全球天然气消费预计将在七年内第三次下降，尽管其他地区生产商提供的液化天然气供应有助于抵消中东的损失

World’s gas consumption is forecast to drop for the third time in seven years, even as LNG supply from producers in other regions helps offset losses in the Middle East

根据国际能源署最新的季度市场报告，中东战争的影响持续重塑全球天然气市场，供应紧张和价格上涨对关键市场的需求造成压力。

The impacts of the war in the Middle East continue to reshape the global natural gas market, with tighter supply and elevated prices weighing on demand in key markets, according to the IEA’s latest quarterly market report.

报告预测，今年全球天然气需求预计将下降0.5%，主要原因是电力和工业部门的天然气使用减少。这将是七年内第三次需求按年收缩。

Global gas demand is expected to decline by 0.5% this year, the report forecasts, due primarily to lower gas use in the power and industrial sectors. This would mark the third time demand has contracted on an annual basis in seven years.

今日发布的第三季度天然气市场报告，探讨了市场如何应对霍尔木兹海峡天然气运输的重大中断，该海峡此前是全球液化天然气（LNG）约20%供应的通道。自6月中旬美伊达成结束敌对行动并重新开放海峡的临时协议以来，LNG运输船通过海峡的数量有所增加，但交通量仍远低于冲突前水平，未来贸易流前景充满不确定性。亚洲和欧洲的天然气价格较三月的高点有所回落，但仍远高于2025年水平。

The Gas Market Report for the third quarter, published today, examines how markets have responded to the major disruptions to gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, previously the conduit for roughly 20% of the global supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG). While the transit of LNG carriers through the Strait has been on the rise since the United States and Iran reached an interim agreement in mid-June to end hostilities and reopen the Strait, traffic remains well below pre-conflict levels and significant uncertainty surrounds the outlook for future trade flows. Natural gas prices in Asia and Europe have moderated from recent highs in March but remain well above 2025 levels.

初步数据显示，2026年上半年全球天然气需求同比收缩。这在很大程度上是由中东地区需求下降以及供应紧张和天然气密集型产业受损所推动的。亚洲天然气需求也因价格上涨及政策措施减少需求、鼓励燃料转向煤炭而有所放缓。

Initial data suggests that global demand for natural gas contracted in the first half of 2026 year-on-year. This appears to have been largely driven by a decline in demand in the Middle East amid tighter supply and damage to gas-intensive industries. Gas demand has also softened in Asia amid higher prices and policy measures to reduce demand and to encourage fuel switching, particularly to coal in the power sector.

报告指出，卡塔尔和阿联酋的液化天然气供应大幅下降，3月至6月期间产量较2025年同期下降近80%。然而，2026年全年供应预计将与2025年基本保持不变，因为其他地区的生产商将提升产量——包括北美、非洲和澳大利亚的新液化天然气项目。与此同时，如果霍尔木兹海峡的全面重启推迟到今年第四季度初以后，可能会引发自2012年以来全球液化天然气供应的首次年度下降。

According to the report, the fall in LNG supply from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates has been steep, with output declining by almost 80% in the March-June period compared with the same four months in 2025. However, for the full year of 2026, supply is forecast to be largely unchanged from 2025 as producers in other regions boost output – including from new LNG projects in North America, Africa and Australia. At the same time, if a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is delayed beyond the beginning of the fourth quarter of this year, it could trigger the first annual decline in global LNG supply since 2012.

报告称，冲突对液化天然气供应的影响预计将延续至2026年之后。在2月底战争爆发前，全球天然气市场平衡自2025年下半年开始放缓，新的LNG供应设施投入使用。然而，近期供应中断和天然气基础设施的损坏——包括卡塔尔拉斯拉夫凡——全球最大的液化场地——预计将阻碍卡塔尔计划中的液化天然气产能扩展。对预计供应增长的影响主要集中在2026年和2027年，这意味着未来两年市场可能比预期更为紧缩。

The implications of the conflict for LNG supply are set to extend beyond 2026, according to the report. Before the outbreak of the war at the end of February, the global gas market balance had been easing since the second half of 2025 as new LNG supply facilities came online. However, near-term supply disruptions and damage to gas infrastructure – including to Qatar’s Ras Laffan, the world’s largest liquefaction site – are expected to set back Qatar’s planned LNG capacity expansion. The impacts on projected supply growth are set to be largely concentrated in 2026 and 2027, which means markets could remain tighter than had been previously expected over the next two years.

新报告还强调了全球天然气市场的变动如何传递给能源行业的其他部分及更广泛的经济。例如，这场冲突深刻影响了全球化肥供应链，而天然气是其主要原料。这对食品供应安全，尤其是世界上最脆弱的地区，具有重大影响。

The new report also highlights the ways in which disruptions in the global gas market are feeding through to other parts of the energy sector and wider economy. For example, the conflict has profoundly affected global supply chains for fertilisers, for which natural gas serves as a key feedstock. This has significant implications for food supply security, especially in the world’s most vulnerable regions.