当欧洲的天然气买家正为供应短缺而焦虑时，美国得克萨斯州却深陷产量过剩的烦恼，生产商甚至不得不将多余的天然气作燃烧处理。

While European gas buyers are worried about the shortage of supply, Texas in the United States is grappling with an excess of production. Producers there even have to burn off the surplus gas.

　　根据北美天然气价格指数公司NGI的最新数据，步入2026年以来，二叠纪盆地基准天然气价格处于负值区域交易的时间已远超正常区间，且短期内毫无缓解迹象。过去一周内，该盆地瓦哈天然气交易枢纽的现货价格一度暴跌至每百万英热单位-9.75美元，预计今年晚些时候可能触及-10美元的历史低位。

According to the latest data from the North American Natural Gas Price Index company NGI, since the beginning of 2026, the benchmark natural gas price in the Permian Basin has been trading in the negative zone for a much longer period than normal, and there is no sign of improvement in the short term. Over the past week, the spot price at the Waha natural gas trading hub in this basin plummeted to -$9.75 per million British thermal units, and it is expected to reach a historical low of -$10 later this year.

　　与此同时，截至3月23日，欧洲天然气基准期货价格（DutchTTFNaturalGasFutures）收于每兆瓦时61.8欧元，相比一个月前涨幅超过一倍。面对高企的成本，欧盟委员会已敦促成员国下调天然气储备目标。

Meanwhile, as of March 23rd, the European benchmark gas futures price (Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures) closed at 61.8 euros per megawatt-hour, having risen by more than double compared to a month ago. Faced with the high costs, the European Commission has urged member states to lower their gas reserve targets.

　　高盛全球大宗商品研究联席主管兼石油研究主管斯特鲁伊文（DaanStruyven）对第一财经记者表示，欧洲在当前局势中处于不利位置。他称，相比美国仅受高油价的单一影响，欧洲正承受着高油价、高气价以及高电价的三重打击。由于欧洲电力市场约60%的时间由天然气定价，这种高度耦合使得欧洲在能源危机面前比亚洲和美国更加脆弱。

Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research and head of oil research at Goldman Sachs, told First Finance that Europe is in an unfavorable position in the current situation. He said that compared to the United States, which is only affected by high oil prices, Europe is suffering from the triple blow of high oil prices, high gas prices, and high electricity prices. Since about 60% of the European electricity market is priced by natural gas, this high degree of coupling makes Europe more vulnerable to the energy crisis than Asia and the United States.

　　为什么美国会出现天然气负价

Why did natural gas prices turn negative in the United States?

　　这种天然气“负价”现象根源于西得州二叠纪盆地独特的生产结构。在该地区，天然气大多是石油开采伴生的副产品。受中东局势引发的供应中断影响，全球原油价格一路走高，激励钻探商维持极高的原油产出。目前，当地石油产量正处于历史高位，天然气的产量也水涨船高。

This "negative price" phenomenon of natural gas is rooted in the unique production structure of the Permian Basin in West Texas. In this area, natural gas is mostly a by-product of oil extraction. Affected by the supply disruptions caused by the situation in the Middle East, global crude oil prices have been rising steadily, motivating drilling companies to maintain extremely high crude oil output. Currently, the local oil production is at a historical high, and the production of natural gas has also increased accordingly.

　　然而，据报道，当地的基础设施建设未能跟上产量的增速。虽然该地区拥有成熟的管道网络将原油运往港口，但针对天然气的运输外输能力却严重滞后。生产商为了不关停高利润的油井，不得不支付费用请客户接收多余的天然气，这便导致了“负价”的出现。在极端情况下，生产商只能选择将其重新注入地下封存，或亏本销往其他仍有余力的地区。

However, it is reported that the local infrastructure development has failed to keep pace with the growth rate of production. Although the region has a mature pipeline network to transport crude oil to the ports, the transportation and export capacity for natural gas is seriously lagging behind. To avoid shutting down the highly profitable oil wells, producers have to pay fees to have customers accept the excess natural gas, which has led to the emergence of "negative prices". In extreme cases, producers can only choose to reinject it underground for storage, or sell it at a loss to other regions that still have the capacity.

　　因此，对于不愿支付这笔“处理费”的得州生产商而言，要么停产，要么向州政府监管机构申请批准，通过燃烧过剩天然气来腾出产能。当前，尽管面临天然气价格倒挂，但在石油巨额利润的覆盖下，生产商并无削减产量的动力。根据芝商所（CME）数据，自中东局势升级以来，西得克萨斯中质原油（WTI）期货价格已飙升50%至每桶99.89美元。受此驱动，能源咨询公司EnergyAspects称，今年的天然气燃烧事件已飙升至五年来的最高季节性水平。

Therefore, for Texas producers who are unwilling to pay this "processing fee", they have two options: either to halt production or to apply for approval from the state government regulatory agency to burn excess natural gas to free up production capacity. Currently, despite the situation of inverted natural gas prices, producers do not have the motivation to reduce production because of the huge profits from oil. According to data from CME, since the escalation of the situation in the Middle East, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures has soared by 50% to $99.89 per barrel. Driven by this, the energy consulting company EnergyAspects stated that the number of gas burning incidents this year has soared to the highest seasonal level in five years.

