8月17日，《石油天然气发展“十五五”规划》（简称《规划》）正式印发。这是继2016年《能源发展“十三五”规划》配套发布油气专项以来，国家再度发布的石油天然气行业专项五年规划。

On August 17th, the "15-16 Oil and Gas Development Plan" (referred to as the "Plan") was officially released. This is another five-year plan for the oil and gas industry issued by the state, following the release of the "13th Five-Year Energy Development Plan" in 2016, which included specific plans for oil and gas.

作为落实“十五五”新型能源体系建设的行业纲领性文件，《规划》如何定调未来五年油气行业发展方向？记者采访多位业内专家，回应社会对于油气领域关心关注的热点问题。

As an industry guideline document for implementing the new energy system construction in the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, how does this "Plan" define the development direction of the oil and gas industry in the next five years? We interviewed several industry experts to address the hot issues that the society is concerned about in the oil and gas sector.

时隔十年再出油气专项规划

A new oil and gas development plan has been released after a ten-year interval.

呈现三大核心转变

Presenting three core transformations

应变于当下，求变于长远。《规划》围绕保障能源安全和绿色低碳发展两大任务，系统部署石油天然气领域七方面重点工作，积极应对国内外形势变化，具有重大战略意义。

Adaptation should be made in the present, and innovation should be pursued in the long term. The "Plan" focuses on two major tasks: ensuring energy security and promoting green and low-carbon development. It systematically arranges seven key tasks in the oil and gas sector, and actively responds to changes in domestic and international situations. This plan holds significant strategic importance.

专家分析，本次重新单独编制油气规划，相较此前同类政策，呈现三大核心转变。

Experts have analyzed that this new separate formulation of the oil and gas planning differs from previous similar policies and presents three core changes.

油气发展主线由单一聚焦能源安全，转向能源安全与绿色低碳双轮驱动。北京世创能源咨询有限公司首席研究员杨建红认为，《规划》锚定保障能源安全和绿色低碳发展两大任务，既是适配“双碳”目标做出的重大调整，又体现统筹发展和安全、统筹国内国际两个大局的战略考量。

The main direction of oil and gas development has shifted from focusing solely on energy security to a dual-drive approach combining energy security and green low-carbon development. Yang Jianhong, the chief researcher of Beijing Shichuang Energy Consulting Co., Ltd., believes that the "Plan" has set two major tasks of ensuring energy security and promoting green low-carbon development. This is not only a significant adjustment made to align with the "carbon neutrality" goal, but also reflects strategic considerations of coordinating development and security, as well as integrating domestic and international situations.

油气的独立性、战略性显著提升。多名专家表示，新型能源体系高度依赖油气提供稳定支撑、平抑新能源波动，其战略保障价值将更加突出。本次油气专项规划的单独出台，本身就是强有力的政策信号。

The independence and strategic significance of oil and gas have significantly increased. Many experts have stated that the new energy system is highly dependent on oil and gas for stable support and to stabilize the fluctuations of new energy sources. Its strategic guarantee value will become even more prominent. The separate release of this oil and gas special plan is itself a powerful policy signal.

油气发展逻辑从“重规模扩张”转向“保量提质”。《规划》明确，到2030年国内油气供应量目标由目前的4.2亿吨油当量提升至4.4亿吨，增加2000万吨。而“十四五”期间增量为6000万吨。

The development logic of the oil and gas industry has shifted from "heavy focus on scale expansion" to "ensuring quantity and improving quality". The "Plan" clearly states that by 2030, the domestic oil and gas supply target will be increased from the current 420 million tons of oil equivalent to 440 million tons, an increase of 20 million tons. And during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the increase will be 60 million tons.

