近日国际油价持续走高，WTI原油期货、布伦特原油期货均大涨超2%。消息面上，以色列国防部长卡茨表示，将进一步升级对伊朗的打击行动。另外，科威特大穆巴拉克港的基础设施27日凌晨遭无人机和巡航导弹攻击。

Recently, international oil prices have continued to rise, with both WTI crude oil futures and Brent crude oil futures increasing by more than 2%. On the news front, Israeli Defense Minister Katz stated that he will further escalate the strike against Iran. Additionally, the infrastructure of the Al-Mubarak Port in Kuwait was attacked by drones and cruise missiles at 2:00 a.m. on the 27th.

摩根大通在最新发布的报告中警告称，由于美伊战争导致霍尔木兹海峡石油运输中断，全球石油系统正从供应冲击转向库存枯竭问题，预计石油危机将按顺序冲击世界各地，从亚洲开始，经非洲，至欧洲，最终波及美国，大部分地区将在4月集中承压。

JPMorgan Chase warned in its latest report that due to the interruption of oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz caused by the US-Iran war, the global oil system is shifting from a supply shock to an issue of depleted inventories. It is expected that the oil crisis will impact various regions around the world in sequence, starting from Asia, then Africa, to Europe, and ultimately reaching the United States. Most regions will be under pressure in April.

原油直线拉升，北京时间3月27日晚间，国际油价持续拉升，截至21:25，WTI原油期货涨2.54%，报96.88美元/桶；布伦特原油期货涨2.11%，报104.3美元/桶。

Crude oil prices soared sharply. On the evening of March 27th Beijing time, international oil prices continued to rise. By 21:25, the WTI crude oil futures rose by 2.54% to $96.88 per barrel; the Brent crude oil futures rose by 2.11% to $104.3 per barrel.

消息面上，据央视新闻报道，当地时间27日，以色列国防部长卡茨表示，以色列国防军将进一步升级对伊朗的打击行动，扩大打击范围，覆盖更多目标和区域。

On the news front, according to CCTV News, on the 27th local time, Israeli Defense Minister Katz stated that the Israeli Defense Forces will further escalate their strikes against Iran, expanding the scope of the attacks to cover more targets and areas.

卡茨当天在与以军高级军官举行局势评估会议时表示，以方此前已警告伊朗停止向以色列平民发射导弹，但伊朗仍持续发射导弹。因此，以军将加大对伊朗的打击力度。

Katz said at a situation assessment meeting with senior Israeli military officers on that day that the Israeli side had previously warned Iran to stop firing missiles at Israeli civilians, but Iran continued to launch missiles. Therefore, the Israeli military will intensify its attacks on Iran.

伊朗伊斯法罕省负责安全事务的副省长当地时间27日表示，26人在美以前一日对伊斯法罕海夫通居民区的袭击中遇难，据称由于海夫通是一个典型的工人居住区，遇难者均为居住在该地区的居民。

The deputy governor for security affairs of Isfahan Province in Iran said on the 27th local time that 26 people were killed in an attack on the Hef Town residential area in Isfahan the day before in the United States. It is said that as Hef Town is a typical area for workers, all the victims were residents of that area.

此外，伊斯法罕的齐亚尔和阿帕达纳两个居民区也遭到袭击，这两处的袭击未造成人员死亡，仅有数名市民受伤。

In addition, the Ziarar and Apadana residential areas in Isfahan were also attacked. The attacks in these two areas did not result in any deaths, but several citizens were injured.

值得注意的是，中东战事外溢风险正在加剧。当地时间3月27日，科威特公共工程部在社交媒体发表声明说，科威特大穆巴拉克港的基础设施当天凌晨遭到无人机和巡航导弹攻击。

It is worth noting that the risk of the war in the Middle East spreading beyond its borders is increasing. On March 27th local time, the Public Works Department of Kuwait issued a statement on social media, saying that the infrastructure of the Al-Mubarak Port in Kuwait was attacked by drones and cruise missiles in the early hours of that day.

声明说，初步评估显示，此次袭击对港口设施造成损失，但没有人员伤亡报告。事件发生后，当局立即启动应急措施，正在与相关政府部门协调，评估损失程度，确保港口运营连续性。

The statement said that the initial assessment indicated that the attack had caused damage to the port facilities, but no casualties were reported. After the incident, the authorities immediately initiated emergency measures and are currently coordinating with relevant government departments to assess the extent of the damage and ensure the continuity of port operations.