　　能源研究公司EDA分析师威尔逊（RobWilson）称：“当前的制约因素并非经济效益，而是基础设施。”EBW分析集团分析师鲁宾（EliRubin）也表示，二叠纪盆地的负电价状态预计将在春季的大部分时间持续。

EDA analyst Rob Wilson from the Energy Research Company said, "The current constraints are not economic benefits, but infrastructure." Eli Rubin, an analyst from EBW Analysis Group, also stated that the negative electricity price situation in the Permian Basin is expected to persist for most of the spring.

　　与北美的局部过剩形成强烈反差的是，欧洲和亚洲的能源版图正因中东局势而伤痕累累。卡塔尔能源公司（QatarEnergy）19日表示，袭击已导致其损失了约17%的出口能力，且修复周期长达五年。

In sharp contrast to the local overproduction in North America, the energy landscape in Europe and Asia is severely damaged due to the situation in the Middle East. Qatar Energy stated on the 19th that the attacks have caused a loss of approximately 17% of its export capacity, and the repair process will take up to five years.

　　在这一局势下，美国液化天然气（LNG）出口商被视为潜在的最大赢家。美国LNG出口商VentureGlobal首席执行官萨贝尔（MichaelSabel）本月向投资者表示，美国新增的LNG产能将使该国在市场动荡中发挥关键作用。私募股权公司Kimmeridge执行合伙人戴尔（BenDell）也认为，考虑到澳大利亚等其他主要供应国的产能已接近极限且气源不足，全球买家很难有第二选择。

In this situation, US liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporters are regarded as the potential biggest winners. Michael Sabel, the CEO of US LNG exporter VentureGlobal, told investors this month that the increased LNG production capacity in the US will enable the country to play a crucial role in the face of market instability. Ben Dell, the executive partner of private equity firm Kimmeridge, also believes that given that the production capacity of other major supply countries such as Australia is already close to its limit and there is a shortage of gas sources, global buyers have few alternative options.

　　欧洲的应对思路

The response strategies of Europe

　　随着地缘冲突持续威胁能源通道，欧盟开始对天然气库存水平感到焦虑。自2022年以来，欧盟曾强制要求成员国在冬季前实现90%的储气目标。但根据瑞士联邦能源办公室数据，截至23日，欧盟整体储备仅为28.5%。

As geopolitical conflicts continue to pose a threat to energy routes, the EU has begun to show anxiety over its gas inventory levels. Since 2022, the EU has required its member states to achieve a 90% gas storage target by winter. However, according to data from the Swiss Federal Office of Energy, as of the 23rd, the overall EU reserve was only 28.5%.

　　德国储气协会（INES）总经理海内曼（SebastianHeinermann）在近日的一份声明中表示：“现状是不可持续的。现有机制不足以确保天然气供应安全，因为填补储气设施的激励措施并不充分。”

Sebastian Heinermann, the general manager of the German Gas Storage Association (INES), stated in a recent statement: "The current situation is unsustainable. The existing mechanism is insufficient to ensure the security of natural gas supply, as the incentives for filling up the storage facilities are not adequate."

　　分析表示，欧盟补库难度的增加还得归因于来自亚洲的激烈竞争。相比欧洲，亚洲对曾流经波斯湾的天然气船货有着更直接的依赖。这可能导致年中气价走高，从而削弱交易员“春夏季储气、冬季卖出”的动力。

The analysis indicates that the increased difficulty of replenishing stocks in the EU can also be attributed to intense competition from Asia. Compared to Europe, Asia has a more direct reliance on natural gas shipments that once passed through the Persian Gulf. This could lead to higher gas prices in the middle of the year, thereby weakening the motivation of traders to "store gas in spring and summer and sell it in winter".

　　欧洲天然气工业联盟（Eurogas）也警告称，LNG作为一种灵活资产，往往流向出价最高的买家，但欧盟对LNG船货的严格监管在某种程度上降低了欧洲市场的吸引力，这进一步挤压了欧盟在日益紧张的市场中锁定货源的机会。

The European Gas Industry Alliance (Eurogas) has also warned that LNG, as a flexible asset, often flows to the highest bidder. However, the strict EU regulations on LNG shipments have, to some extent, reduced the attractiveness of the European market, further squeezing the EU's opportunities to secure supplies in an increasingly tense market.

　　为了防止各成员国在入冬前因抢购而再次推高价格，欧盟开始寻求政策松绑。欧盟能源专员约根森（DanJørgensen）在20日指示欧盟各国能源部长不要急于补充本国已耗尽的天然气储备，而应利用“灵活性”来抑制家庭和工业的需求。

To prevent price hikes due to panic buying by member states before the onset of winter, the EU has begun to seek policy relaxation. EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen instructed EU energy ministers on the 20th that they should not rush to replenish their depleted gas reserves in their respective countries, but instead should utilize "flexibility" to curb the demand from households and industries.

     约根森提议将填充目标暂降至80%，比2022年立法规定的目标低10个百分点，并将达标时间点推迟至12月1日，较2022年的时间点推迟了一个月。此外，他建议各国采取分阶段储备策略，避免在夏末出现压力巨大的“冲刺式填充”。

Jorgensen proposed to temporarily lower the filling target to 80%, which is 10 percentage points lower than the target stipulated by the legislation in 2022. He also suggested postponing the target achievement date to December 1st, one month later than the 2022 deadline. Additionally, he recommended that each country adopt a phased reserve strategy to avoid the "sprint-like filling" under great pressure in the late summer.