中国石油勘探开发研究院相关专家认为，结合《规划》全文看，国家对油气发展的质量要求更高。一是更加关注储量质量，由单纯追求地质储量向追求可采储量转变。二是更加关注产量结构，“十五五”时期原油从“规模上产”转为“效益稳产”，预计增量中天然气资源占比较大，应重点围绕非常规天然气等领域加强攻关。

Experts from the China National Petroleum Exploration and Development Research Institute believe that, when considering the entire content of the "Plan", the country has set higher quality requirements for the development of oil and gas. Firstly, it pays more attention to the quality of reserves, shifting from merely pursuing geological reserves to striving for recoverable reserves. Secondly, it pays more attention to the production structure. During the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, crude oil production shifted from "scale production" to "stable and efficient production", and it is expected that natural gas resources will account for a larger proportion of the increase. Therefore, efforts should be focused on key areas such as unconventional natural gas for research and development.

外部不确定性增加

Increased external uncertainties

增强能源体系韧性是重点

Enhancing the resilience of the energy system is the key point.

多位专家表示，我国能源安全的核心关键始终是油气，重中之重在原油。

Many experts have stated that the core and key aspect of China's energy security has always been oil and gas, with crude oil being the top priority.

目前，我国整体能源自给率约为84%。今年霍尔木兹海峡地缘冲突期间，国内油气、石化供应并没有出现大面积紧张，成品油出口秩序很快恢复，充分印证我国能源体系韧性强。

At present, the overall energy self-sufficiency rate of our country is approximately 84%. During the geopolitical conflict in the Strait of Hormuz this year, there was no significant shortage of domestic oil and petrochemical supplies. The order of refined oil exports was quickly restored, fully demonstrating the strong resilience of our energy system.

“构建坚强韧性的能源安全保障体系”是新型能源体系建设“六大体系”战略任务之首。围绕这一目标，《规划》提出一系列新举措。

"Establishing a robust and resilient energy security guarantee system" is the top strategic task among the "six systems" for the construction of new energy. In line with this goal, the "Plan" has proposed a series of new measures.

——看上游，设立一批油气战略保障基地，持续推进油气增储上产，夯实国内油气自主供给“压舱石”。《规划》部署向深、向非、向海寻找接替资源，同时提出在鄂尔多斯、渤海湾等地设立油气战略保障基地，以重点区域支撑完成国内油气产量目标任务。

— Looking upstream, a number of strategic oil and gas reserve and production enhancement bases will be established. We will continue to increase oil and gas reserves and production, and lay a solid foundation for the "ballast stone" of domestic oil and gas self-supply. The plan calls for seeking alternative resources in deeper areas, in unconventional sources, and at sea. At the same time, strategic oil and gas reserve bases will be established in regions such as Ordos and Bohai Bay to support the achievement of domestic oil and gas production targets in key areas.

中国石油勘探开发研究院相关专家认为，设立油气保障基地，一方面是对标对表国家区域发展战略，另一方面有利于集中力量办大事，实现各类保障要素的精准配置。《规划》划定的战略基地内油气产量占全国的90%以上，具有资源潜力大、基础设施完善等优势。这些战略基地已形成完整接替梯队，既有稳产老基地，又有深层、非常规、新区增长点。

Experts from the China National Petroleum Exploration and Development Research Institute believe that establishing oil and gas security bases is not only in line with the national regional development strategy, but also conducive to concentrating resources to achieve major undertakings and achieving precise allocation of various security factors. The strategic bases delineated in the "Plan" account for over 90% of the country's oil and gas production, and have advantages such as large resource potential and complete infrastructure. These strategic bases have formed a complete succession梯队， including both stable production old bases and deep， unconventional， and new area growth points.

——看中游，保留国内适度炼化能力，在国际油价起伏时保障用油安全。《规划》新增“保持适度富余炼油和石化产能”这一表述，但并未提出量化压降要求。

-- Focus on the midstream sector, retain moderate refining and petrochemical production capacity within the country, and ensure oil supply security during fluctuations in international oil prices. The "Maintaining moderate excess refining and petrochemical production capacity" statement has been added in the "Plan", but no quantitative reduction requirements have been proposed.

