LNG供应短缺、气价上涨，全球能源格局深度调整，霍尔木兹海峡航运受阻的影响已实实在在传导至用气终端。外部环境“风高浪急”，国内天然气产业正迎来一场“压力测试”。

Shortage of LNG supply, rising gas prices, and profound adjustment of the global energy landscape have all led to the actual transmission of the impact of blocked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz to the end-users of gas. The external environment is "stormy and turbulent", and the domestic natural gas industry is currently undergoing a "stress test".

当前，国内天然气行业面临双重压力与挑战——地缘冲突引发的短期供应缺口，新型电力系统对灵活调节资源的长期需求。在保供与调峰的双重需求叠加下，行业需完成从被动跟随国际价格，到构建本土定价体系、从单一燃料供应商到多能融合系统参与者的转变。

Currently, the domestic natural gas industry is confronted with two sets of pressures and challenges - the short-term supply gap caused by geopolitical conflicts, and the long-term demand for flexible resource regulation from the new power system. Under the combined demand of ensuring supply and peak regulation, the industry needs to complete the transformation from passively following international prices to establishing a local pricing system, and from being a single fuel supplier to a participant in the multi-energy integration system.

在近日举行的2026年天然气产业发展大会（春季）上，多位与会专家表示，未来天然气不再是过渡能源，而将成为新型电力系统的刚性支撑。同时，形成具有国际影响力的中国天然气价格指数已刻不容缓。

At the recent 2026 Natural Gas Industry Development Conference (Spring), several experts present at the event stated that in the future, natural gas will no longer be a transitional energy source but will instead become a crucial pillar of the new power system. At the same time, it is imperative to establish a China-based natural gas price index with international influence.

运输搁浅供应受阻

Transportation has been stranded and supplies are blocked.

霍尔木兹海峡是波斯湾沿岸LNG出口设施的唯一出海通道。2025年，卡塔尔、阿曼和阿联酋合计供应LNG约9700万吨，占全球总量的23%，其中近九成销往亚洲。海峡航运受阻，加之卡塔尔能源公司遭袭停产，三国LNG出口几乎归零。

The Strait of Hormuz is the sole sea access route for LNG export facilities along the coast of the Persian Gulf. In 2025, Qatar, Oman and the United Arab Emirates collectively supplied approximately 97 million tons of LNG, accounting for 23% of the global total. Nearly 90% of this was sold to Asia. Due to the disruption of shipping in the strait and the suspension of production at Qatar's energy company following an attack, the LNG exports of the three countries almost ceased.

从亚洲市场看，我国从卡塔尔和阿联酋进口的LNG占其总进口量的31%，相当于全年天然气消费总量的7%，已签署的中东资源长协量为每年17.3百万吨。据测算，如果卡塔尔天然气供应中断持续数月，我国进口LNG降幅可达约24%。可供市场量随之缩减至1530亿立方米，同比减少2%，全国天然气消费量将同步下降约两个百分点。

From the perspective of the Asian market, China's imports of LNG from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates account for 31% of its total imports, equivalent to 7% of the annual total natural gas consumption. The signed long-term resource contracts from the Middle East amount to 17.3 million tons per year. According to calculations, if the supply of natural gas from Qatar is interrupted for several months, China's imports of LNG could decrease by approximately 24%. The available market volume would then shrink to 153 billion cubic meters, a 2% decrease compared to the previous year, and the national natural gas consumption would also decline by about two percentage points.

多位与会人士表示，相较于总量缺口问题，区域错配也亟待解决。当前，进口LNG主要供应东南沿海，国产气和进口管道气主供北方和中西部，而长输管网的节点瓶颈限制了西北富余资源向沿海高效流动。一旦迎峰度夏期间出现长时间极端高温，东南沿海将被迫在国际市场抢购高价现货，年内国内天然气价格易涨难跌。

Several participants at the meeting stated that, compared to the issue of total supply gap, regional imbalance also urgently needs to be addressed. Currently, imported LNG is mainly supplied to the southeastern coast, while domestic gas and imported pipeline gas are mainly supplied to the north and central-west regions. The bottleneck of the long-distance pipeline network restricts the efficient flow of surplus resources from the northwest to the coastal areas. If there is a prolonged extreme high temperature during the peak summer demand period, the southeastern coast will be forced to purchase high-priced spot gas on the international market, and the domestic natural gas price is likely to rise rather than fall this year.