声明没有提供有关袭击来源或受影响设施的更多细节。另据科威特港务局声明，当天早些时候，科威特舒韦赫港也遭到无人机袭击，造成财产损失，但没有人员伤亡。大穆巴拉克港位于科威特北部布比延岛，是当地重要的战略发展项目。

The statement did not provide more details about the source of the attack or the affected facilities. According to a statement from the Kuwait Port Authority, earlier that day, the Shuwaih Port in Kuwait was also attacked by drones, causing property damage but no casualties. The Al-Mubarak Port is located on the Bubiyan Island in the north of Kuwait and is an important strategic development project in the region.

摩根大通最新警告，随着中东紧张局势轮番升级，全球能源供应预期正急剧收紧。

JPMorgan Chase has issued a latest warning, stating that as tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate one after another, global energy supply is expected to be tightening sharply.

摩根大通警告称，过去四周霍尔木兹海峡石油运输中断将对全球供应造成“连锁”冲击，冲击将从东向西蔓延，到4月份世界大部分地区都将受到冲击，分析师在报告中指出，全球石油系统正“从供应冲击转向库存枯竭问题”。

JPMorgan Chase has warned that the disruption of oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz over the past four weeks will cause a "chain" effect on global supply, spreading from east to west, and by April, most parts of the world will be affected. The analysts pointed out in the report that the global oil system is "moving from a supply shock to an issue of depleted inventories".

分析师表示，影响因素并非仅仅是数量，而是时间节点，而航程时间就“决定了时间表”。摩根大通强调，市场将面临持续的供应中断，这种中断将“按顺序而非同时”发生——并向西蔓延，“受运输时间决定，且受区域库存不均衡的影响”。

The analysts stated that the influencing factors are not merely the quantity, but the timing of the events. The flight duration "determines the schedule". JPMorgan Chase emphasized that the market will face continuous supply disruptions, which will occur "sequentially rather than simultaneously" - spreading westward, "depending on transportation time and affected by regional inventory imbalances".

摩根大通还绘制了一张“时间表地图”，标明了即将到来的石油危机对全球主要地区的影响，以及潜在冲击的大致时间。根据该行的预测，这场潜在的原油危机将“按顺序”冲击世界各地——从亚洲开始，经非洲，至欧洲，最终波及美国，大部分地区将在4月集中承压。

JPMorgan Chase also drew up a "timeline map", indicating the impact of the impending oil crisis on major regions around the world, as well as the approximate timing of the potential shock. According to the bank's prediction, this potential crude oil crisis will "progress sequentially" across the world - starting in Asia, then moving through Africa, to Europe, and finally affecting the United States. Most regions will be under pressure in a concentrated manner in April.

具体而言，摩根大通分析师解释称，亚洲对波斯湾原油及石油产品的依赖程度极高，目前已“感受到压力”——霍尔木兹海峡实际关闭前发出的货物已基本耗尽。从波斯湾到亚洲的航运时间约为10至20天，印度最先受到影响，东北亚紧随其后。

Specifically, JPMorgan analysts explained that Asia has an extremely high dependence on Persian Gulf crude oil and petroleum products, and is currently "under pressure" - the goods dispatched before the actual closure of the Strait of Hormuz have largely been exhausted. The shipping time from the Persian Gulf to Asia is approximately 10 to 20 days. India was the first to be affected, followed by Northeast Asia.

援引数据指出，冲击猛烈程度将随时间快速攀升。该行预计，4月东南亚石油需求将下降约每日30万桶；若各国库存释放仅限于本国范围内，石油需求下降幅度可能会迅速攀升，5月份将超过200万桶/日，6月份将接近300万桶/日。

Data cited indicate that the intensity of the shock will rapidly increase over time. The bank predicts that in April, the demand for oil in Southeast Asia will drop by approximately 300,000 barrels per day; if the release of inventories by each country is limited to within their own borders, the decline in oil demand may rise rapidly, reaching over 2 million barrels per day in May and approaching 3 million barrels per day in June.

摩根大通提到，菲律宾政府本周已宣布进入国家能源紧急状态，并称中东冲突正对该国能源供应构成“迫在眉睫的危险”。

JPMorgan Chase mentioned that the Philippine government has declared a national energy emergency this week, and stated that the conflict in the Middle East is posing an "imminent danger" to the country's energy supply.

紧接着，摩根大通分析师表示，原油危机的下一个目标可能是非洲，其影响将在4月初更加明显。如果内陆库存较低，4月份石油需求可能减少高达每日25万桶。分析师进一步指出，到4月中旬，欧洲将感受到冲击，但“冲击更多是由成本上升和与亚洲的竞争造成的，而不是由直接短缺造成的”。

Subsequently, analysts from JPMorgan Chase stated that the next target of the crude oil crisis might be Africa, and its impact would become more evident in early April. If the inland inventories are low, the oil demand in April could decrease by up to 250,000 barrels per day. The analysts further pointed out that by mid-April, Europe would feel the impact, but "the impact is more caused by rising costs and competition with Asia, rather than by direct shortages."