产地安监偏紧的节奏没有变，叠加部分矿区受降雨影响生产受限，短期产量端看不到明显增量。

The regulatory pace in the production area remains tight. In addition, some mining areas have experienced production restrictions due to rainfall. Therefore, there is no obvious increase in short-term production volume.

最新调研数据出来了，产地供应端依然偏紧。

The latest research data has been released, and the supply side at the production site remains tight.

截至8月6日当周，中介机构调研的160家动力煤矿，产量1518.9万吨，环比前一周降0.98%;库存378.5万吨，环比前一周降1.17%。

As of the week ending August 6th, the 160 power coal mines surveyed by the intermediary organizations produced 1518.9 million tons, a decrease of 0.98% compared to the previous week; their inventory was 378.5 million tons, a decrease of 1.17% compared to the previous week.

产量在降，库存也在降。160家样本矿的库存已经降到378.5万吨，说明矿上并不积压——煤生产出来就拉走了，没有多余的堆在矿上。

Output is decreasing, and inventory is also decreasing. The inventory of 160 sample mines has dropped to 378.5 million tons, indicating that there is no stockpiling at the mines - the coal is transported away as soon as it is produced, with no excess left to pile up at the mines.

7月30日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作，会议强调，要切实筑牢安全屏障。深入排查整治各类风险隐患，坚决遏制重特大事故发生。

On July 30th, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a meeting to analyze and study the current economic situation and economic work. The meeting emphasized that we must firmly build a safety barrier. We should thoroughly investigate and rectify all kinds of risks and hidden dangers, and resolutely prevent major accidents from occurring.

8月5日，CCI指数三档继续全线上涨：

On August 5th, all three sections of the CCI index continued to rise across the board:

5500大卡：839元/吨(+5)

5500 kcal: 839 yuan/ton (+5)

5000大卡：750元/吨(+5)

5000 kcal: 750 yuan/ton (+5)

4500大卡：661元/吨(+6)

4,500 kcal: 661 yuan/ton (+6)

从7月10日的800元/吨到8月5日的839元/吨，CCI 5500大卡累计上涨39元/吨，涨幅接近5%。涨势没有放缓，三档指数单日涨幅保持在5-6元，节奏有所加快。

From 800 yuan/ton on July 10th to 839 yuan/ton on August 5th, the CCI 5500 kcal index has risen by 39 yuan/ton cumulatively, with an increase of nearly 5%. The upward trend has not slowed down. The single-day increase of the three-tier indices remains between 5 and 6 yuan, and the pace has accelerated.

需求端，数字还在刷新纪录。

On the demand side, the figures continue to set new records.

广东7月全社会用电量达到1007.98亿千瓦时，成为全国首个单月用电量突破千亿度的省份。工业用电是增长主力，高端制造新动能持续发力。

In July, the total electricity consumption of Guangdong Province reached 100.798 billion kilowatt-hours, making it the first province in the country to have a single-month electricity consumption exceeding 100 billion kilowatt-hours. Industrial electricity consumption was the main driver of growth, and new forces in high-end manufacturing continued to exert their influence.

江苏方面，7月31日电网最高用电负荷达1.609亿千瓦，较去年最高增长432万千瓦，成为国家电网系统内首个突破1.6亿千瓦的省级电网。

In Jiangsu Province, on July 31st, the maximum electricity load of the power grid reached 160.9 million kilowatts, an increase of 4.32 million kilowatts compared to last year's peak, making it the first provincial power grid within the national power grid system to exceed 160 million kilowatts.

沿海六大电的数据同样值得关注。8月5日，沿海六大电合计库存1420.8万吨(-5.4)，日耗94.04万吨(-0.61)，可用天数15天(持平)。

The data of the six major power plants along the coast are also worthy of attention. On August 5th, the total inventory of these six major power plants was 1420.8 million tons (-5.4), the daily consumption was 94.04 million tons (-0.61), and the available days were 15 days (unchanged).

