中东局势骤然升级，给全球能源市场造成了罕见的剧烈震荡，也让产业链各环节承受严酷“烤”验。

The situation in the Middle East has suddenly escalated, causing a rare and severe shock to the global energy market and subjecting all links of the industrial chain to harsh tests.

　　3月以来，国际油价自每桶70美元附近开始飙涨，最高一度逼近每桶120美元，随后又急速回落至每桶80美元附近，走出了史诗级巨震的行情。3月12日，布伦特原油盘中再度升破每桶100美元，国内能源化工期货市场早盘有12个品种报出涨停，文华商品指数更是创下了近两年新高。

Since March, international oil prices have soared from around $70 per barrel, reaching a peak of nearly $120 per barrel at one point. Then they rapidly dropped back to around $80 per barrel, forming an epic market fluctuation. On March 12th, Brent crude oil price broke through $100 per barrel again during trading. In the domestic energy and chemical futures market, 12 varieties reported a涨停 (i.e.， a 10% increase limit-up) in the morning session. The Wenhua Commodity Index even reached a new high in the past two years.

　　位于中东的霍尔木兹海峡，被喻为全球能源大动脉，一旦被切断，全球能源、化工、农业乃至宏观金融资产的定价逻辑都将被重新改写。围绕这一轮油价巨震，证券时报记者近日采访了多位期货分析师和贸易商、产业企业的相关人士，试图还原地缘冲突冲击下的大宗商品市场传导路径。

The Strait of Hormuz, located in the Middle East, is regarded as the global energy artery. If it is cut off, the pricing logic of global energy, chemicals, agriculture, and even macro financial assets will all be rewritten. In response to this round of significant oil price fluctuations, Securities Times reporters recently interviewed several futures analysts, traders, and relevant personnel from industrial enterprises to try to restore the transmission path of the commodity market under the impact of geopolitical conflicts.

　　交易机制放大波动

The trading mechanism amplifies fluctuations.

　　作为全球能源运输的重要咽喉，霍尔木兹海峡承担着亚洲石化原料的关键运输任务。数据显示，2025年亚洲约60%的石脑油进口、45%的液化石油气（LPG）进口以及50%左右的甲醇进口，都依赖于这一通道。该通道一旦受阻，能源供应链将迅速承压。

As a crucial chokepoint for global energy transportation, the Strait of Hormuz undertakes the critical transportation task of Asian petrochemical raw materials. Data shows that in 2025, approximately 60% of Asia's naphtha imports, 45% of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) imports, and around 50% of methanol imports all rely on this passage. If this passage is blocked, the energy supply chain will be under immediate pressure.

　　自美以袭击伊朗以来，国际油价在短短十余天内从70美元/桶附近迅速攀升。3月9日，布伦特原油期货盘中最高触及119.50美元/桶，创下近四年来新高。随后，布伦特原油期货又快速跳水至80美元/桶上方，走出了极端的“过山车”行情。3月12日，供应中断的担忧卷土重来，推动布伦特原油期货再度升破100美元/桶，并重燃国内商品市场的做多热情，能化板块的PTA、PX、瓶片、短纤、乙二醇等12个品种纷纷报出涨停。不过，午后多个品种的涨幅有所缩窄，收盘仅有对二甲苯封住涨停。

Since the US-Israeli attack on Iran, international oil prices have risen rapidly from around $70 per barrel within just a few days. On March 9th, the Brent crude oil futures reached a peak of $119.50 per barrel during the trading session, setting a new high in the past four years. Subsequently, the Brent crude oil futures quickly dropped back above $80 per barrel, presenting an extreme "roller coaster" pattern. On March 12th, concerns over supply disruptions resurfaced, pushing the Brent crude oil futures to rise above $100 per barrel again and reigniting the bullish sentiment in the domestic commodity market. Twelve varieties in the petrochemical sector, including PTA, PX, bottle chips, short fibers, and ethylene glycol, all reported limit up (closed at the top of the range). However， the gains of several varieties narrowed in the afternoon， and only paraxylene sealed the limit up (closed at the top of the range) at the close.

