环渤海市场动力煤价格打破连续半个月的僵持局面，再度迎来上涨。5月25日，“CCTD环渤海动力煤现货参考价”5500K、5000K、4500K三个规格品分别收于838、751、656元/吨，环比均上涨4元/吨。

The price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim market has broken through the stalemate that had persisted for two consecutive months and is once again on the rise. On May 25th, the "CCTD Bohai Rim Spot Reference Price for Thermal Coal" for three specifications - 5500K, 5000K, and 4500K - closed at 838 yuan/ton, 751 yuan/ton, and 656 yuan/ton respectively, with all three rising by 4 yuan/ton compared to the previous period.

5月中旬以来，在产地出货压力加大、港口库存持续积累以及进口煤投标价格下跌影响下，动力煤市场看涨情绪明显降温，价格总体持稳运行。但受5月22日山西留神峪煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故影响，煤炭市场供需基本面存在收紧预期，导致市场情绪快速反转，卖方出货意愿下降，挺价意愿增强。短期来看，在情绪助推下，动力煤价格有望继续上行，上涨高度重点关注以下几个方面。

Since mid-May, due to increased shipment pressure at the production sites, continuous accumulation of inventory at ports, and the decline in bidding prices for imported coal, the bullish sentiment in the thermal coal market has significantly cooled down, and the prices have generally remained stable. However, affected by the gas explosion accident at Liandingyu Coal Mine in Shanxi Province on May 22nd, there is an expectation of tightening in the fundamentals of the coal market supply and demand, which led to a rapid reversal of market sentiment. Sellers' willingness to ship decreased, while their willingness to maintain prices increased. In the short term, driven by market sentiment, the price of thermal coal is expected to continue to rise. The extent of the increase should be closely focused on the following aspects.

一是煤炭供给实际变化情况。受留神峪煤矿事故影响，属地山西沁源县煤矿已全部停产，山西其他区域及部分产煤省份安监也在迅速收紧，部分存在瓦斯隐患的煤矿陆续开始停产自查，煤矿事故已经直接影响到煤炭的供给。另外，由于煤矿事故的影响仍在持续，叠加6月是全国安全生产月，因此中短期看全国煤矿开工率受限，也将导致供给收紧的预期持续存在。

First, the actual changes in coal supply. Due to the accident at Lianyu Coal Mine, all coal mines in the local area of Shanxi Province, Qinyuan County, have been shut down. The safety supervision departments in other regions of Shanxi Province and some coal-producing provinces are also rapidly tightening regulations. Some coal mines with gas hazards have begun to suspend production for self-inspection. The coal mine accident has directly affected the supply of coal. Moreover, due to the ongoing impact of the coal mine accident, coupled with the fact that June is the National Safety Production Month, the short-term coal mine operation rate across the country is restricted, which will also lead to the expectation of supply tightening persisting.

二是进口煤价格变化情况。近期进口煤投标价格稳中有跌，最新一期中国进口动力煤价格采购价格指数3800K华南到岸价收于590元/吨，较前期高点下跌15元/吨。而随着中东冲突降温，原油价格高位回落，后期国际煤价也存在下降的可能。因此，若后期内贸煤价格继续上涨，进口煤的价格优势有望提升。

The second point is the changes in the prices of imported coal. Recently, the bidding prices for imported coal have remained stable but have declined slightly. The latest China Imported Thermal Coal Price Index (3800K, South China FOB price) has dropped to 590 yuan per ton, down 15 yuan per ton from the previous peak. Moreover, as the conflict in the Middle East has eased, the price of crude oil has fallen from its high level, and there is a possibility that international coal prices will also decline in the future. Therefore, if the domestic trade coal prices continue to rise in the latter period, the price advantage of imported coal is expected to increase.

三是终端消费变化情况。受印尼煤进口量下降、国际能源外溢风险、厄尔尼诺天气等因素影响，今年以来市场看涨预期持续存在，是支撑市场淡季不淡、持续上涨的重要原因。但偏强的市场预期也导致终端补库需求前置、流通环节囤煤量上升，若后期终端实际消费不及预期，流通环节将面临较大的出货压力。

Third, changes in terminal consumption. Influenced by factors such as declining Indonesian coal imports, international energy spillover risks, and El Niño weather conditions, market bullish expectations have persisted this year, serving as a key reason for the market's sustained performance despite being traditionally off-season. However, overly strong market expectations have also led to forward demand for terminal stockpiling and increased coal hoarding in the distribution chain. If actual terminal consumption falls short of expectations later, the distribution sector will face significant shipment pressure.

整体来看，供给收缩和继续收缩的预期是影响当前动力煤市场的主要因素，中短期动力煤价格仍有望偏强运行，但也需高度关注煤矿安监实际影响程度、进口煤价格以及终端消费跟进情况，警惕预期不能及时兑现时市场冲高回落的风险。

Overall, the expectation of supply contraction and continued contraction is the main factor influencing the current power coal market. The short-to-medium term power coal prices are still expected to remain relatively strong. However, it is also necessary to pay close attention to the actual impact degree of coal mine safety supervision, the price of imported coal, and the follow-up situation of terminal consumption. We should be vigilant against the risk of market surges followed by declines if the expectations cannot be fulfilled in time.