美伊就重开霍尔木兹海峡达成临时协议，引发全球油市剧烈震荡，华尔街主要银行下调油价预测，布伦特原油(607, -8.60, -1.40%)价格跌至三个月低点。

The US and Iran reached a temporary agreement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which caused severe fluctuations in the global oil market. Major banks on Wall Street lowered their oil price forecasts, and the price of Brent crude oil (607, -8.60, -1.40%) dropped to a three-month low.

周二，布伦特8月原油期货收跌4.21美元，跌幅5.06%，报78.96美元/桶。布油自6月11日起，连续4个交易日下跌，创今年以来最长连跌日。特朗普表示霍尔木兹海峡将于本周五重新开放，美伊双方预计届时在瑞士签署临时协议备忘录，但协议全文尚未公布。

On Tuesday, the Brent crude oil futures for August delivery closed down by $4.21, or 5.06%, at $78.96 per barrel. Since June 11th, Brent crude oil has fallen for four consecutive trading days, marking the longest consecutive decline this year. Trump said that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen this Friday, and both the US and Iran expect to sign a provisional agreement memorandum in Switzerland at that time, but the full text of the agreement has not been released yet.

高盛和摩根士丹利均已下调未来数季度油价预测，中东迪拜原油和穆尔班原油基准价格同步转入看跌的期货升水结构，显示市场预期供应过剩。

Both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have lowered their oil price forecasts for the coming quarters. The benchmark prices of Dubai crude oil and Murban crude oil in the Middle East have simultaneously shifted to a bearish futures premium structure, indicating that the market expects an oversupply situation.

此轮油价下跌将布伦特原油拉回至3月初以来的最低水平，基本抹去冲突期间的全部涨幅，在美联储本周评估利率走向之际，也有助于缓解通胀压力。不过，协议实施细节仍存在大量不确定性，包括航运安全、通行规则，以及这一战前承担全球约五分之一石油供应的咽喉要道能否维持免费通行等问题，均悬而未决。

This round of oil price decline has brought Brent crude back to its lowest level since early March, essentially erasing all the gains made during the conflict. At the same time, it also helps to alleviate inflationary pressure as the Federal Reserve assesses the direction of interest rates this week. However, there is still a great deal of uncertainty regarding the implementation details of the agreement, including shipping safety, traffic rules, and whether this strategic passage, which previously accounted for about one-fifth of the world's oil supply, can maintain free passage. All these issues remain unresolved.

高盛、大摩同步下调油价预测

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley simultaneously lowered their oil price forecasts.

高盛和摩根士丹利在协议消息公布后迅速修订油价展望。

After the announcement of the agreement, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley promptly revised their oil price outlooks.

高盛分析师Daan Struyven等人在研报中将2026年第四季度布伦特原油预测下调至每桶80美元，较此前预测低10美元；2027年全年均价预测则从80美元下调至75美元。

Goldman Sachs analysts Daan Struyven and others lowered their forecast for Brent crude oil prices in the fourth quarter of 2026 to $80 per barrel, which is $10 lower than the previous prediction; the forecast for the average price for the entire year of 2027 was also reduced from $80 to $75.

与此同时，高盛将波斯湾出口恢复至战前水平的时点从此前预计的8月底提前至7月底，并预计WTI原油2026年第四季度均价为75美元，2027年均价为70美元。

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast, moving the timeline for restoring the Persian Gulf's export levels to pre-war levels from the previously expected end of August to the end of July. It also predicts that the average price of WTI crude oil in the fourth quarter of 2026 will be $75, and the average price in 2027 will be $70.

摩根士丹利分析师Martijn Rats等人在报告中写道：“目前仍有大量细节有待谈判，关键风险依然存在，但就目前而言，这是冲突降级、霍尔木兹海峡石油出口增加的重要一步。”摩根士丹利预计，到9月份波斯湾产量将恢复50%，到12月份恢复80%，较此前预测略有提速。

Morgan Stanley analysts Martijn Rats and others wrote in the report: "There are still many details to be negotiated, and key risks remain. But for now, this is an important step towards de-escalation of the conflict and an increase in oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz." Morgan Stanley expects that production in the Persian Gulf will recover by 50% by September and by 80% by December, with a slight acceleration compared to previous forecasts.

协议细节不明，市场仍存不确定性

The details of the agreement are unclear, and there is still uncertainty in the market.

尽管市场情绪明显转向，但协议落地的具体路径仍不清晰。

Although market sentiment has clearly shifted, the specific path for the agreement to be implemented remains unclear.

