这几天港口去库，是因为前几天封港积压导致，并非需求增加导致。台风“红霞”北上，同时西南季风爆发，高温暂时消退，沿海还有近一周的降雨，会对电煤日耗形成新一轮压制。这两天煤炭市场“跌不动”的观点开始增多，甚至有可能刺激北方港口煤价下一周探涨。但如果在这个点儿上探涨，那绝对是三天乐的行情，也是市场一厢情愿的行情。因为市场的利空因素又开始显现。

The reason for the recent increase in coal shipments from the port is due to the congestion caused by the previous port closure, rather than an increase in demand. Typhoon "Hongxia" is moving northward, while the southwest monsoon has erupted, and the high temperature has temporarily subsided. There will also be nearly a week of rainfall along the coast. This will put another round of pressure on the daily coal consumption. The view that the coal market "won't fall" has become more preva lent in recent days, and it may even stimulate a rise in coal prices at northern ports next week. However, if there is a rise at this point, it would definitely be a three-day pleasure market, and it would be a market scenario that is purely wishful thinking. Because the negative factors in the market are beginning to emerge again.

前几天刚说了美伊局势缓和与产地超产死灰复燃，这些都是对煤炭市场最为致命的变量，遗憾的是这两个变量都发生了变化。

Just a few days ago, we mentioned that the situation between the US and Iran has eased and the problem of overproduction in the coal-producing regions has resurfaced. These are the most critical variables affecting the coal market. Unfortunately, both of these variables have changed.

先说美伊局势，美军暂停对伊朗空袭，在阿曼和巴基斯坦的斡旋下，美伊要恢复谈判。周一原油估计开盘大跌。伊朗的总统和外交部长早就想谈判了，只是过不了革命卫队这一关。最终的结果就是伊朗一月上一当，当当都一样，因为至今为止还没出现过在战场上拿不到的东西，能在谈判桌上拿到。美国就靠空中打击永远也解决不了伊朗问题，派遣地面部队在中期选举前是不可能的。最终的结果基本上已经确定：打打停停，等川子熬过11月份的中期选举，腾出手来，伊朗现有体系最终将彻底被耗尽。

Let's start with the situation between the US and Iran. The US has suspended its air strikes against Iran. With the mediation efforts of Oman and Pakistan, the US and Iran are set to resume negotiations. The estimate for crude oil prices on Monday is expected to plummet. The president and foreign minister of Iran have long wanted to negotiate, but they couldn't get past the Revolutionary Guards. The final outcome is that Iran was tricked in January and got the same result every time, because so far nothing that couldn't be obtained on the battlefield has been achievable at the negotiation table. The US can never solve the Iran issue through air strikes alone; sending ground troops before the mid-term elections is impossible. The final outcome is basically certain: intermittent attacks, waiting for Trump to survive the mid-term elections in November and free up his hands, the current system of Iran will eventually be completely exhausted.

美国对伊朗动武道爷总结大致有5点：1.杀死普通伊朗领导人，这不是主要目标。2.削弱伊朗军事能力，阻止伊朗成为中东地区超级力量。3.举止伊朗核能力，尤其以色列，绝对不会允许伊朗有核能力。4.如果有机会，就“改变伊朗政权”，从根本上解决问题。5.改变不了政权，就通过军事压力，让伊朗失去军事能力，并迫使其接受新的安全规则，消除中东的危险。至于说网上说的那些重建美元信用的等等一系列言论，只是军事行动的必然结果。

The main points summarized by the US regarding its military action against Iran are as follows: 1. Killing ordinary Iranian leaders is not the main objective. 2. Weakening Iran's military capabilities and preventing Iran from becoming a superpower in the Middle East. 3. Controlling Iran's nuclear capabilities, especially for Israel, we will definitely not allow Iran to have nuclear capabilities. 4. If possible, "change the Iranian regime" to fundamentally solve the problem. 5. If the regime cannot be changed, then through military pressure, make Iran lose its military capabilities and force it to accept new security rules, eliminating the danger in the Middle East. As for the various remarks online such as "rebuilding the credit of the US dollar" and so on, they are merely the inevitable outcome of the military action.

为什么说谈判最终不可能成功：我们现在所看到的霍尔木兹海峡问题，其实是最小的问题。最大的问题是伊朗的浓缩铀，这才是无解的，以色列和美国是绝对不允许这东西在伊朗这片土地存在。按美国的意思就地稀释或转移到第三国。但浓缩铀伊朗国家战略和民族尊严的象征，稀释或转移对革命卫队来说这是战略退让，他们可能会批评政府：丧失国家尊严，被西方施压成功，牺牲战略筹码。对伊朗领导层来说最大的困境不是核技术或军事能力，而如何向国内民众和国际社会进行“解释”。以此来继续维持政权合法性的政治叙事。也就是说，道爷认为伊朗现在一旦在谈判中放弃浓缩铀，现在的总统和外长轻则被软禁，重则有生命危险。

Why can't the negotiations succeed in the end: The issue we are currently seeing regarding the Strait of Hormuz is actually the least significant problem. The biggest problem is Iran's uranium enrichment. This is an unsolvable issue. Israel and the United States will absolutely not allow this thing to exist in Iran. According to the United States' plan, it should be diluted on-site or transferred to a third country. But uranium enrichment is a symbol of Iran's national strategy and national dignity. Dilution or transfer would be a strategic retreat for the Revolutionary Guards. They might criticize the government: losing national dignity, being pressured by the West successfully, sacrificing strategic assets. For the Iranian leadership, the biggest dilemma is not nuclear technology or military capabilities, but how to "explain" to the domestic public and the international community in order to continue maintaining the legitimacy of the regime. This political narrative. That is to say, Master Dao believes that if Iran gives up uranium enrichment in the negotiations now, the current president and foreign minister will, at the very least, be placed under house arrest, and at the most, face a life-threatening situation.

接下来我们说一下产地煤炭产能的事情，根据道爷这几天产地的实地调研，自前几天明察暗访组撤离以后，已经有煤矿开始超产，有的煤矿这个月产能完成后停产，现在已经复工满负荷生产。但不是普遍如此，还就是过去那几个超产大户，道爷这个调研可能不准确，切勿较真。 还是那句话，煤矿大部分事故源于超产，但超产永远无法杜绝，也就是说那种煤矿恶性事故会像幽灵一样跟着煤炭开采这个行业。

Now let's talk about the coal production capacity in the source areas. Based on my recent on-site investigations in the source areas, since the undercover investigation team left a few days ago, some coal mines have begun to exceed their production capacity. Some of these mines have stopped production after completing their current month's output and have now resumed full-scale production at full capacity. However, this is not the case everywhere. It's still the same few coal mines that were previously known for excessive production. My investigation might not be entirely accurate, so please don't get too hung up on it. As I always say, most coal mine accidents are caused by excessive production, but excessive production can never be completely eliminated. That is to say, those kind of severe coal mine accidents will haunt the coal mining industry like a ghost.