3月10日，全球能源市场再次站上“风口浪尖”。国际油价由暴涨转为大跌，跌破每桶90美元。此前，受中东局势升级等影响，国际油价一度逼近每桶120美元。On March 10th, the global energy market once again found itself at the center of attention. International oil prices shifted from a sharp increase to a significant decline, falling below $90 per barrel. Previously, due to the escalation of the situation in the Middle East and other factors, international oil prices had approached $120 per barrel.

面对剧烈波动的市场，专家们普遍作出“不必过度担忧”的判断；并表示，这是我国能源保供、绿色转型同向发力带来的“底气”。In the face of the highly volatile market, experts generally made the judgment that "there is no need to be overly worried"; and they also stated that this is the "confidence" brought about by the concerted efforts of energy supply security and green transformation in our country.

——放眼全球，油价冲高回落，市场终将回归供需基本面。

Looking globally, oil prices have risen and then fallen. Eventually, the market will return to its fundamental basis of supply and demand.

冲突之中，“缓冲剂”已经出现。当地时间3月9日，七国集团成员国财政部长与国际能源署举行视频会议，讨论在必要时联合释放战略石油储备。金联创原油分析师奚佳蕊认为，石油消费国正在寻求紧急措施，如释放原油战略储备、放松部分石油制裁、暂停燃油出口等，平抑飙升的原油价格。多名专家表示，从更长期来看，全球石油市场的供需结构并未发生根本改变，油价终将回归理性。During the conflict, a "buffer" has emerged. On March 9th local time, the finance ministers of the G7 member countries and the International Energy Agency held a video conference to discuss jointly releasing strategic oil reserves if necessary. Xhi Jiarui, an analyst at Jinlian Chuang Oil Price, believes that oil-consuming countries are seeking emergency measures, such as releasing strategic oil reserves, easing some oil sanctions, and suspending fuel exports, to stabilize the soaring oil prices. Many experts said that from a longer-term perspective, the supply and demand structure of the global oil market has not fundamentally changed, and oil prices will eventually return to rationality.

——立足国内，中国市场的稳定性正在经历一场前所未有的“压力测试”，“需求弹性”和“供应韧性”共同发力，守护能源安全。Based on the domestic market, the stability of the Chinese market is undergoing an unprecedented "stress test". The "demand elasticity" and "supply resilience" are working together to jointly safeguard energy security.

看需求侧，一张“绿色的网”成为应对外部变局的坚固防线。Looking at the demand side, a "green network" has become a solid defense line to cope with external changes.

2025年，我国非化石能源消费占比达到21.7%。光大证券石化化工交运行业首席分析师赵乃迪在研究报告中表示，我国在煤化工、新能源、清洁电力等领域提前布局、持续投入，形成传统化石能源与替代能源协同发展的格局，既丰富了能源供给结构，也构建了应对外部冲击的战略缓冲与长期替代能力。中国石油大学（北京）教授孙仁金说：“交通运输是能源消费大户。我国成品油消费量已达峰，2025年新能源乘用车市场渗透率突破50%，大大降低了对化石能源的依赖。”中国石油规划总院高级专家玉德俊介绍，日本、韩国用于发电的天然气占比较高，对价格、供应波动更敏感，而我国恰逢供暖季结束，天然气需求自然回落，且全社会用电量中近40%是绿电，新能源占比的提升进一步缓解了天然气供应压力。In 2025, the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption in China will reach 21.7%. Zhao Naidi, the chief analyst of the Petrochemical and Chemicals and Transportation Industry at Everbright Securities, stated in a research report that China has made early preparations and continuous investments in areas such as coal chemical industry, new energy, and clean electricity, forming a pattern where traditional fossil energy and alternative energy develop in synergy. This not only enriches the energy supply structure but also builds strategic buffers and long-term substitution capabilities to cope with external shocks. Professor Sun Renjin from China University of Petroleum (Beijing) said: "Transportation is a major consumer of energy. China's consumption of refined oil has reached its peak, and the penetration rate of new energy passenger cars in the market will exceed 50% in 2025, significantly reducing reliance on fossil energy." The senior expert Yu Dejun from China Petroleum Planning and Design Institute introduced that Japan and South Korea have a relatively high proportion of natural gas used for power generation, which is more sensitive to prices and supply fluctuations. However, China is in the end of the heating season, and the demand for natural gas naturally decreases, and nearly 40% of the total electricity consumption in the country is green electricity. The increase in the proportion of new energy further alleviates the pressure on natural gas supply.