中国经济信息社董事长潘海平表示，全球地缘政治博弈持续加剧，深刻影响全球能源格局，也给国际天然气供应链、贸易流向及定价体系带来重大变革。“要坚持安全为先，统筹好国内国外两种资源，持续夯实产业链供应链韧性。”

Pan Haiping, the chairman of China Economic Information Co., Ltd., said that the global geopolitical competition is intensifying continuously, which profoundly affects the global energy landscape and also brings significant changes to the international natural gas supply chain, trade flow and pricing system. "We must prioritize safety, coordinate the utilization of both domestic and foreign resources, and continuously strengthen the resilience of the industrial chain and supply chain."

据了解，上海石油天然气交易中心已与相关油气企业合作推出管道气公开市场交易、“易气无忧”交易、“管网通”等创新产品，为市场余缺调剂和保供稳价提供了重要方案和渠道。

It is understood that the Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange has collaborated with relevant oil and gas enterprises to launch innovative products such as the public market trading of pipeline gas, the "Easy Gas Assurance" trading, and the "Pipeline Connectivity" program, providing important solutions and channels for balancing market supply and demand and ensuring stable prices.

气电被推上调节前台

The pneumatic cylinder has been moved to the control panel.

除短期供应冲击之外，长期结构性需求正在重塑天然气的角色定位。

Apart from short-term supply shocks, long-term structural demand is reshaping the role of natural gas.

近年来，我国风光发电新增装机规模占全球同期新增装机的六成，全国风光发电利用率保持在95%以上。截至2025年年底，风光累计并网装机达18.4亿千瓦，历史性超过火电，2030年预计接近30亿千瓦。

In recent years, China's newly installed capacity of wind and solar power accounted for 60% of the global total newly installed capacity during the same period. The utilization rate of wind and solar power generation across the country has remained above 95%. By the end of 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of wind and solar power connected to the grid reached 1.84 billion kilowatts, surpassing thermal power for the first time in history. It is expected to approach 3 billion kilowatts by 2030.

随着风光大规模并网，电网对日内调峰、快速爬坡等灵活调节资源的需求大幅上升。天然气发电因启停灵活、爬坡性能优越，可有效填补这一缺口。

With the large-scale integration of renewable energy sources, the demand for flexible regulation resources such as day-ahead peak shaving and rapid ramping in the power grid has significantly increased. Natural gas power generation, due to its flexible start-stop capabilities and superior ramping performance, can effectively fill this gap.

华北电力大学教授张粒子表示，当前的新型电力系统建设中，用于保障实时平衡的灵活性电力资源已显现稀缺状态。“光伏大规模并网导致系统日净负荷峰谷差持续扩大，日出和日落时段净负荷陡降陡增，日内调峰和快速爬坡资源日趋紧张。风光发电的随机性和波动性还放大了季节性电力供需差异，对长期备用资源的需求大幅上升。”

Professor Zhang Zili from North China University of Electric Power stated that in the current construction of the new power system, the flexible power resources used to ensure real-time balance have shown a state of scarcity. "The large-scale grid connection of photovoltaic power has led to a continuous expansion of the daily net load peak-to-valley difference of the system, with a sudden increase and decrease in the net load during sunrise and sunset periods. The resources for peak shaving and rapid climbing are becoming increasingly scarce. The randomness and volatility of wind and solar power generation have also amplified the seasonal differences in power supply and demand, resulting in a significant increase in the demand for long-term backup resources."

“天然气发电在新型电力系统中应承担多重功能，一是提供可靠容量，在净负荷高峰时段和季节成为保供电源。二是作为灵活性调节资源，在电力现货市场中实现启停调峰，在电力辅助服务市场中提供爬坡、备用、转动惯量等服务。”张粒子说，“气电比煤电更清洁，气源有保障的情况下其容量可靠性与煤电相当、调节性能也更好，这些优势使其成为连接传统能源与新能源的天然纽带。”

"Gas-fired power generation should play multiple roles in the new power system. Firstly, it should provide reliable capacity, serving as a backup power source during peak load periods and in different seasons. Secondly, it can act as a flexible regulation resource, achieving start-stop peak shaving in the electricity spot market and providing services such as ramping, backup, and rotational inertia in the auxiliary service market." Zhang Zili said, "Gas power is cleaner than coal power. With a guaranteed gas supply, its capacity reliability is comparable to that of coal power and its regulation performance is also better. These advantages make it a natural link connecting traditional energy sources and new energy sources."

但气电的发展并非一路坦途。与会专家认为，由于天然气合同量的市场化程度相对不足，与电力市场发展不同步，气电难以与风光发电充分灵活互补。可再生能源发电能力对气电的发电量和收益影响较大，燃料供应也可能形成制约。换而言之，气电想当“调节尖兵”，却被市场机制不完善绑住了手脚。

However, the development of gas power generation has not been a smooth path. The experts present at the meeting believe that due to the relatively insufficient marketization of natural gas contract volumes and the lack of synchronization with the development of the power market, gas power generation is difficult to fully and flexibly complement with wind and solar power generation. The power generation capacity of renewable energy sources has a significant impact on the power generation volume and income of gas power generation, and fuel supply may also pose constraints. In other words, gas power generation, which is supposed to be a "regulation pioneer", has been restrained by the imperfect market mechanism.