据报道，波斯湾能源官员表示，已收到大量买家询问原油能否再次经由霍尔木兹海峡运输，而航运高管和交易商则表示，在向该航线派遣船只之前，需要获得更多明确信息。欧洲盟友也对石油和液化天然气能否如此迅速恢复流通持保留态度。

It is reported that energy officials from the Persian Gulf have stated that they have received numerous inquiries from buyers regarding whether crude oil can once again be transported through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, shipping executives and traders have indicated that more clear information is needed before dispatching ships to this route. European allies are also reserved about whether oil and liquefied natural gas can resume circulation so quickly.

RBC Capital Markets持更为审慎的立场。该行分析师Helima Croft等人在报告中指出：“我们认为，要恢复到2月27日（战争爆发前）的水平，需要数月时间。霍尔木兹海峡的峰值流量实际上可能已经成为历史。”

RBC Capital Markets takes a more cautious stance. Analyst Helima Croft and others from the bank stated in their report: "We believe it will take several months to return to the level seen on February 27th (before the war broke out). The peak traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz may actually have become history."

供应冲击规模空前，库存已降至历史低位

The scale of the supply shock is unprecedented, and inventory levels have dropped to historically low levels.

霍尔木兹海峡遭受美伊双重封锁以来，全球石油供应格局承受巨大压力。

Since the Strait of Hormuz has been under dual blockade by the United States and Iran, the global oil supply pattern has been under tremendous pressure.

美国战略石油储备已降至1983年以来的最低水平。高盛估计，波斯湾石油流量已从3月初不足正常水平30%的低点，回升至6月中旬的约50%。

The US strategic oil reserve has dropped to its lowest level since 1983. Goldman Sachs estimates that the oil flow from the Persian Gulf has recovered from a low of less than 30% of normal levels in early March to approximately 50% by mid-June.

高盛还估算，此次中东供应冲击规模高达每日14百万桶，为有史以来最大单次石油供应冲击，但由于中国需求展现出显著灵活性，实际供应缺口在第二季度约为每日500万桶，小于冲击规模。

Goldman Sachs also estimated that the current supply disruption in the Middle East was as large as 14 million barrels per day, the largest single oil supply shock in history. However, due to the remarkable flexibility of China's demand, the actual supply gap in the second quarter was approximately 5 million barrels per day, which was smaller than the shock scale.

高盛预计，2027年全球石油市场将出现每日320万桶的大幅供应过剩，但认为届时布伦特原油价格仍可维持在75美元附近，原因在于经历2026年上半年大规模库存消耗后，经合组织商业库存不太可能攀升至极高水平，且一定程度的地缘政治安全溢价将为油价提供支撑。

Goldman Sachs predicts that there will be a significant daily supply surplus of 3.2 million barrels in the global oil market in 2027. However, it believes that the Brent crude oil price will still remain around $75 at that time. The reason is that after a large-scale inventory depletion in the first half of 2026, the commercial inventories of the OECD countries are unlikely to rise to extremely high levels, and a certain degree of geopolitical security premium will provide support for the oil price.

上下行风险并存，高盛净倾向上行

Both upward and downward risks coexist, and Goldman Sachs has a net tendency towards the upward direction.

高盛在报告中列出了油价预测的两种极端情景，并认为整体风险仍偏向上行。

Goldman Sachs listed two extreme scenarios for oil price predictions in its report, and believed that the overall risk still leans towards an upward trend.

上行情景下，若霍尔木兹海峡持续受阻至2027年，布伦特原油可能在2026年底升破每桶130美元，2027年均价达105美元。下行情景下，若波斯湾出口于7月初即恢复正常，叠加需求持续疲软和供应超预期增加，布伦特原油2026年第四季度均价可能跌至70美元以下，2027年均价则可能跌至60美元以下。

In the optimistic scenario, if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked until 2027, Brent crude oil may exceed $130 per barrel by the end of 2026 and reach an average price of $105 in 2027. In the pessimistic scenario, if the Persian Gulf exports return to normal in early July and are coupled with continued weak demand and unexpected increase in supply, the average price of Brent crude oil in the fourth quarter of 2026 may fall below $70, and the average price in 2027 may drop below $60.

此外，高盛指出，若伊朗获得制裁豁免，其产量存在超越战前水平的可能性，这将进一步增加供应端的不确定性。阿布扎比国家石油公司（Adnoc）已连续发出第三轮波斯湾原油招标，阿联酋持续寻求扩大出口，也在一定程度上印证了市场对供应回升的预期。

Furthermore, Goldman Sachs pointed out that if Iran were granted a sanctions exemption, its production could potentially exceed pre-war levels, which would further increase the uncertainty in the supply side. The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) has consecutively issued the third round of oil bidding in the Persian Gulf. The UAE's continuous pursuit of expanding exports also partially confirms the market's expectation of a supply recovery.