国际能源署（IEA）近日发布最新月度石油市场报告显示，6月和7月初，对中东局势缓和的预期曾引发油价大幅下跌，但伊朗与美国停火谈判破裂后，海湾地区石油供应的恢复进程出现逆转，7月份，纽约商品交易所西得克萨斯中质原油（WTI）期货价格和北海布伦特基准原油价格迅速飙升至两个月来的高点，波动幅度接近40美元/桶。7月23日，布伦特原油交易价格一度飙升至105美元/桶。北海布伦特即期价格7月上涨25.67美元/桶，月底收于96.80美元/桶。与此同时，8月份，成品油裂解价差和炼油利润率继续上升，在多个地区创下纪录。

The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently released its latest monthly oil market report, stating that in June and early July, expectations of a relaxation in the situation in the Middle East led to a significant drop in oil prices. However, after the ceasefire negotiations between Iran and the United States broke down, the process of restoring oil supply in the Gulf region reversed. In July, the futures price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange and the benchmark Brent crude oil price in the North Sea rose rapidly to their highest levels in two months, with a fluctuation of nearly 40 dollars per barrel. On July 23rd, the Brent crude oil trading price soared to 105 dollars per barrel. The spot price of Brent crude oil in the North Sea rose by 25.67 dollars per barrel in July and closed at 96.80 dollars per barrel. At the same time, in August, the crack spread of refined oil products and the refining profit margin continued to rise, setting records in several regions.

由于霍尔木兹海峡持续关闭扰乱国际供应链并限制成品油供应，报告对2026年下半年的全球石油需求的预测较上月下调了约55万桶/日。报告预计，高企的燃料价格将进一步抑制石油消费，2026年全球石油需求将下降160万桶/日。石油需求在今年二季度减少了490万桶/日，预计三季度还将下降280万桶/日，在四季度转为增长，预计增幅约为58万桶/日。2027年全球石油需求预计将增长240万桶/日。

Due to the continuous closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupting international supply chains and restricting the supply of refined oil products, the report has lowered its forecast for global oil demand in the second half of 2026 by approximately 550,000 barrels per day compared to last month. The report predicts that high fuel prices will further curb oil consumption, and global oil demand will decline by 1.6 million barrels per day in 2026. Oil demand decreased by 4.9 million barrels per day in the second quarter of this year, and is expected to decline by 2.8 million barrels per day in the third quarter. It is expected to turn to growth in the fourth quarter, with an increase of approximately 580,000 barrels per day. Global oil demand is expected to increase by 2.4 million barrels per day in 2027.

报告显示，7月份，全球石油供应增加了240万桶/日，达到1.015亿桶/日，但仍比去年同期水平减少630万桶/日，其中海湾地区仍有830万桶/日的产能处于停产状态。继6月份海湾地区石油产量增加370万桶/日后，7月份该地区石油产量进一步增加了250万桶/日，达到2390万桶/日，但仍比战前水平低830万桶/日。随着霍尔木兹海峡再度关闭，石油基础设施和油轮再次遭袭，海湾地区石油出口再度大幅下滑，该地区产油国恢复原油供应的努力严重受挫。海湾地区出口石油装载量曾在7月初达到2000万桶/日的水平，但在7月末迅速降至约1200万桶/日。

The report indicates that in July, global oil supply increased by 2.4 million barrels per day to 101.5 million barrels per day, but it still remained 6.3 million barrels per day lower than the level of the same period last year. Among them, there were still 8.3 million barrels per day of production capacity in the Gulf region that was out of operation. Following the increase of 3.7 million barrels per day in oil production in the Gulf region in June, the region's oil production further increased by 2.5 million barrels per day to 23.9 million barrels per day in July, but it was still 8.3 million barrels per day lower than the pre-war level. With the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the repeated attacks on oil infrastructure and oil tankers, the oil exports from the Gulf region have once again significantly declined. The efforts of the oil-producing countries in the Gulf region to restore crude oil supply have been severely hindered. The loading volume of oil exported from the Gulf region reached 20 million barrels per day in early July, but it rapidly dropped to approximately 12 million barrels per day by the end of July.

