印度对俄罗斯石油的依赖度创下历史新高
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摘要:印度对俄罗斯石油的依赖度创下历史新高

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海湾地区冲突造成石油供应收紧,印度愈发难以摆脱对俄罗斯的能源依赖,该国自俄罗斯的石油采购量创下历史新高。

The conflict in the Gulf region has led to a tightening of oil supply, making it increasingly difficult for India to break its reliance on Russian energy. The country's oil imports from Russia have reached an all-time high.


贸易咨询机构Kpler首席分析师苏米特?里托利亚表示,6?7月,印度日均进口俄罗斯石油超260万桶,较2月份100万桶/日的低点大幅回升,占印度原油总进口量的一半以上。

Sumit Ritola, the chief analyst of trade consulting firm Kpler, said that in June and July, India's daily import of Russian oil exceeded 2.6 million barrels, a significant rebound from the low point of 1 million barrels per day in February, accounting for more than half of India's total crude oil imports.


Kpler的数据显示,印度原油总进口量达到每日500万桶,创下2月末美以轰炸伊朗以来的最高水平。

Data from Kpler shows that India's total crude oil imports reached 5 million barrels per day, reaching the highest level since the US and Israel bombed Iran at the end of February.


去年,美国总统特朗普指责印度为俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争机器提供资金,此后印度一度削减俄罗斯石油进口。

Last year, US President Trump accused India of providing funds to Russia's war machine in Ukraine. As a result, India temporarily reduced its imports of Russian oil.


但美、伊之间迟迟未能达成和平协议,霍尔木兹海峡石油外运量锐减,这迫使印度再度转向俄罗斯获取石油供应。为对冲海湾危机带来的冲击,特朗普出台豁免政策,允许相关国家采购俄罗斯石油。

However, the United States and Iran failed to reach a peace agreement for a long time. The oil export volume through the Strait of Hormuz sharply decreased, which forced India to turn to Russia again for oil supplies. To counter the impact of the Gulf crisis, Trump introduced an exemption policy, allowing relevant countries to purchase Russian oil.


印度超过90%的原油与天然气需求依赖进口。持续半年的海湾冲突,暴露出这个全球人口大国在能源安全层面的脆弱性。

Over 90% of India's crude oil and natural gas requirements are dependent on imports. The six-month-long conflict in the Gulf has exposed the vulnerability of this populous country in terms of energy security.


印度总理纳伦德拉?莫迪本月在独立日讲话中称,能源安全是“当务之急”,并表示“我们必须全力发展各类替代能源”。

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in his Independence Day speech this month that energy security is a "top priority", and added that "we must make every effort to develop various alternative energy sources".


印度政府智库国家转型委员会(Niti Aayog)的数据显示,化石燃料在该国能源供给中依旧占据关键地位,煤炭占比接近60%,石油占28%,核能占比仅为1.6%。

According to data from the National Transformation Council (Niti Aayog), an Indian government think tank, fossil fuels still hold a crucial position in the country's energy supply. Coal accounts for nearly 60%, oil for 28%, and nuclear energy for only 1.6%.


印度已推出一系列举措推进能源来源多元化,包括向民营主体开放核电领域,同时要求国内炼油厂提高民用燃气产量。但专家表示,能源转型尚需时日。

India has launched a series of measures to diversify its energy sources, including opening up the nuclear power sector to private entities and requiring domestic refineries to increase the production of civilian gas. However, experts say that the energy transition will take time.


新德里智库能源与水资源委员会(CEEW)工业可持续发展团队负责人赫曼特?马利亚称:“这套体系不可能一夜之间完成转变。”

Hemanth Maria, the head of the Industrial Sustainability Team at the New Delhi-based think tank Energy and Resources Institute (CEEW), said: "This system cannot be transformed overnight."


马利亚在6月为该智库参与撰写的一份报告中写道,在煤炭、石油、天然气领域,“印度面临多重叠加风险,包括进口依赖度高、供应来源集中、储备规模有限、基础设施瓶颈,以及直接暴露于全球价格波动之下”。报告补充指出,上述压力“会同时对居民生活、工业生产、政府财政以及通胀水平造成影响”。

In June, Maria wrote in a report co-authored for this think tank that in the fields of coal, oil and natural gas, "India faces multiple overlapping risks, including high import dependence, concentrated supply sources, limited reserves, infrastructure bottlenecks, and direct exposure to global price fluctuations." The report further noted that these pressures "will simultaneously affect residents' lives, industrial production, government finances, and inflation levels."