中国石油经济技术研究院首席经济学家戴家权分析，此举说明不能把富余炼油能力视作负担。一旦海外供应链受阻，炼厂可以灵活调整，优先保障国内成品油供应，从而提升产业链的韧性。

Dai Jiaquan, the chief economist of the China Petroleum and Natural Gas Economic Research Institute, analyzed that this move indicates that the excess refining capacity should not be regarded as a burden. In case of disruptions in overseas supply chains, refineries can make flexible adjustments and prioritize the supply of domestic refined oil products, thereby enhancing the resilience of the industrial chain.

——看下游，推动成品油消费达峰，降低终端用能对油气的依赖度。

— Looking at the downstream sector, we aim to peak the consumption of refined oil products and reduce the dependence of end-users on oil and gas.

“本次《规划》和以往专项5年规划最大的不同，就是明确提出推动石油消费达峰。”杨建红认为，这为“十五五”时期石油产业指明了整体方向，即立足保安全、保关键领域供给，主动适应石油消费达峰趋势，而非被动调整。

The biggest difference between this "Plan" and previous five-year special plans is that it explicitly states the goal of promoting the peak of oil consumption. Yang Jianhong believes that this has pointed out the overall direction for the oil industry during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, which is to focus on ensuring security and ensuring supply in key areas, actively adapting to the trend of oil consumption reaching its peak, rather than making passive adjustments.

另外，储备体系建设发生重大变化。中国石油规划总院天然气所所长李广分析，“十四五”时期重点关注天然气储备规模，解决“有没有”的问题。2025年，天然气储备能力占消费比重超过12%。《规划》提出2030年天然气储备占消费比重超过13%，占比小幅提升。他表示：“随着国内天然气储量的提升，新阶段的储备工作更看重存量储气库挖潜和尖峰保供能力提升，同时提出探索开展储氢、二氧化碳等新业态。”

Furthermore, there have been significant changes in the construction of the reserve system. Li Guang, the director of the Natural Gas Department of China Petroleum Planning and Design Institute, analyzed that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the focus will be on the scale of natural gas reserves to address the issue of "whether there are enough reserves". By 2025, the proportion of natural gas reserves in consumption will exceed 12%. The "Plan" proposes that by 2030, the proportion of natural gas reserves in consumption will exceed 13%, with a slight increase. He said: "With the increase in domestic natural gas reserves, the reserve work in the new stage places greater emphasis on the potential expansion of existing storage facilities and the improvement of peak-load supply capacity. At the same time, it proposes to explore and carry out new business models such as hydrogen storage and carbon dioxide storage."

锚定“双碳”目标

Anchor the "carbon neutrality" goal

三对关系引领多能融合发展

Three pairs of relationships lead to the integration and development of multiple capabilities.

绿色转型是《规划》十分突出的新增内容。过去油气专项政策更多立足于保供，《规划》明确布局油气与新能源协同、CCUS融合发展，形成多元支撑格局。

The green transformation is a particularly prominent new element in the "Plan". In the past, the special policies for the oil and gas sector were more focused on ensuring supply. The "Plan" has clearly laid out the coordinated development of oil and gas with new energy and the integration of CCUS, forming a diversified support framework.

专家分析，多能融合发展应平衡三方面关系。

Experts point out that the multi-functional integration and development should balance three aspects of relationships.

立与破的关系。戴家权提醒，《规划》清晰体现一条主线：能源安全优先级高于绿色低碳转型。他说：“国家顶层规划定调‘在确保安全前提下积极稳妥推进碳达峰’，相关定语非常关键。油气行业的首要任务是加大勘探开发和增储上产力度，在此基础上，推动油气与多能融合发展。”

The relationship between establishment and dismantling. Dai Jiaquan pointed out that the "Plan" clearly presents a main thread: energy security takes precedence over the green and low-carbon transformation. He said: "The top-level national planning sets the tone of 'actively and steadily promoting carbon peak while ensuring security'. The relevant modifiers are very crucial. The primary task of the oil and gas industry is to increase exploration and development efforts and increase reserves and production. On this basis, promote the integrated development of oil and gas with multiple energy sources."