对于解决路径，张粒子建议，储气站的规划和建设需统筹考虑天然气发电的需求。同时，建立天然气短期交易市场，实现天然气市场与电力市场协同运行。潘海平表示，天然气与风光等新能源不是此消彼长的关系，而应优势互补、协同发力。要畅通气电协同、多能互补的发展路径，让天然气在能源转型中真正当好“桥梁”与“伙伴”。

Regarding the solution approach, Zhang Ziwei suggests that the planning and construction of gas storage stations should take into account the demand for gas-fired power generation. At the same time, a short-term gas trading market should be established to enable the coordinated operation of the gas market and the power market. Pan Haiping stated that natural gas and new energy sources such as wind and solar power are not in a competitive relationship but should complement each other and work together. To facilitate the development path of gas-electricity synergy and multi-energy complementarity, natural gas should truly play the role of a "bridge" and "partner" in the energy transition.

价格指数亟待突破

The price index urgently needs to break through.

多位与会专家表示，短期保供与长期调峰的双重压力，最终都指向价格这一制度性短板。

Several experts present at the meeting stated that the dual pressures of short-term supply guarantee and long-term peak load regulation ultimately point to the institutional weakness of prices.

北京大学能源研究院副院长杨雷认为，“十五五”是攻关新能源波动性与系统灵活性不足的关键五年，做大天然气需求、破除增长瓶颈，不仅事关天然气在新型能源体系中的定位，更直接关系到油气企业的可持续发展。

Yang Lei, the deputy director of the Energy Research Institute of Peking University, believes that the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is a crucial five-year period for addressing the issues of the volatility of new energy and the insufficiency of system flexibility. Expanding the demand for natural gas and breaking through the growth bottleneck are not only related to the positioning of natural gas in the new energy system, but also directly affect the sustainable development of oil and gas enterprises.

虽然目前已有28家民营企业进入上游勘探开发领域，三桶油之外有17家企业签署42份LNG长协合同，市场化定价气量占比超过50%，但距离形成充分竞争、价格信号真实反映供需的市场环境，仍有不小差距。

Although 28 private enterprises have entered the upstream exploration and development sector at present, and 17 enterprises outside the "Three Major Oil Companies" have signed 42 long-term LNG contracts, with the proportion of market-based priced gas volumes exceeding 50%, there is still a considerable gap from achieving a fully competitive market environment where price signals truly reflect supply and demand.

“当前，中国缺乏有影响力的天然气价格指数，只能跟随国际价格走势。”杨雷说，“中国作为全球最大增量天然气市场，只能间接影响全球价格，而价格恰恰是制约天然气发展的核心因素。”

"At present, China lacks influential gas price indices and can only follow the trends of international prices," Yang Lei said. "As the world's largest incremental gas market, China can only have an indirect impact on global prices, and prices are precisely the core factor that restricts the development of the gas industry."

要完善市场结构设计和区域竞争性市场建设，尽早构建具有国际影响力的价格指数。同时，调动相关企业积极性，建设风光气储综合电厂，打造多能融合示范基地。还要积极发展综合能源服务，在燃气发电、零碳油气田、综合能源服务站等领域，推动天然气与其他能源协同融合发展，提高终端能源消费清洁化、低碳化、高效化、智能化水平。

It is necessary to improve the design of market structure and the construction of regional competitive markets, and to establish a price index with international influence as soon as possible. At the same time, it is necessary to mobilize the enthusiasm of relevant enterprises to build comprehensive power plants integrating wind, solar, gas and storage, and create a multi-energy integration demonstration base. We should also actively develop comprehensive energy services. In the fields of gas power generation, zero-carbon oil and gas fields, and comprehensive energy service stations, we should promote the coordinated development of natural gas and other energy sources to improve the cleanliness, low-carbonization, efficiency and intelligence level of terminal energy consumption.

潘海平表示，要持续完善“X+1+X”油气市场体系，优化交易规则与资源调配，推出更多贴合市场需求的新产品，让市场机制成为产业高质量发展的引擎。

Pan Haiping stated that we should continuously improve the "X + 1 + X" oil and gas market system, optimize trading rules and resource allocation, and launch more new products that meet market demands, so that the market mechanism can become the engine for the high-quality development of the industry.