高盛集团分析师表示，欧洲天然气价格可能需要在12月份升至每兆瓦时100欧元（约合117美元）以上，才能让欧洲补充足够的库存，以支撑整个冬季的需求。

Analysts from Goldman Sachs Group stated that the price of natural gas in Europe might need to rise above 100 euros per megawatt-hour (approximately 117 US dollars) in December in order to enable Europe to replenish sufficient stocks to meet the demand throughout the winter.

高盛分析师Samantha Dart和Laura Cyr在报告中写道，即便近期欧洲天然气价格大幅上涨，如果中东供应中断持续至明年，欧洲仍难以从亚洲市场上吸引足够多的液化天然气（LNG）货物。

Goldman Sachs analysts Samantha Dart and Laura Cyr wrote in their report that even if the recent surge in European natural gas prices occurs, if the supply disruption in the Middle East persists until next year, Europe will still struggle to attract sufficient liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes from the Asian market.

上周五，欧洲天然气基准价格——荷兰所有权转让中心（TTF）天然气期货价格一度升至66.79欧元，创3月20日以来的最高水平，较中东战事爆发前水平翻倍。

Last Friday, the European benchmark gas price - the gas futures price at the TTF (Trans-European Gas Transmission System) in the Netherlands - rose to 66.79 euros at one point, reaching its highest level since March 20th. It has doubled compared to the level before the outbreak of the war in the Middle East.

受霍尔木兹海峡航运持续受阻影响，中东能源运输量骤降，欧洲与亚洲争夺有限LNG货源的竞争也正在加剧，给欧洲买家带来了采购难题。

Due to the continuous disruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the volume of energy transportation in the Middle East has sharply declined. The competition between Europe and Asia for limited LNG supplies is also intensifying, posing a procurement challenge for European buyers.

霍尔木兹海峡是全球能源运输“咽喉”，此前承担全球约五分之一的原油和成品油运输，也是重要的液化天然气运输通道。

The Strait of Hormuz is the "throat" for global energy transportation. Previously, it handled approximately one-fifth of the world's crude oil and refined oil shipments, and it is also an important route for liquefied natural gas transportation.

前一天，伊朗最高国家安全委员会秘书雷扎伊表示，如果美国对伊朗继续发动经济战，则没有石油会通过霍尔木兹海峡乃至波斯湾地区出口。

The day before, Iran's Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Rezaei, stated that if the United States continues to wage an economic war against Iran, there will be no oil exported through the Strait of Hormuz or even the Persian Gulf region.

在能源流动被严重限制的情况下，欧洲正面临冬季来临前补充天然气库存的压力。天然气是欧洲发电广泛使用的燃料，通常在夏季完成库存补充，但今年的补库进度已经落后。

With the energy flow severely restricted, Europe is under pressure to replenish its natural gas reserves before winter arrives. Natural gas is a widely used fuel for power generation in Europe, and usually inventory replenishment is completed in the summer. However, this year's replenishment progress has fallen behind.

上周，德国能源储存倡议协会数据显示，德国天然气存储设施的储气率为49%，已跌至2011年有记录以来历年同期最低，去年同期为67%。

Last week, data from the German Energy Storage Initiative Association showed that the storage rate of natural gas facilities in Germany was 49%, which has dropped to the lowest level since records began in 2011 for the same period of the previous year. The rate was 67% last year.

由于当前天然气采购成本往往高于冬季市场可售出价格，企业缺乏经济动力向存储设施存入更多天然气。德国经济部表示，正在筹备应对预案，一旦局势恶化，可快速、有针对性地启动相关举措。

Due to the fact that the current cost of purchasing natural gas is often higher than the market selling price in winter, enterprises lack the economic motivation to store more natural gas in storage facilities. The German Ministry of Economy stated that it is preparing contingency plans, and in case the situation worsens, relevant measures can be quickly and targetedly initiated.

高盛分析师在上周日发布的报告中表示，按照目前的补库速度，西北欧天然气储存设施本月底的库存水平将达到51%，较高盛基准情景低3.4个百分点。

In a report released last Sunday, Goldman Sachs analysts stated that based on the current replenishment rate, the inventory level of natural gas storage facilities in Northwestern Europe will reach 51% by the end of this month, which is 3.4 percentage points lower than the benchmark scenario of Goldman Sachs.

分析师写道，目前的价格水平“不足以让欧洲安然度过冬季”，“如果中东能源出口直到2027年才逐步恢复正常，我们预计2026年12月的TTF天然气价格可能需要升至每兆瓦时100欧元以上。”

The analyst wrote that the current price level "is not sufficient to enable Europe to weather the winter safely", and "if energy exports from the Middle East do not gradually return to normal until 2027, we expect the TTF natural gas price in December 2026 to need to rise above 100 euros per megawatt-hour."

不过，天气预报可能成为欧洲的一线希望。高盛最新预测是建立在冬季气温接近历史平均水平的基础之上。

However, the weather forecast might be a glimmer of hope for Europe. Goldman Sachs' latest prediction is based on the assumption that winter temperatures will be close to the historical average.

能源研究机构Rystad Energy本月发布的报告提到，如果出现“超级厄尔尼诺”，使气温较历史平均水平高出2摄氏度，欧洲天然气需求可能下降，从而在一定程度上抵消库存偏低的影响。

The report released by energy research institute Rystad Energy this month stated that if a "super El Niño" occurs, raising the temperature by 2 degrees Celsius above the historical average, the demand for natural gas in Europe might decrease, thereby partially offsetting the impact of low inventories.