量与效的关系。“十三五”时期，国家明确设置天然气占一次能源消费比例指标。“十四五”开始逐步弱化天然气消费量的硬性目标。“十五五”延续这一思路，没有设置硬性天然气消费量目标。

The relationship between quantity and effect. During the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, the country clearly set an indicator for the proportion of natural gas in primary energy consumption. Starting from the "14th Five-Year Plan", the hard targets for natural gas consumption were gradually weakened. The "15th Five-Year Plan" continued this approach, without setting a hard target for natural gas consumption.

李广分析，此举意在构建更具弹性与韧性的天然气市场体系。充分发挥市场在资源配置中的决定性作用，价高、量紧时，自主调节用气；价低、量多时，适度提升用气效率。资源供应、储运体系能够协同适配，提升产业链的调节能力，实现供需动态平衡。

Li Guang analyzed that this move aims to establish a more flexible and resilient natural gas market system. It fully leverages the decisive role of the market in resource allocation. When prices are high and supply is tight, the use of gas can be adjusted autonomously; when prices are low and supply is abundant, the efficiency of gas usage can be moderately enhanced. The resource supply and storage transportation systems can work together to adapt and improve, enhancing the regulatory capacity of the industrial chain and achieving dynamic balance between supply and demand.

降与增的关系。《规划》明确，到2030年，CCS/CCUS年注入二氧化碳达1000万吨，这是CCS/CCUS首次作为量化目标写入国家级政策文件。对油气行业来说，这意味着CCUS不仅是生产端降碳减排的手段，也有望成为产业链延伸升级、培育新的增长曲线的机遇。

The relationship between reduction and increase. The "Plan" clearly states that by 2030, the annual injection of carbon dioxide through CCS/CCUS will reach 10 million tons. This is the first time that CCS/CCUS has been written as a quantitative target in a national policy document. For the oil and gas industry, this means that CCUS is not only a means for carbon reduction and emission reduction at the production end, but also has the potential to become an opportunity for extending and upgrading the industrial chain and cultivating new growth curves.

“CCUS是碳达峰阶段重要减排手段。到碳中和阶段，它会成为不可或缺的兜底技术。美国在调整了对新能源政策后，依旧持续布局CCUS。中美在该技术方向上存在共识。”戴家权认为，随着炼油、乙烯装置即将纳入碳市场，碳市场机制也将推动CCUS产业链成本下行。

"CCUS is an important emission reduction method during the carbon peak stage. By the time of carbon neutrality, it will become an indispensable backup technology. After adjusting its policies towards new energy, the United States still continues to invest in CCUS. China and the United States share a consensus on this technology direction." Dai Jiaquan believes that as refining and ethylene plants are about to be included in the carbon market, the carbon market mechanism will also drive the cost of the CCUS industry chain to decline.

首次独立成章

First published as a separate article

科技创新成为增储上产核心引擎

Scientific and technological innovation has become the core driving force for increasing reserves and enhancing production.

相较于以往的石油天然气规划，新发布的《规划》将强化科技创新驱动单独部署为一部分。专家分析，《规划》对数智化发展的部署路径更加翔实，针对不同领域设置专栏，提出的目标更加具体，意味着科技创新在能源领域的重要性愈发凸显。

Compared with previous oil and gas planning, the newly released "Plan" has specifically designated strengthening technological innovation-driven development as a separate part. Experts analyzed that the deployment path of the "Plan" for digital and intelligent development is more detailed, with special sections set up for different fields and more specific goals proposed, indicating that the importance of technological innovation in the energy sector is becoming increasingly prominent.

《规划》明确了未来科技创新的主攻方向——加快突破关键技术瓶颈，提升数智化赋能成效，提高标准规范管理水平。明确聚焦陆上深层、海洋深水、非常规油气、老油田提高采收率等领域，开展技术攻坚。

The "Plan" has clearly defined the main directions for future scientific and technological innovation - to accelerate breakthroughs in key technical bottlenecks, enhance the effectiveness of digital and intelligent empowerment, and improve the management level of standards and norms. It also clearly focuses on areas such as deep onshore, deep-sea, unconventional oil and gas, and improving recovery rates in old oil fields, and conducts technological breakthroughs.