莫迪在全国讲话中提到“提升能源利用效率”,并表示在其12年执政任期内,通管道天然气的城市数量从70座增至700座,覆盖1750万户家庭。

Modi mentioned "improving energy utilization efficiency" in his national speech and stated that during his 12-year term in office, the number of cities using pipeline natural gas increased from 70 to 700, covering 17.5 million households.


但印度有超过3.3亿户家庭仍将液化石油气钢瓶作为主要炊事燃料,上述管道天然气覆盖规模与之相比仍属杯水车薪。海湾冲突爆发后不久,印度炼油厂将液化石油气日产量从此前约3.6万吨提升至5万吨以上。不过能源、环境与水资源委员会(CEEW)指出,即便是印度本土生产的液化石油气,也仅能满足国内约40%的需求,且“大部分产自进口原油”。

However, more than 330 million households in India still use liquefied petroleum gas cylinders as their main cooking fuel. The coverage of the aforementioned pipeline natural gas is still far from sufficient compared to this. Shortly after the outbreak of the Gulf conflict, Indian refineries increased the daily production of liquefied petroleum gas from approximately 36,000 tons to over 50,000 tons. Nevertheless, the Energy, Environment and Water Resources Committee (CEEW) pointed out that even the domestically produced liquefied petroleum gas can only meet about 40% of the domestic demand, and "most of it is produced from imported crude oil".


作为能源安全长期规划的一部分,印度正加大储备建设力度。印度政府本月向国会议员通报,该国战略石油储备可储存533万吨石油;叠加商业仓储后,原油及石油产品总存储量可相当于74天的进口量。印度也在研究备选方案,考虑将部分储备存放于阿联酋。

As part of the long-term energy security plan, India is increasing its efforts in reserve construction. The Indian government informed members of parliament this month that the country's strategic petroleum reserve can store 5.33 million tons of oil; when combined with commercial storage, the total storage capacity of crude oil and petroleum products can be equivalent to 74 days' worth of imports. India is also studying alternative options and considering storing some of the reserves in the United Arab Emirates.


能源经济与金融分析研究所南亚区主管维布胡蒂?加尔指出:“印度虽建有石油战略储备,但液化石油气(LPG)与液化天然气(LNG)的储备天数严重不足,市场恐慌情绪更多就来源于液化石油气消费端。”

Vibhuti Garg, the South Asia regional director of the Energy Economics and Financial Analysis Institute, pointed out: "Although India has established a strategic oil reserve, the reserve days for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) are seriously insufficient. The market panic sentiment is more likely to stem from the consumption end of LPG."


受战争影响,中东天然气供应中断,和众多亚洲国家一样,印度也重新转向煤炭为城市提供电力。自2015年3月以来的十年间,印度煤炭年产量大涨70%,达到10.4亿吨。

Due to the impact of the war, the supply of natural gas in the Middle East was disrupted. Like many other Asian countries, India also turned back to coal to provide electricity for its cities. Over the past ten years since March 2015, India's annual coal production has soared by 70%, reaching 1.04 billion tons.


里托利亚表示,伊朗冲突“凸显出,印度当下的紧迫挑战,既要彻底摆脱石油依赖,同样也要实现原油供应来源与运输路线的多元化”。

Ritolia stated that the Iran conflict "highlights the urgent challenges facing India at present, which include not only completely breaking away from reliance on oil, but also diversifying the sources and transportation routes of crude oil supply."


他补充称,尽管印度大力推进能源多元化,“但考虑到本国经济与能源需求的增长,即便石油占比会逐步发生变化,它在能源结构中仍将长期占据重要地位”。

He added that although India is vigorously promoting energy diversification, "given the growth of its economy and energy demand, even if the proportion of oil gradually changes, it will still maintain an important position in the energy structure for a long time."


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