据中新经纬，国内成品油新一轮调价窗口将于8月14日24时开启。综合机构观点，成品油价将迎来年内第五次下调。

According to China Economic Net, the new round of domestic oil price adjustment will commence at 24:00 on August 14th. Based on the opinions of various institutions, the domestic oil prices will undergo their fifth downward adjustment this year.

卓创资讯成品油分析师于雅欣对中新经纬表示，受前期中东地缘局势短暂缓和影响，国际原油价格震荡走低，本轮计价周期对应的国内原油变化率负值开局后持续加深。

Zhuochuang Information's oil analyst Yu Yaxin told China Economic Net, "Due to the temporary easing of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East earlier, international crude oil prices fluctuated and declined. In this current pricing cycle, the domestic crude oil change rate started with a negative value and continued to deepen."

自周期第四个工作日起，中东地缘局势再度收紧，霍尔木兹海峡航运通道依旧未能正常通行，带动国际原油价格持续上涨，成品油零售限价下调空间随之收窄。总体来看，国内参考的原油变化率持续在负值区间，呈现先拉宽后收窄走势。

Starting from the fourth working day of the cycle, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has once again tightened. The shipping channel of the Strait of Hormuz remains unable to operate normally, which has driven the international crude oil prices to continue rising. The space for lowering the retail price of refined oil products has subsequently narrowed. Overall, the change rate of the crude oil used as the reference in China has remained in the negative range, showing a trend of widening first and then narrowing.

隆众资讯成品油分析师刘炳娟介绍，截至8月12日，周期内参考原油均价为82.14美元/桶，较上一周期下调4.90%，预计调价窗口开启时，对应成品油下调理论幅度在210元/吨附近，折合升价大约0.15元，以70升的油箱来计算，私家车主加满一箱油将少花约11元。刘炳娟提到，本轮调价下调已成定局，但最终调价幅度还需以官方公布为准。

Liu Bingjuan, an analyst at Longzhong Information for oil products, said that as of August 12th, the average price of reference crude oil during the period was 82.14 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 4.90% compared to the previous cycle. It is expected that when the adjustment window opens, the theoretical reduction in oil prices for refined products will be around 210 yuan per ton, which is approximately 0.15 yuan per liter. Calculated based on a 70-liter fuel tank, private car owners will save about 11 yuan when filling up their tanks. Liu Bingjuan mentioned that this round of price adjustment has been confirmed, but the final adjustment amount still needs to be confirmed by the official announcement.

中新经纬注意到，今年以来，国内油价已经历十五轮调价，总体格局为“十涨四跌一搁浅”。其中，为减缓国际油价上涨带来的冲击，国家连续两轮对成品油价格采取调控措施。若本轮调价如预期下调，2026年的调价格局将变为“十涨五跌一搁浅”。

China News Service has noted that since the beginning of this year, domestic oil prices have undergone fifteen rounds of adjustments. The overall pattern has been "ten rises, four falls, and one suspension". Among them, to mitigate the impact of rising international oil prices, the country has implemented two consecutive rounds of regulatory measures on refined oil prices. If this round of price adjustment is as expected and leads to a decrease, the price pattern for 2026 will become "ten rises, five falls, and one suspension".

根据“十个工作日”原则，下一轮成品油零售调价窗口将在2026年8月28日24时开启。

According to the "ten-working-day" principle, the next round of refined oil retail price adjustment will commence at 24:00 on August 28, 2026.

展望后市，刘炳娟表示，供应端来看，霍尔木兹海峡通航仍未恢复，胡塞武装对沙特的海上封锁也在继续，供应压力延续。中东原油的供应问题尚未得到彻底解决，全球原油仍是供小于求的局面。

Looking ahead, Liu Bingjuan stated that from the supply side perspective, the navigation of the Hormuz Strait has not yet resumed, and the maritime blockade by the Houthi forces against Saudi Arabia is still ongoing, resulting in continued supply pressure. The supply issue of crude oil in the Middle East has not been completely resolved, and the global crude oil market remains in a situation of supply falling short of demand.

从需求端来看，近期国际能源署下调全球原油需求增速预测，亚洲多国炼厂开工负荷维持低位，唯一亮点是美国传统燃油旺季继续，季节性利好释放支撑局部需求，但整体来看需求端仍改善缓慢。

From the demand side perspective, the International Energy Agency recently lowered its forecast for the growth rate of global crude oil demand. The operating load of refineries in many Asian countries remains at a low level. The only bright spot is that the traditional fuel season in the United States continues, and the seasonal benefits have supported local demand. However, overall, the improvement in the demand side remains slow.

金联创成品油分析师胡雪认为，市场越来越怀疑美伊能否就放宽霍尔木兹海峡的船舶通行限制达成协议，短时间内两国的关系或进入僵持阶段。若无新消息面出台，下周国际油价或以震荡为主。

Hu Xue, an analyst at Jinlianchuang for refined oil products, believes that the market is increasingly skeptical about whether the US and Iran can reach an agreement on easing the restrictions on ship passage in the Strait of Hormuz. In the short term, the relationship between the two countries may enter a stalemate phase. Without any new news coming out, international oil prices are likely to remain volatile next week.