沿海六大电日耗虽较前日小幅回落0.61万吨，但仍维持在94万吨以上的高位。库存连续多日下降，从月初的1433万吨滑到1420万吨，可用天数稳在15天——不算紧张，但也谈不上宽裕。电厂补库的压力依然存在。

Although the daily consumption of the six major coastal power plants decreased slightly by 0.61万吨 compared to the previous day, it still remained at a high level of over 940,000 tons. The inventory has been declining for several consecutive days, dropping from 14.33 million tons at the beginning of the month to 14.20 million tons. The available days are stable at 15 days - not extremely tight， but also not overly abundant. The pressure for power plants to replenish their stocks still exists.

国际端也在收紧。

The international front is also tightening.

印度7月燃煤发电量达114.7太瓦时，同比增长13%，创同期历史新高。受疲软且分布不均的季风影响，水电出力下降，降温用电需求攀升，煤电被迫顶上。

In July, India's coal-fired power generation reached 114.7 terawatt-hours, up by 13% year-on-year and setting a new record for the same period. Due to the weak and uneven monsoon, hydropower output decreased, while the demand for cooling electricity rose, forcing coal power to step in.

——印度的煤电需求在季风疲弱的年份总是格外强劲。114.7太瓦时、同比+13%，意味着国际煤炭需求端也在加速消耗。

-- In India, the demand for coal-generated electricity is always particularly strong during years when the monsoon is weak. 114.7 terawatt-hours, with a year-on-year increase of 13%, indicates that the international coal demand side is also accelerating its consumption.

俄罗斯方面，据《生意人报》8月初报道，截至7月底，俄罗斯可供煤炭出口的船舶数量大幅减少。黑海地区可用散货船数量一个月内下降21%，原因是航运风险上升。远东地区因船舶运力减少，加之韩国需求增长，运费上涨5%至10%。

In Russia, according to the "Businessman's Newspaper" report in early August, by the end of July, the number of ships available for coal export in Russia had significantly decreased. The number of available bulk carriers in the Black Sea region dropped by 21% within a month due to the rising shipping risks. In the Far East region, due to the reduction in ship capacity and the increase in demand from South Korea, freight rates rose by 5% to 10%.

——俄罗斯煤炭出口的物流瓶颈在加剧。船少了、运费涨了，俄煤到岸成本被推高，对国内进口煤的到港价格形成支撑。再加上霍尔木兹海峡虽然传出恢复通行的消息，但从临时协议到实际恢复正常运营还需要时间，短期航运成本的回落空间有限。

-- The logistics bottlenecks for Russia's coal exports are intensifying. There are fewer ships and higher freight costs, pushing up the cost of Russian coal at the port of arrival and providing support for the import coal prices in the domestic market. Moreover, although there is news of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the transition from the temporary agreement to the actual resumption of normal operations will take time, and the potential for a short-term reduction in shipping costs is limited.

另外，受台风"白海豚"影响，国家海洋预报台8月6日8时发布海浪橙色警报，东海东部将出现6到10米的狂浪到狂涛区。台风对沿海电厂的煤炭接卸和航运调度会产生短期扰动。

Additionally, due to the influence of Typhoon "White Dolphin", the National Ocean Forecasting Station issued an orange alert for sea waves at 8:00 on August 6th. The eastern part of the East China Sea will experience waves ranging from 6 to 10 meters, which are extremely rough. The typhoon will cause short-term disruptions to the coal unloading at coastal power plants and the shipping scheduling.

短期煤价偏强格局延续。

The strong trend of short-term coal prices continues.

供应端，产地产量和库存双降，安监偏紧态势未改，短期增量有限。

On the supply side, both production output and inventory have decreased, and the tight safety supervision situation remains unchanged. There will be limited short-term growth.

需求端，六大电日耗维持高位、印度煤电创新高——国内外需求端同步走强。

On the demand side, the daily power consumption of the six major power plants remains at a high level, and the coal power consumption in India has reached a new high - both domestic and international demand sides are strengthening simultaneously.

国际端，俄罗斯出口运力收缩、运费上涨，进口煤到港成本抬升，对国内煤价形成间接支撑。

Internationally, Russia's export transportation capacity has shrunk, freight rates have risen, and the cost of imported coal arriving at ports has increased, providing indirect support for domestic coal prices.

8月，煤价的底，仍在继续抬高。

In August, the bottom of the coal price continued to rise.