煤炭是我国能源安全的基石。中国煤炭工业协会近日发布《2025煤炭行业发展年度报告》（以下简称“报告”）预计，2026年煤炭消费将小幅增长，供给保持较高水平，煤炭进口处于高位，加之当前全社会存煤水平较高，预计全年煤炭市场供需将呈现总体平衡态势。同时，仍需关注地缘政治导致的国际能源市场波动以及极端天气等因素引发的煤炭需求波动对区域性、时段性市场产生的影响。

Coal is the cornerstone of China's energy security. The China Coal Industry Association recently released the "Annual Report on the Development of the Coal Industry in 2025" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report"). It is predicted that in 2026, coal consumption will increase slightly, supply will remain at a high level, coal imports will be at a high level, and given the current high level of coal reserves in society, the coal market supply and demand in the whole year are expected to present a generally balanced situation. At the same time, attention still needs to be paid to the impact of international energy market fluctuations caused by geopolitical factors and coal demand fluctuations triggered by extreme weather conditions on regional and time-specific markets.

3月份往往是传统煤炭消费淡季，但今年4月以来，受中东局势影响，国际煤炭价格一度快速上涨，国际四大煤炭指数逆势上涨，最大涨幅达20%。对此，有关部门全力做好煤炭稳产稳供稳价工作，切实发挥好煤炭在能源供应体系中的兜底保障作用。

March is usually the off-season for traditional coal consumption. However, since April this year, due to the situation in the Middle East, international coal prices have risen rapidly. The four major international coal indices also rose against the trend, with the maximum increase reaching 20%. In response to this, relevant departments have been fully committed to ensuring stable production, supply and pricing of coal, and effectively playing the role of coal as the ultimate guarantee in the energy supply system.

今年1月至3月，全国规上工业原煤产量达12亿吨，同比增长0.1%。3月份，秦皇岛港5500大卡动力煤中长期合同价格为682元/吨，较2月上涨2元/吨，稳住了全国电煤供应的基本盘，3月底，环渤海港口5500大卡动力煤现货平仓价753元/吨，较2月末上涨28元/吨，涨幅3.9%，这比国际煤价增幅低10个百分点以上，有力保障了国内能源安全稳定供应。

From January to March this year, the total output of raw coal by large-scale industrial enterprises across the country reached 1.2 billion tons, with a year-on-year growth of 0.1%. In March, the long-term contract price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 682 yuan per ton, rising by 2 yuan per ton compared to February, stabilizing the basic supply of national thermal coal. By the end of March, the spot trading price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at the Bohai Rim ports was 753 yuan per ton, up by 28 yuan per ton from the end of February, with an increase of 3.9%. This was more than 10 percentage points lower than the increase in international coal prices, effectively ensuring the stable supply of domestic energy.

国家能源局综合司副司长张星介绍，4月以来，全国煤炭日均调度产量持续处于1250万吨以上的较高水平，4月23日的数据显示，全国统调电厂存煤达到1.9亿吨，可用32天，处于历史较高水平，国内煤炭市场总体呈现“价格微涨、库存充足、供需平稳”的特征，煤炭兜底保障作用显著。

Zhang Xing, the deputy director of the Comprehensive Department of the National Energy Administration, introduced that since April, the daily dispatch production of coal across the country has remained at a relatively high level of over 12.5 million tons. The data on April 23 showed that the total coal reserves of the national dispatching power plants reached 190 million tons, sufficient for 32 days, which is at a historically high level. The domestic coal market generally presents the characteristics of "slight price increase, sufficient inventory, and stable supply and demand", and the role of coal as a guarantee has been significantly demonstrated.

中国煤炭运销协会理事长刘志江表示，煤炭行业积极应对市场波动，保障国家能源安全，发挥好煤炭的兜底保障作用，依法合规推进煤炭稳产稳供，严格电煤中长期合同履约兑现，切实保障电煤需求。在进口煤价倒挂局面下，煤炭行业积极拓展下游市场，提高内贸煤市场份额，全力保障下游行业用煤需求。

Liu Zhijiang, the president of the China Coal Marketing Association, stated that the coal industry has actively responded to market fluctuations, ensuring national energy security, playing its role as a safety net for energy supply, legally and compliantly promoting stable production and supply of coal, strictly fulfilling the performance of long-term contracts for thermal coal, and effectively guaranteeing the demand for thermal coal. In the situation where the price of imported coal is lower than domestic prices, the coal industry has actively expanded the downstream market, increased the share of domestic coal in the market, and made every effort to ensure the coal demand of downstream industries.

对于2026年煤炭市场走势，报告认为，从需求端看，电力行业耗煤略有增长。据中电联预测，2026年全社会用电量同比将增长5%至6%。新型能源体系加速构建，清洁能源对煤电的替代作用增强，但煤电需要服务于“能源消费超预期增长”和新能源出力不足等情况下的“顶峰调峰”需求，预计电力行业耗煤将略有增长。

Regarding the coal market trend in 2026, the report states that from the demand side, coal consumption in the power industry will increase slightly. According to the prediction of the China Electricity Council, the total electricity consumption of the entire society in 2026 will increase by 5% to 6% year-on-year. The new energy system is accelerating its construction, and the substitution effect of clean energy on coal power is strengthening. However, coal power needs to serve the "peak load regulation" demands under circumstances such as "unexpected growth in energy consumption" and insufficient output of new energy. It is expected that coal consumption in the power industry will increase slightly.

