财联社5月13日讯：美伊僵持不下、霍尔木兹海峡交通持续停滞，石油供应不足似乎到目前为止还在可承受范围内。个中缘由也很简单：全球石油储备提供了重要缓冲。然而随着储量迅速减少，这场“蓄势待发”的全面石油危机似乎很快到了，发达国家也不能幸免。

Caixin News 5/13: The standoff between the US and Iran, the continuous traffic disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, and the insufficient oil supply seem to be within the tolerable range so far. The reason for this is quite simple: Global oil reserves provide an important buffer. However, as the reserves are rapidly decreasing, this "ready-to-break-out" full-scale oil crisis seems to be approaching soon, and even developed countries are not spared.

道琼斯能源指数 炼油和石油产品执行董事JaimeBrito表示，从地缘政治角度来看，目前和平谈判的僵局以及最后通牒和延期交织的情况可能会持续很长时间。

Jaime Brito, the executive director of refining and petroleum products at the Dow Jones Energy Index, said from a geopolitical perspective, the current stalemate in peace negotiations, along with the interweaving of ultimatums and postponements, is likely to persist for a long time.

“但从能源的角度来看，这是一个滚雪球效应——每过一周，市场就会更加紧张，”他补充说。

"But from an energy perspective, this is a snowball effect - every week that passes, the market becomes more tense," he added.

瑞士证券投资公司的分析师警告说，如果中东战争不能迅速结束，包括依赖丰富石油储备的G7发达国家在内的世界“将开始面临石油短缺”。摩根大通的分析师最近也表示，发达国家的商业原油库存到6月初可能接近运营压力水平。

Analysts from a Swiss investment firm have warned that if the war in the Middle East does not end quickly, the world "will begin to face oil shortages". JPMorgan Chase's analysts also recently stated that the commercial crude oil inventories of developed countries might approach the operational pressure level by early June.

各方缓冲即将失效

All buffers are about to expire.

尽管从账面上看，全球原油库存充足，其中包括企业持有的商业库存和政府持有的战略库存。但并非所有原油都能随时供应，而库存过低也会带来一系列问题。关于究竟有多少原油被囤积，各方估计不一，因为企业和政府都对此讳莫如深：他们不愿让世人确切知道他们囤积了多少原油。

Although on paper, global crude oil inventories are sufficient, including commercial inventories held by enterprises and strategic inventories held by governments, not all crude oil can be supplied at any time. Moreover, low inventories can also bring a series of problems. Regarding exactly how much crude oil has been hoarded, different parties have different estimates, because both enterprises and governments are reticent about this: they do not want the public to know exactly how much crude oil they have hoarded.

摩根士丹利的分析师近期估计，全球商业原油库存和战略石油储备（SPR）原油库存约为57.5亿桶，法国兴业银行的估计约为78亿桶，摩根大通的估计约为82亿桶——这三家机构均采用了官方和私人数据的综合估算。

Morgan Stanley's analysts recently estimated that global commercial crude oil inventories and strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) crude oil inventories are approximately 5.75 billion barrels. Société Générale's estimate is around 7.8 billion barrels, and JPMorgan Chase's estimate is about 8.2 billion barrels - all three institutions have used a combined estimation of official and private data.

3月份，国际能源署（IEA）协调成员国从战略储备中释放了4亿桶石油，缓解了部分石油短缺问题。此外，包括全球航空公司削减航班和亚洲国家实施的限制措施在内的需求抑制，也有助于缓解原油生产中断的情况。

In March, the International Energy Agency (IEA) coordinated its member countries to release 400 million barrels of oil from their strategic reserves, which alleviated some of the oil shortage problems. Additionally, demand suppression factors such as the reduction of flights by global airlines and the restrictions implemented by Asian countries also helped to alleviate the situation of crude oil production disruptions.

据摩根大通的数据，3月份全球石油需求平均每日下降280万桶，4、5月份更是逐月递增，分别达到每日430万桶和每日约550万桶。

According to data from JPMorgan Chase, global oil demand dropped by an average of 2.8 million barrels per day in March. In April and May, the decline continued to increase month by month, reaching 4.3 million barrels per day and approximately 5.5 million barrels per day respectively.

大摩分析师周一表示，石油市场正处于“与时间赛跑”的状态，因为如果霍尔木兹海峡持续关闭到6月份，那么此前为抑制原油价格波动而采取的各种措施将会失效。

A Morgan Stanley analyst said on Monday that the oil market is in a "race against time" because if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed until June, all the measures previously taken to curb fluctuations in crude oil prices will be rendered ineffective.

全供应链危机

The entire supply chain crisis

与此同时，伴随着全面石油危机而来的还有一个更糟糕的局面：一场几乎涉及所有资源的“全面危机”。

At the same time, along with the overall oil crisis came an even worse situation: a "total crisis" that affected almost all resources.

分析指出，霍尔木兹海峡中断不仅使燃油价格飙升，更像多米诺骨牌一样，压缩了制造鞋类、服装和塑料袋等日常用品所需的石化产品供应。随着塑料、橡胶和聚酯材料价格上涨，压力正迅速蔓延至全球消费市场的每一个角落。

The analysis indicates that the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz not only led to a sharp increase in fuel prices, but also, like a domino effect, reduced the supply of petrochemical products needed for manufacturing daily items such as shoes, clothing, and plastic bags. As the prices of plastics, rubber, and polyester materials rose, the pressure is rapidly spreading to every corner of the global consumer market.

商业智能联合负责人Dan Martin此前表示，“这会迅速渗透到所有方面：啤酒、面条、薯片、玩具、化妆品。塑料瓶盖、包装盒、零食袋和容器正变得越来越难以获得，而石油衍生物更是制造鞋类和家具的粘合剂、机械润滑剂以及油漆溶剂的核心。”

The co-head of Business Intelligence, Dan Martin, previously stated, "This will quickly permeate all aspects: beer, noodles, chips, toys, cosmetics. Plastic bottle caps, packaging boxes, snack bags and containers are becoming increasingly difficult to obtain, and petroleum derivatives are the core materials used to make adhesives for shoes and furniture, mechanical lubricants, and paint solvents."