看供应端，我国储备体系日臻完善，储备能力快速增长，应急管理水平不断提高。Looking at the supply side, our country's reserve system has been continuously improved, the reserve capacity has been growing rapidly, and the emergency management level has been constantly enhanced.

油气保供“压舱石”更稳。2025年，国内原油产量达2.16亿吨，国内油气储量产量均创历史新高。赵乃迪在研究报告中分析，央企增储上产成效显著，多年来坚决落实增储上产部署，持续加大国内油气勘探开发力度，储量和产量稳步提升，形成了可靠的本土供应托底能力，大幅增强了能源安全韧性。厦门大学中国能源政策研究院教授张博认为，国内油气产量“基本盘”能够保障核心工业体系运转，在新能源系统韧性尚未完全形成的过渡期，国内的油气产量仍将发挥“兜底保障”作用；此次能源市场波动证明，必须立足于以国内资源保障国家油气核心需求。The "ballast stone" for oil and gas supply security has become even more stable. By 2025, domestic crude oil production will reach 216 million tons, and both domestic oil and gas reserves and production will reach record highs. Zhao Naidi analyzed in a research report that state-owned enterprises have achieved remarkable results in increasing reserves and production. Over the years, they have resolutely implemented the deployment for increasing reserves and production, continuously strengthened domestic oil and gas exploration and development efforts, and steadily increased reserves and production, forming a reliable domestic supply support capability, significantly enhancing energy security resilience. Professor Zhang Bo from the China Energy Policy Institute at Xiamen University believes that the "basic foundation" of domestic oil and gas production can ensure the operation of the core industrial system. During the transitional period when the resilience of the new energy system has not yet been fully formed, domestic oil and gas production will still play the role of "guaranteeing and supporting". This energy market fluctuation proves that we must rely on domestic resources to ensure the core demand for oil and gas of the country.

进口资源更加多元化。中国石油经济技术研究院石油市场研究所所长王海博表示，中国石油在国际油气合作区积极参与合作开发，拥有可观的海外份额油和权益油，同时依托海外三大油气运营中心，持续优化全球贸易网络，有效提升了在全球范围内的贸易保供能力和应急调控水平。中国石油国家高端智库特聘专家王俊仁介绍，我国拥有陆上三大油气进口通道，在海上航道持续受阻的情况下，可进一步提高中哈原油管道、中国—中亚天然气管道、中缅油气管道等管道输送负荷，形成“多源互补”格局，突出陆路通道的战略价值。“在进口油气资源渠道上，应重新调整油气供应格局，兼顾稳定性和安全性。”王俊仁说。The sources of imports have become more diversified. Wang Haibo, the director of the Petroleum Market Research Institute of the China Petroleum and Natural Gas Technology and Economic Research Institute, stated that China Petroleum actively participates in cooperative development in international oil and gas cooperation zones, possesses considerable overseas oil reserves and equity oil, and, relying on the three major overseas oil and gas operation centers, continuously optimizes the global trade network, effectively enhancing its trade supply guarantee capabilities and emergency regulation levels on a global scale. Wang Junren, a special-appointed expert of China Petroleum's national high-end think tank, introduced that China has three major land-based oil and gas import channels. In the case of continuous obstruction on the sea routes, it can further increase the transportation load of pipelines such as the China-Kazakhstan crude oil pipeline, the China-Central Asia natural gas pipeline, and the China-Myanmar oil and gas pipeline, forming a "multi-source complementary" pattern, highlighting the strategic value of the land-based channels. "In terms of the channels for importing oil and gas resources, the oil supply pattern should be re-adjusted, taking into account both stability and safety," Wang Junren said.

无论外部风云如何变幻，中国石油都将坚决当好能源保供“顶梁柱”，努力构建新型能源体系，为经济社会平稳运行提供坚实支撑，在风高浪急中行稳致远。No matter how the external circumstances change, China National Petroleum Corporation will resolutely play the role of the "pillar" in ensuring energy supply, strive to build a new energy system, provide solid support for the stable operation of the economy and society, and move steadily and far ahead in the face of strong winds and rough seas.