至14天，远低于通常情况下的3-4周。

Due to the weak rainfall during the rainy season, electricity demand has reached an all-time high. If the price of imported coal by sea decreases, it may encourage Indian buyers to increase their imports. Additionally, recently, the domestic coal supply in India has been under pressure. As of mid-July, the available days of coal stock in power plants have dropped to 14 days, which is much lower than the usual 3-4 weeks.

近期，随着印尼煤价小幅松动，未来几周印度电厂进口需求有望增加;但进口量若要大幅回升，或需要价格出现更持续的下跌趋势。

Recently, with the slight easing of coal prices in Indonesia, the import demand of power plants in India is expected to increase in the coming weeks. However, for the import volume to rebound significantly, a more sustained decline in prices would be required.