从资源类型和开发场景看，随着中浅层油气资源逐步开发，陆上深层、海洋深水、非常规、老油气田和油气伴生资源等五大领域已成为我国未来油气增储上产的重要攻关方向。

From the perspective of resource types and development scenarios, as the exploration and development of shallow and medium-depth oil and gas resources progresses, the five major fields - onshore deep layers, offshore deep waters, unconventional resources, old oil and gas fields, and oil and gas associated resources - have become the key research directions for increasing oil and gas reserves and enhancing production in China's future.

“当前我国深层、超深层油气探明程度仍然较低，深水油气工程技术装备自主设计制造能力有很大提升空间，老油田持续稳产难度大。”勘探领域专家分析，这些领域亟待科技创新突破，对于伴生资源领域，应统筹开展油气与钾、锂、硫等伴生资源一体化勘探开发技术研发，持续提升资源综合利用效率。

"At present, the exploration level of deep and ultra-deep oil and gas resources in China is still relatively low. There is much room for improvement in the independent design and manufacturing capabilities of deepwater oil and gas engineering technologies and equipment. The continuous stable production of old oil fields is also very challenging." Experts in the exploration field analyzed that these areas urgently need breakthroughs in scientific and technological innovation. For the associated resource fields, integrated exploration and development technologies for oil and gas along with associated resources such as potassium, lithium, and sulfur should be carried out in a coordinated manner to continuously enhance the efficiency of resource comprehensive utilization.

在基础设施环节，杨建红认为，应重点关注大规模掺氢/改输氢、甲醇和液氨等多元介质输送等技术攻关。他说：“天然气行业要持续发展，掺氢是有效的途径。必须依托现有管网基础设施承接新能源，走可持续发展之路。”

In the infrastructure aspect, Yang Jianhong believes that efforts should be focused on key technological breakthroughs such as large-scale hydrogen blending/transmission, and the transportation of multiple media including methanol and liquid ammonia. He said, "For the continuous development of the natural gas industry, hydrogen blending is an effective approach. We must rely on the existing pipeline infrastructure to accommodate new energy sources and follow a sustainable development path."

《规划》设立专栏专门部署“人工智能+”油气产业建设，提出人工智能在油气行业实现规模化、体系化应用，基本建成深度融合、全面赋能的“人工智能+”油气产业生态。

The "Plan" has set up a special section to specifically address the construction of the "artificial intelligence +" oil and gas industry. It proposes that artificial intelligence be applied on a large scale and in a systematic manner in the oil and gas sector, and that a "deep integration and comprehensive empowerment" "artificial intelligence +" oil and gas industry ecosystem be basically established.

对此，销售领域的专家分析，人工智能的核心是“赋能”，技术和创新是为了更好服务于人、赋能生产经营。当前最迫切的需求不是概念和样板，而是让人工智能真正落地到具体应用场景，提升服务能力、市场能力和效率。

In response to this, experts in the sales field analyzed that the core of artificial intelligence is "empowerment". Technology and innovation are aimed at better serving people and empowering production and operation. The most urgent need at present is not concepts or templates, but to enable artificial intelligence to truly be implemented in specific application scenarios, to enhance service capabilities, market capabilities and efficiency.

国计民生重点领域

Key areas of national economy and people's livelihood

深化改革促进行业高质量发展

Deepening reforms to promote high-quality development of the industry

多位专家表示，《规划》聚焦油气体制机制改革，持续完善“X+1+X”油气市场体系，从矿业权改革、管网运营、市场机制、行业治理等多维度打出改革“组合拳”，进一步破除体制障碍，充分释放油气市场主体活力。

Many experts stated that the "Plan" focuses on the reform of the oil and gas system, continuously improving the "X + 1 + X" oil and gas market system. It has launched a series of reform "punches" from multiple dimensions such as mining rights reform, pipeline operation, market mechanism, and industry governance, further eliminating institutional obstacles and fully unleashing the vitality of oil and gas market entities.