　　平安期货分析师李晨阳认为，本轮油价暴涨的核心逻辑在于中东局势升级带来的“确定性供给收缩”，而霍尔木兹海峡通航受阻正是关键导火索。“当前冲突已不再只是情绪层面的扰动，而是通过实质性的供应冲击，开始深刻改变原油乃至全球宏观资产的定价逻辑。”

Li Chenyang, an analyst at Ping An Futures, believes that the core logic behind this round of oil price surge lies in the "definite supply contraction" caused by the escalation of the situation in the Middle East. The obstruction of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is the key trigger. "The current conflict is no longer just an emotional disturbance, but has begun to profoundly change the pricing logic of crude oil and even global macro assets through a substantive supply shock."

　　广发期货研究所负责人张晓珍也指出，当前油价走势的核心变量就是霍尔木兹海峡的通航状况。“如果海峡恢复通航，油价大概率已经接近阶段性顶部；但如果持续封锁，随着库存逐渐消耗，市场将出现明显的预警信号：一是现货升水持续扩大，期货正套价差明显走强；二是下游化工品价格与原油相关性进一步提高，且波动率可能超过原油本身。”

Zhang Xiaozhen, the head of the Guangfa Futures Research Institute, also pointed out that the core variable influencing the current oil price trend is the navigation condition of the Strait of Hormuz. "If the Strait resumes navigation, the oil price is likely to have reached the peak of a certain period; but if it remains blocked, as the inventory gradually depletes, the market will show obvious warning signals: first, the spot premium will continue to expand, and the futures contango spread will significantly strengthen; second, the correlation between downstream chemical products and crude oil will further increase, and the volatility may exceed that of the crude oil itself."

　　不过，张晓珍认为，这一极端预测需要多个条件同时出现，包括海峡被封锁持续超过一个月、地缘冲突扩散至中东核心产油国等。目前来看，相关情景出现的概率正在下降。一方面，油价上涨过快将显著推升全球通胀压力，可能促使主要经济体释放战略石油储备；另一方面，石油出口是伊朗的经济命脉，海峡长期处于封锁状态同样会对其经济造成严重冲击。

However, Zhang Xiaozhen believes that this extreme prediction requires multiple conditions to occur simultaneously, including the blockade of the strait lasting for more than a month and the spread of geopolitical conflicts to the core oil-producing countries in the Middle East. At present, the probability of such scenarios occurring is decreasing. On one hand, the rapid increase in oil prices will significantly increase global inflationary pressure, possibly prompting major economies to release strategic oil reserves; on the other hand, oil exports are the economic lifeline of Iran, and the long-term blockade of the strait will also cause severe impacts on its economy.

　　同时，金融市场的交易机制也放大了油价的波动。此前，白银曾出现单日暴跌35%的极端行情，此次油价的剧烈震荡同样伴随着空头踩踏与量化交易的放大效应。

Meanwhile, the trading mechanism of the financial market has also exacerbated the fluctuations in oil prices. Previously, silver had witnessed an extreme situation where it plummeted by 35% in a single day. This time, the sharp fluctuations in oil prices were accompanied by short selling activities and the amplifying effect of quantitative trading.

　　李晨阳表示，当地缘冲突这一突发因素触发后，量化交易策略往往会进一步放大原油价格波动。在剧烈的单边行情中，趋势跟踪类量化策略几乎必然会助涨助跌。当油价突破90美元/桶、100美元/桶等关键心理关口时，大量模型会同步触发买入信号，从而在短时间内产生巨量买单，加速价格上涨的斜率。

Li Chenyang stated that when a sudden geopolitical conflict occurs, the quantitative trading strategy often amplifies the fluctuations in crude oil prices further. In a highly volatile single-directional market, trend-following quantitative strategies almost inevitably amplify both the upward and downward movements. When the oil price breaks through key psychological thresholds such as $90 per barrel and $100 per barrel, a large number of models will simultaneously trigger buy signals, thereby generating a huge volume of buy orders in a short period of time and accelerating the upward slope of the price.

　　下游化工市场担忧断供

The downstream chemical market is concerned about potential supply disruptions.

