周二油价剧烈震荡，先是承接周一大涨之势，周二亚洲时段在多国炼油设施遭打击消息下，油价继续冲高3%，但欧洲时段又尽数回吐涨幅，并创出日内新低，夜盘又震荡走高。剧烈的波动背后是投资者对当前油价走势的犹豫不定。这也意味着当前原油市场面临的局面是复杂的。

On Tuesday, oil prices experienced a sharp fluctuation. Initially, they continued the upward trend from Monday. During the Asian trading session, following news of damage to oil refining facilities in several countries, oil prices continued to rise by 3%. However, during the European trading session, all the gains were erased and they reached a new intraday low. In the overnight trading session, they rebounded with fluctuations. The intense volatility was due to investors' uncertainty about the current oil price trend. This also indicates that the current situation in the crude oil market is complex.

下午油价从日内高位回落，主要源自卡塔尔称阿曼与伊朗的谈判已进入“高级阶段”，并称收到双方积极反馈;同时，巴基斯坦国防部长公开判断美伊信号正“朝着有利于和平的方向演变”，巴内政部长已抵达德黑兰展开斡旋。这让市场重新评估中东地缘局势缓和的可能性。

In the afternoon, oil prices retreated from their intraday highs. This was mainly due to Qatar's statement that the negotiations between Oman and Iran have reached an "advanced stage", and it was also reported that positive feedback had been received from both sides. At the same time, the Pakistani defense minister publicly judged that the signals from the US and Iran were "evolving in a direction conducive to peace", and the Pakistani interior minister had already arrived in Tehran to mediate. This led the market to reassess the possibility of easing of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East.

不过整体评估当前让美伊再次谈判达成协议的可能性较小，伊朗方面在海峡开放上设置了极高的政治与经济门槛，并且态度强硬，另外伊朗任命强硬派上台并调整了军方高层，一系列的举措均显示伊朗方面对抗决心，除非给出足够的承诺，否则很难让伊朗做出让步，而面对伊朗的强势，特朗普选择了避其锋芒，试图冷处理伊朗谈判事宜。因此仅靠周二下午的消息难以真正打消市场顾虑，油价的高位回落只是投资者选择了观望，而并非预期反转。

However, the overall assessment indicates that the possibility of the US and Iran reaching an agreement through further negotiations is relatively low at present. The Iranian side has set extremely high political and economic thresholds for the opening of the strait, and has a tough stance. Additionally, the appointment of hardliners to key positions within Iran and the adjustment of the military leadership have all demonstrated Iran's determination to resist. Unless sufficient commitments are made, it will be difficult for Iran to make concessions. In the face of Iran's assertiveness, Trump chose to avoid confrontation and attempted to handle the Iranian negotiation matters in a cool manner. Therefore, the information released on Tuesday afternoon is not sufficient to truly alleviate market concerns. The decline in oil prices to a high level is merely a sign that investors are choosing to wait and see, rather than expecting a reversal.

EIA短期能源展望中将年度油价预期上调5美元，因霍尔木兹海峡再次封锁下调了将全球原油产量，因地缘冲击导致供需预期数据持续大幅调整，这也是导致投资者难以对油价形成统一持续性预期的关键，从而导致油价连续大幅波动。凌晨API公布周度数据显示美国至8月7日当周原油库存增加907.2万桶，这一数字远超预期，如果晚间EIA周报印证这一数据或会缓解市场焦虑。油价在过去几天的表现显示市场的担忧情绪升温，如果地缘层面没有明确缓解，预计油价将维持强势格局，并随着各类消息维持大幅波动，注意风险控制，谨慎参与。

In the EIA's short-term energy outlook, the annual oil price forecast has been raised by $5 due to the re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The global crude oil production has been lowered as the supply and demand expectations data have been continuously and significantly adjusted due to the geopolitical shocks. This is the key factor that makes it difficult for investors to form a unified and sustained expectation for oil prices, resulting in continuous and significant fluctuations in oil prices. The API released the weekly data in the early morning, showing that the crude oil inventory in the United States increased by 9.072 million barrels from August 7th to the end of the week. This figure far exceeded expectations. If the EIA weekly report confirms this data in the evening, it may alleviate market anxiety. The performance of oil prices in the past few days indicates that market concerns have intensified. If there is no clear resolution in the geopolitical aspect, it is expected that oil prices will maintain a strong trend and continue to fluctuate significantly with various news. Pay attention to risk control and be cautious when participating.