《规划》明确提出，深化油气勘探开发体制机制改革，健全勘探开发技术、采收率标准规范及管理机制。这样的体制机制改革，为油气发展奠定了坚实的制度基础。

The "Plan" clearly states that it is necessary to deepen the reform of the mechanisms and systems for oil and gas exploration and development, and to improve the technical standards, recovery rate norms and management mechanisms for exploration and development. Such institutional reforms have laid a solid institutional foundation for the development of oil and gas.

勘探领域专家认为，《规划》中提出的油气战略保障基地，共同承载着能源安全、技术策源与稳产增产等多重使命。通过精准聚焦关键区域，针对油气战略保障基地配套矿权、财税等相关支持政策，并在用地用海、环评等方面给予保障，确保相关政策用在“刀刃上”。

Experts in the exploration field believe that the oil and gas strategic guarantee bases proposed in the "Plan" collectively undertake multiple missions such as energy security, technological innovation, and stable production and increase. By precisely focusing on key areas, providing supporting policies such as mineral rights, fiscal and taxation, and related support measures for the oil and gas strategic guarantee bases, and ensuring that the policies are implemented in the "right places", the policies will be guaranteed to be effectively utilized.

不断完善的油气市场机制，也将为行业注入内生动力。

The continuous improvement of the oil and gas market mechanism will also inject internal impetus into the industry.

清华大学中国现代国有企业研究院研究主任周丽莎认为，一方面，市场化改革本身就是提升保供能力的重要手段，多元主体参与可以提升供应链的灵活性与韧性。另一方面，要在市场化过程中守住安全底线，建立极端情况下的应急调度与保供机制，保留必要的宏观调控手段。

Zhou Lisha, the research director of the China Modern State-Owned Enterprises Research Institute at Tsinghua University, believes that on the one hand, market-oriented reforms are themselves an important means to enhance supply security capabilities. The participation of multiple entities can enhance the flexibility and resilience of the supply chain. On the other hand, in the process of marketization, the safety bottom line must be adhered to. Emergency dispatch and supply guarantee mechanisms in extreme situations should be established, and necessary macro-control measures should be retained.

《规划》将“提升油气行业治理水平”列为专章内容进行系统部署。对此，中国石油大学（北京）能源经济与金融研究所所长郭海涛认为：“这是推动油气行业实现高质量发展的重要制度保障。强化政府监管的效能，有助于为全国统一能源大市场的建设提供有力支撑，营造公平、透明、规范的市场环境。”

The "Plan" has listed "Improving the governance level of the oil and gas industry" as a dedicated chapter for systematic deployment. Regarding this, Guo Haitao, the director of the Energy Economics and Finance Research Institute at China University of Petroleum (Beijing), believes: "This is an important institutional guarantee for promoting the high-quality development of the oil and gas industry. Strengthening the effectiveness of government supervision will help provide strong support for the construction of a unified national energy market and create a fair, transparent and standardized market environment."

面向更加开放的市场格局，郭海涛进一步建议，油气企业应着力推进数字化赋能，加快炼化业务的转型升级步伐，并积极参与行业技术标准与规范体系的建设。在做优做强自身核心竞争力的同时，主动发挥引领作用，带动全链条协同发展，共同提升行业整体竞争力与可持续发展能力。

In response to the increasingly open market landscape, Guo Haitao further suggested that oil and gas enterprises should focus on promoting digital empowerment, accelerate the transformation and upgrading of their refining and chemical businesses, and actively participate in the construction of industry technical standards and regulatory systems. While optimizing and strengthening their core competitiveness, they should proactively assume a leading role, drive the coordinated development of the entire chain, and jointly enhance the overall competitiveness and sustainable development capabilities of the industry.