　　能源运输受阻的影响，已经迅速传导至化工产业链。霍尔木兹海峡的运输效率下降，原料到港节奏将首先受到冲击，并迅速向裂解端传导。

The impact of disrupted energy transportation has rapidly spread to the chemical industry chain. The transportation efficiency of the Strait of Hormuz has declined, and the arrival of raw materials will be the first to be affected, and the impact will quickly spread to the cracking end.

　　根据专业机构ICIS测算，东北亚乙烯装置平均开工率预计将从2月的83%下降至3月的73%。与此同时，化工现货市场价格也迅速飙升，在短短一周内，PX价格累计上涨超过22%，PTA价格涨幅超过20%，3月9日中石化PX现货价格上调400元/吨至8600元/吨。不过，随着油价有所回落，3月10日化工品价格也出现了一定回调。

According to the calculation by the professional institution ICIS, the average operating rate of ethylene plants in Northeast Asia is expected to drop from 83% in February to 73% in March. Meanwhile, the spot market prices of chemicals have also soared rapidly. Within just one week, the price of PX has risen by over 22%, and the price of PTA has increased by more than 20%. On March 9th, Sinopec raised the spot price of PX by 400 yuan per ton to 8,600 yuan per ton. However, as oil prices have slightly declined, the prices of chemical products also experienced a certain adjustment on March 10th.

　　“国内塑化行业之前报价1万元/吨，现在直接回到8000元/吨左右。”国内大型能化贸易商嘉悦物产集团总经理助理叶辰告诉证券时报记者，短短一天时间，现货基本面并没有太大变化，但市场情绪出现了巨大波动，波动幅度甚至超过期货。据其介绍，公司的大部分库存都通过期货套保进行了风险对冲，虽然现货价格上涨幅度超过了盘面，但通过套期保值也避免了较大的经营风险。

"Previously, the domestic plastic processing industry's quoted price was 10,000 yuan per ton. Now it has dropped back to around 8,000 yuan per ton." Ye Chen, the assistant general manager of Jiaoyue Materials Trading Group, a large domestic energy and chemical trading company, told Securities Times. In just one day, the spot market fundamentals did not change much, but the market sentiment fluctuated greatly, with the fluctuation even exceeding that of the futures market. According to him, the company has hedged most of its inventory through futures trading, and although the price increase of the spot market exceeded the market surface, through hedging, it also avoided significant operational risks.

　　不过，面对如此剧烈波动的行情，公司仍面临着不小压力。“我们提前为套保头寸准备了充足保证金，否则在极端行情下很容易被迫平仓。对于资金体量有限的民营企业来说，这一点至关重要。”叶辰坦言。

However, in the face of such a volatile market, the company is still under considerable pressure. "We have prepared sufficient margin for our hedging positions in advance. Otherwise, in extreme market conditions, we would be forced to close out our positions. For private enterprises with limited capital, this is of crucial importance," Ye Chen said frankly.

　　相比之下，更多现货企业对“断货”的担忧更为强烈。

In contrast, more physical goods enterprises have a stronger concern about "stockout" issues.

　　杭州一家塑料企业负责人表示，公司已经启动合同中的“不可抗力”条款，与客户协商上调部分价格，同时延长部分交货周期。

The head of a plastic manufacturing company in Hangzhou said that the company has activated the "force majeure" clause in the contract, negotiated with customers to raise some prices, and also extended the delivery periods for some products.

　　张晓珍指出，在当前高波动率环境下，套保策略的核心应是“优化结构而非简单加仓或止损”。对于原油下游产业来说，应采用“近月合约为主、远月合约为辅”结构，避免过度对冲导致错失成本传导的机会。若已被套保的头寸出现浮亏，不宜盲目止损，而应通过调整合约月份展期操作，锁定长期成本。

Zhang Xiaozhen pointed out that in the current high-volatility environment, the core of hedging strategies should be "optimizing the structure rather than simply increasing positions or setting stop-losses". For the downstream industries of crude oil, a structure of "mainly using near-month contracts and supplemented by far-month contracts" should be adopted to avoid excessive hedging that leads to missing opportunities for cost transmission. If the positions that have been hedged show a loss, it is not advisable to blindly set stop-losses; instead, through adjusting the contract months for rollover operations, the long-term costs can be locked in.