报告指出，由于重新开放霍尔木兹海峡以及保障曼德海峡畅通无阻的协议仍遥不可及，且美洲地区产油国的产量增长不足以弥补中东地区和俄罗斯的产量损失，预计2026年全球石油供应将平均下降430万桶/日，至1.02亿桶/日；2027年石油供应有望增长830万桶/日，达到1.103亿桶/日。

The report indicates that due to the fact that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the agreement to ensure the unobstructed passage of the Strait of Mandeb remain out of reach, and the production growth of oil-producing countries in the Americas is insufficient to make up for the production losses in the Middle East and Russia, it is expected that the global oil supply will decrease by an average of 4.3 million barrels per day to 102 million barrels per day in 2026; the oil supply is expected to increase by 8.3 million barrels per day in 2027, reaching 110.3 million barrels per day.

尽管7月份全球炼油厂原油加工量增加了180万桶/日，达到8090万桶/日，但总产量仍比去年同期低近500万桶/日，成品油供应瓶颈短期内难以突破。海运成品油贸易同比下降380万桶/日，来自俄罗斯、中东和亚洲的柴油出口同比下降130万桶/日，约占全球海上贸易的20%，这些地区的航空煤油出口同比下降约67万桶/日，占全球贸易的34%。

Although global refinery crude oil processing capacity increased by 1.8 million barrels per day in July, reaching 80.9 million barrels per day, the total output was still nearly 5 million barrels per day lower than that of the same period last year. The supply bottleneck of refined oil products is difficult to be broken through in the short term. The volume of maritime refined oil trade decreased by 3.8 million barrels per day compared to the same period last year. The exports of diesel from Russia, the Middle East and Asia decreased by 1.3 million barrels per day, accounting for approximately 20% of the global maritime trade. The exports of aviation kerosene from these regions decreased by about 670,000 barrels per day, accounting for approximately 34% of the global trade.

报告指出，7月份国际成品油市场趋紧，在季节性需求上升、供应短缺和库存枯竭等因素共同作用下，柴油、航空煤油和汽油裂解价差飙升，推动大西洋盆地炼油利润率升至历史新高。由于海湾地区成品油出口中断持续，以及俄罗斯炼油厂遭袭，报告预计，今年三季度的原油加工量将进一步减少37万桶/日，2026年全球炼油厂原油加工量将平均下降250万桶/日，2027年有望增长350万桶/日。

The report indicates that in July, the international refined oil market became tight. Under the combined influence of seasonal demand increase, supply shortage and depletion of inventories, the crack spreads of diesel, aviation kerosene and gasoline soared, pushing the refining profit margins in the Atlantic Basin to an all-time high. Due to the continuous disruption of refined oil exports from the Gulf region and the attack on Russian refineries, the report predicts that the crude oil processing volume in the third quarter of this year will further decrease by 370,000 barrels per day, the global refining plant crude oil processing volume will decrease by an average of 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026, and is expected to increase by 3.5 million barrels per day in 2027.

报告显示，尽管国际能源署放缓了释放石油库存紧急储备的步伐，但在经历了6月份的短暂喘息之后，7月份全球石油库存大幅骤降6900万桶，平均每日减少220万桶。虽然陆上石油库存仅小幅下降了600万桶，但海湾地区和里海地区的石油出口再度中断，导致海上油轮的储油量大幅减少。截至7月底，全球石油库存自2025年4月以来首次降至79亿桶以下。2月底至7月底的累计石油库存释放量达到4.1亿桶，平均270万桶/日。目前可用石油库存正迅速消耗，重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的紧迫性持续加剧。

The report indicates that although the International Energy Agency has slowed down the pace of releasing emergency oil reserves, after a brief respite in June, global oil inventories dropped sharply by 69 million barrels in July, with an average daily reduction of 2.2 million barrels. Although onshore oil inventories only decreased by 6 million barrels, oil exports from the Gulf region and the Caspian Sea region were once again disrupted, leading to a significant reduction in the storage capacity of oil tankers at sea. By the end of July, global oil inventories fell below 7.9 billion barrels for the first time since April 2025. The cumulative release of oil inventories from February to July reached 410 million barrels, averaging 2.7 million barrels per day. The available oil inventories are being rapidly depleted, and the urgency of reopening the Strait of Hormuz continues to increase.