据CNBC 印度尼西亚频道7月26日发布的信息，国际市场动力煤价格上周再次走强，此前曾在6月底触及四个月的最低水平。路孚特(Refinitiv)数据显示， 7月24日，全球动力煤基准洲际交易所(ICE)纽卡斯尔动力煤期货次月到期交割合约(NCFMc2)价格交收于每吨135.4美元，相较于7月10日的收盘价每吨128.75美元上涨5.17%。

According to the information released by CNBC's Indonesia channel on July 26th, the international market price of thermal coal strengthened again last week. Previously, it had reached its lowest level in four months at the end of June. Data from Refinitiv shows that on July 24th, the delivery contract for the next month's expiration of the global thermal coal benchmark Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Newcastle Thermal Coal Futures (NCFMc2) was priced at $135.4 per ton, an increase of 5.17% compared to the closing price of $128.75 per ton on July 10th.

上周煤炭价格温和上涨。从前一周末7月17日的每吨133.35美元变动到7月20日的每吨133.75美元，然后在周末前保持在每吨134-135美元的范围内，该价格成为近一个月来的最高水平。

Last week, the price of coal rose moderately. It changed from $133.35 per ton at the end of the previous week (July 17) to $133.75 per ton on July 20. Then, before the weekend, it remained within the range of $134 - $135 per ton. This price became the highest level in the past month.

这次价格上升主要是由世界上最大的动力煤出口国印尼的供应中断所引发的。干燥的天气阻碍了加里曼丹巴里托河(Barito River)上的煤炭运输，这条河流是向出口港运输煤炭的主要通道之一。水位下降使得驳船无法以正常容量运营，而一些矿业公司则报告称在部分发货量上设置了不可抗力条件。

This price increase was mainly caused by the supply disruption in Indonesia, the world's largest exporter of thermal coal. The dry weather hindered the coal transportation on the Barito River in Kalimantan, which is one of the main channels for transporting coal to export ports. The drop in water levels prevented barges from operating at their normal capacity, and some mining companies reported setting force majeure conditions for certain shipments.

物流中断引发了对短期内出口延迟的担忧。市场随后将这种供应风险纳入价格，尽管没有出现强劲需求增长的情况，而煤炭合同价格仍有所上涨。

The disruption in logistics has raised concerns about the potential delay in exports in the short term. The market then incorporated this supply risk into prices, despite the absence of strong growth in demand, and the contract prices for coal still rose.

还有来自全球能源市场的额外支持。由于中东地缘政治紧张局势加剧，油价飙升。油价上涨通常会增强能源商品的情绪，因为这提高了对全球能源供应风险的感知，资金流入能源部门也支撑了煤炭价格。

There is also additional support from the global energy market. Due to the intensification of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, oil prices have soared. An increase in oil prices usually boosts the sentiment of energy commodities, as it raises the perception of risks to global energy supply, and the inflow of funds into the energy sector also supports the price of coal.

另外，从中期来看，市场参与者也开始关注印度的变化，印度是世界上煤炭消费增长最快的国家之一。能源经济与金融分析研究所(IEEFA)于7月22日发布的报告认为，印度对进口动力煤的依赖在未来几年可能会面临供应挑战。

Furthermore, in the medium term, market participants have also begun to pay attention to the changes in India. India is one of the countries with the fastest growth in coal consumption in the world. The report released by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) on July 22nd suggests that India's reliance on imported thermal coal may face supply challenges in the coming years.

IEEFA解释说，澳大利亚作为世界上最大的动力煤出口国，继续下调出口预测至下一个十年的初期。许多生产商面临运营成本增加、露天煤矿剥采比(Strip Ratio)日益增加以及矿山关闭的情况。例如Yancoal的Ashton矿山由于技术问题和运营风险，计划于2028年停止运营。新南威尔士州政府也表示不会批准新的动力煤矿山的开发。

IEEFA explained that as the world's largest exporter of thermal coal, Australia has continued to lower its export forecast until the beginning of the next decade. Many producers are facing increased operating costs, rising strip ratios in open-pit mines, and mine closures. For instance, Yancoal's Ashton mine, due to technical issues and operational risks, plans to cease operations in 2028. The New South Wales government has also stated that it will not approve the development of new thermal coal mines.

来自需求方的压力在欧洲也有所体现。蒙特尔的报告提到莱茵河的货船运营商削减了75%的货物装载量，因为水位接近最低记录。理论上，这种情况可能会干扰向德国及周边地区发电厂的煤炭供应。

Pressure from the demand side is also evident in Europe. Monteil's report indicates that the cargo ship operators on the Rhine River have reduced their cargo loading volume by 75% due to the water level approaching its lowest record. In theory, this situation could disrupt the supply of coal to power plants in Germany and surrounding areas.

然而，其对国际贸易的影响尚未引发新的需求。阿姆斯特丹-鹿特丹-安特卫普(ARA)地区的利用率实际上选择了依赖现有的库存。ARA港口的煤炭库存量达到约400万吨，为6周来的最高水平。这也减少了在河运限制仍然昂贵的条件下购买现货的需求。

However, its impact on international trade has not yet triggered new demands. The utilization rate in the Amsterdam-Holten-Antwerp (ARA) region actually chose to rely on existing inventories. The coal stockpile at the ARA ports reached approximately 4 million tons, the highest level in six weeks. This also reduced the demand for purchasing spot coal under the condition that river transportation remains expensive.

交易数据也表明，煤炭价格的反弹仍然属于恢复阶段，而非进入新的上涨趋势。根据追踪动力煤期货合约的基准价格，截至7 月 24 日的月度价格约为每吨 130.6 美元，比上个月下降了 8.8%。但按年计算，仍然高出去年同期约 14.8%。

The transaction data also indicate that the rebound in coal prices is still in the recovery stage rather than entering a new upward trend. According to the benchmark price of the power coal futures contract, the monthly price as of July 24 was approximately $130.6 per ton, a decrease of 8.8% compared to the previous month. However, when calculated on an annual basis, it is still about 14.8% higher than the same period last year.