　　供应冲击向更多商品蔓延

Supply shocks are spreading to a wider range of goods.

　　来自原油市场的供应冲击，正在向更多商品蔓延。

The supply shock from the crude oil market is spreading to more commodities.

　　根据Refinitiv数据，3月9日全球动力煤价格基准——ICE纽卡斯尔煤炭期货次月合约上涨约9.3%，触及150美元/吨，为2024年11月以来最高水平。与中东局势爆发前的2月27日相比，该价格已累计上涨约28%。欧洲市场同样反应剧烈，鹿特丹煤炭价格一度上涨至119.5美元/吨，创下52周新高。

According to Refinitiv data, on March 9th, the global benchmark price for thermal coal - the ICE Newcastle Coal Futures contract for the next month - rose by approximately 9.3%, reaching $150 per ton, the highest level since November 2024. Compared to February 27th, before the outbreak of the situation in the Middle East, this price has increased by approximately 28%. The European market also reacted strongly, with the price of coal in Rotterdam reaching $119.5 per ton at one point, setting a new 52-week high.

　　此外，化肥市场也出现了明显波动。

Furthermore, there have also been significant fluctuations in the fertilizer market.

　　伊朗是全球重要的氮肥、磷肥出口国，中东局势紧张导致全球化肥供应迅速收紧。截至上周，美国尿素价格已升至550美元/吨，一周内上涨约70美元。

Iran is a major exporter of nitrogenous and phosphatic fertilizers worldwide. The tense situation in the Middle East has led to a rapid tightening of global fertilizer supply. As of last week, the price of urea in the United States has risen to $550 per ton, increasing by approximately $70 within a week.

　　这一变化已经开始影响到农业市场。国贸期货农产品首席分析师杨璐琳表示，目前油脂价格的核心逻辑仍是沿袭“原油—生物柴油—植物油”的传导链条。在原油维持高位的情况下，植物油价格往往易涨难跌，类似2022年俄乌冲突时期的行情。不过，若地缘局势缓和导致油价快速回落，植物油价格也可能同步大幅回调。

This change has already begun to affect the agricultural market. Yang Lulin, the chief analyst of agricultural products at Guotong Futures, said that the core logic of current oil prices still follows the transmission chain of "crude oil - biodiesel - vegetable oil". When crude oil remains at a high level, vegetable oil prices tend to rise rather than fall, similar to the situation during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict. However, if the geopolitical situation improves and oil prices fall rapidly, vegetable oil prices may also undergo a significant downward adjustment simultaneously.

　　与此同时，化肥价格上涨还可能改变全球农作物种植结构。“大豆具有固氮特性，对化肥依赖较低。如果化肥价格持续上涨，美国农民可能在2026年春季播种时将部分玉米的种植面积转让给大豆，从而影响远期农产品供应格局。”杨璐琳表示，市场正密切关注即将发布的USDA种植意向报告。

At the same time, the increase in fertilizer prices may also change the global agricultural planting structure. "Soybeans have the characteristic of nitrogen fixation and have a lower dependence on fertilizers. If the fertilizer prices continue to rise, American farmers may transfer part of the corn planting area to soybeans during the spring sowing in 2026, thereby affecting the future supply pattern of agricultural products." Yang Lulin said that the market is closely watching the upcoming USDA planting intention report.

　　持续高油价或拖累全球经济

Continued high oil prices may drag down the global economy.

　　从产业链角度看，成本传导正在呈现明显分化。

From the perspective of the industrial chain, the cost transmission is showing significant differentiation.