钢铁行业耗煤基本持平或略有下降。《钢铁行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》将2025年至2026年钢铁行业增加值年均增长目标设定在4%左右，对钢铁供给产生积极提振作用；同时，随着钢铁产业结构的持续优化、技术迭代升级、绿色低碳转型步伐加快，吨钢可比能耗逐步下降，考虑钢铁产品需求调整、国际贸易形势变化、钢铁下游产品出口的不确定性，预计钢铁行业耗煤将基本持平或略有下降。

The coal consumption in the steel industry remained basically stable or slightly decreased. The "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Steel Industry (2025-2026)" set the average annual growth target for the steel industry's added value from 2025 to 2026 at around 4%, which has a positive stimulating effect on the steel supply; at the same time, with the continuous optimization of the steel industry's structure, the technological iteration and upgrading, and the accelerated pace of green and low-carbon transformation, the per-ton steel comparable energy consumption has gradually decreased. Considering the adjustment of steel product demand, the changes in international trade situations, and the uncertainty of steel downstream product exports, it is expected that the coal consumption of the steel industry will remain basically stable or slightly decrease.

建材行业耗煤小幅下降。房地产仍处于深度调整期，基建投资增速持续回落，预计水泥需求仍有走弱的压力，水泥产品的高端化发展虽可对煤炭需求形成一定支撑，但难以弥补需求下滑带来的减量，预计建材行业耗煤量将小幅下降。

The coal consumption in the building materials industry has slightly decreased. The real estate sector is still in a period of deep adjustment, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment has continued to decline. It is expected that the demand for cement will still face downward pressure. Although the development of high-end cement products can provide certain support for coal demand, it is difficult to make up for the reduction in demand caused by the decline. Therefore, the coal consumption of the building materials industry is expected to decrease slightly.

煤化工行业耗煤保持增长。国内农业用肥生产需求及其他煤化工下游产品出口需求将继续支撑煤化工生产保持良好积极性，同时考虑到新增产能需求释放，预计化工行业耗煤量将保持稳定增长。

The coal consumption in the coal chemical industry continues to increase. The domestic demand for agricultural fertilizer production and the export demand for other downstream products of the coal chemical industry will continue to support the coal chemical industry to maintain a good production momentum. At the same time, considering the release of new production capacity demand, it is expected that the coal consumption of the chemical industry will maintain a stable growth.

面对煤炭需求变化趋势，中国煤炭工业协会政策研究部主任郭中华表示，在做好电煤保供基础上，煤炭企业将充分发挥兜底保障能源作用，加强弹性生产和供应调节，增强煤炭供应弹性，保障下游行业用煤需求，部分新核准、新核增煤炭产能将陆续释放。新疆、陕西、内蒙古、山西等主要产煤省区煤炭产量有望稳中有增。预计我国煤炭产量或将有所增长。

In response to the changing trend of coal demand, Guo Zhonghua, the director of the Policy Research Department of the China Coal Industry Association, stated that on the basis of ensuring the supply of thermal coal for electricity, coal enterprises will fully play their role in guaranteeing energy supply, strengthen flexible production and supply regulation, enhance the elasticity of coal supply, ensure the coal demand of downstream industries, and some newly approved and newly increased coal production capacity will be released gradually. The coal output in major coal-producing provinces such as Xinjiang, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia and Shanxi is expected to increase steadily. It is predicted that China's coal production may increase.

从煤炭进口看，我国将坚持进口煤的补充调节定位，保持煤炭进口合理规模；考虑印尼、俄罗斯、蒙古国等主要进口煤来源国存在产量、关税等方面的政策调整预期，进口煤价格优势可能减弱，预计我国进口煤量将保持在相对较高水平。

From the perspective of coal imports, China will adhere to the positioning of supplementing and regulating coal imports, maintaining a reasonable scale of coal imports. Considering that major coal-importing countries such as Indonesia, Russia, and Mongolia may have policy adjustments in terms of production and tariffs, the price advantage of imported coal may weaken. It is expected that China's coal import volume will remain at a relatively high level.

“地缘冲突、能源市场波动，进一步凸显了煤炭在我国能源安全中的兜底保障作用。煤炭行业将不断夯实煤炭供应保障基础，以煤炭可靠供应的确定性应对各类不确定性，保障国家能源安全。”刘志江说。

"Geopolitical conflicts and fluctuations in the energy market have further highlighted the crucial role of coal in ensuring energy security in our country. The coal industry will continuously strengthen the foundation for ensuring coal supply, and will use the certainty of reliable coal supply to address various uncertainties, thereby safeguarding national energy security," said Liu Zhijiang.