　　张晓珍指出，目前成本传导呈现“上游顺畅、中下游受阻”的特征。上游油气、PX等产品领域达成成本传导的比率较高，基本实现了全转嫁；中游聚酯、合成橡胶等加工环节的传导率稍低一些，企业通过压缩加工费吸收部分成本；下游纺织、家电、汽车等终端行业则受制于终端需求复苏乏力，难以持续提价，因此传导率较低。

Zhang Xiaozhen pointed out that currently, the cost transmission shows the characteristic of "smooth transmission in the upstream sector, but blocked in the downstream sectors". The rate of cost transmission in the upstream sectors such as oil and gas, and PX has been relatively high, and full cost transfer has been basically achieved; the transmission rate in the midstream processing sectors such as polyester and synthetic rubber is slightly lower. Enterprises absorb part of the costs by reducing processing fees; the downstream industries such as textiles, home appliances, and automobiles are constrained by the weak recovery of terminal demand and thus have difficulty in continuously raising prices, so the transmission rate is relatively low.

　　“若油价维持在100美元/桶以上超过1个月，大量中小企业可能出现减产或停产的负反馈，倒逼产业链供需再平衡。当化工品终端品种开始出现负反馈的情况，供应端已经预期的扰动会钝化，市场容易转向交易需求端并从下游传导回上游。”张晓珍说。

"If the oil price remains above $100 per barrel for more than one month, a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises may experience production cuts or shutdowns, creating a negative feedback loop that forces the balance of supply and demand within the industrial chain. When negative feedback begins to occur in the terminal varieties of chemical products, the expected disturbances on the supply side will be mitigated, and the market is likely to shift towards trading in the demand side and pass the impact back up the supply chain." Zhang Xiaozhen said.

　　李晨阳则认为，高油价对全球经济的影响关键在于其持续的时间。“短暂的几周上涨，更多影响的是市场情绪，但如果油价在100美元/桶附近持续两到三个月，将显著抬升运输、制造等成本，并侵蚀消费能力。”

Li Chenyang believes that the impact of high oil prices on the global economy mainly depends on the duration of the increase. "A short-term increase of a few weeks mainly affects market sentiment. However, if the oil price remains at around $100 per barrel for two to three months, it will significantly raise transportation, manufacturing and other costs, and erode consumer purchasing power."

　　值得警惕的是，持续高油价可能迫使全球央行重新收紧货币政策，从而与高能源成本形成“共振”，加速经济下行。

It is worth noting that persistently high oil prices may force global central banks to re-tighten monetary policies, thus creating a "resonance" with high energy costs and accelerating economic downturn.

　　“如果供应危机在未来几周仍无法缓解，油价持续站上110美元/桶并延续至第二季度末，全球经济在下半年陷入衰退的概率将显著上升。”李晨阳说。

"If the supply crisis does not ease up in the coming weeks, and if oil prices remain above $110 per barrel and continue to do so until the end of the second quarter, the probability of the global economy entering a recession in the second half of the year will significantly increase," said Li Chenyang.

　　此外，持续高油价也将倒逼能源转型。近年来，在多轮能源危机冲击下，全球企业已经从“被动应对”逐渐转向“主动转型”。航运、化工等行业开始探索多元能源替代路径，部分高耗能企业加快光伏、风电项目建设，并通过绿电交易降低能源成本。

Furthermore, the persistently high oil prices will also force an energy transition. In recent years, under the impact of multiple energy crises, global enterprises have gradually shifted from "passive response" to "active transformation". The shipping and chemical industries have begun to explore alternative energy paths, and some high-energy-consuming enterprises have accelerated the construction of photovoltaic and wind power projects and reduced energy costs through green electricity trading.

　　不过，张晓珍表示，能源转型是长期过程，短期内企业仍需以期货套保、原料替代、降本增效等手段应对高油价冲击，同时把握转型带来的结构性机会。长期来看，高油价将持续倒逼产业链优化，加速能源结构向清洁化、多元化转型。

However, Zhang Xiaozhen stated that the energy transition is a long-term process. In the short term, enterprises still need to adopt measures such as futures hedging, raw material substitution, cost reduction and efficiency improvement to cope with the impact of high oil prices. At the same time, they should seize the structural opportunities brought about by the transformation. In the long term, high oil prices will continue to drive the optimization of the industrial chain and accelerate the transformation of the energy structure towards cleanliness and diversification.

来源:煤炭资讯网(www.cwestc.com)及其原创作者