受发运成本持续拉高及对后市行情的预期乐观，支撑着贸易商挺价心态。而终端用户对当前高价存在一定抵触情绪，但随着市场上低价货源持续减少，对价格的接受度亦在提高，接货价格被动上行。

The continuous rise in shipping costs and the optimistic expectations for the future market situation have supported the price-hiking mentality of traders. Meanwhile, end-users have some resistance to the current high prices. However, as the supply of low-priced goods in the market continues to decrease, their acceptance of prices is also increasing, leading to a passive rise in the purchase price.

环渤海港口市场呈现“高库存压制煤价，进口倒挂支撑底部”的总体特征。随着主产区复工复产提速、发运利润修复，大秦线等非检修线路基本处于满发状态，港口调入量明显回升，叠加封航影响，环渤海港口库存持续垒库，市场供需相对宽松。

The port market in the Bohai Rim region exhibits a general characteristic of "high inventory suppressing coal prices, and import prices being lower than domestic prices providing support for the bottom level". With the acceleration of the resumption of work and production in major production areas and the recovery of shipping profits, non-overhaul lines such as the Dalian-Qinhuangdao Line are basically operating at full capacity, and the inbound volume at ports has significantly increased. Coupled with the impact of port closures, the inventory at the Bohai Rim ports has continued to accumulate, and the market supply and demand situation is relatively relaxed.

但受进口不确定性与大秦线检修预期影响，终端增加船舶运力，拉运采购国内煤，增加优质现货的招标，用于优化库存结构。

However, due to the uncertainty of imports and the expected maintenance of the Daqin Line, the terminals have increased their shipping capacity, transported purchased domestic coal, and conducted tenders for high-quality spot supplies to optimize the inventory structure.

进口煤市场呈现“外盘扰动增加，价格倒挂，国内成交有限，有价少市”的特征。

The imported coal market exhibits the characteristics of "increased external market disturbances, price inversion, limited domestic transactions, and low demand with high prices".

首先，中东地区地缘冲突发酵，直接搅动国际能源供给格局，持续推高油、气价格，触发煤炭替代需求增加。

Firstly, the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have directly disrupted the international energy supply pattern, continuously driving up the prices of oil and gas, and triggering an increase in the demand for coal as a substitute.

其次，印尼多因素影响，造成供应收缩。三月份正值印尼斋月，煤矿生产与运输效率下降;而苏门答腊岛持续降雨，影响开采外运，及部分矿企因RKAB配额审批延迟原因，而被迫停产等待。

Secondly, multiple factors in Indonesia have led to a contraction in supply. In March, it was the month of Ramadan in Indonesia, and the production and transportation efficiency of coal mines declined; while continuous rainfall on the island of Sumatra affected mining and transportation, and some mining enterprises were forced to suspend production and wait due to the delayed approval of RKAB quotas.

此外，印尼国内燃煤电厂库存降至安全线下，该国要求优先保障国内需求，限制了出口规模。多重因素叠加，造成印尼煤炭实际产量与出口数量急剧减少，成为供应收紧的关键变量，支撑国际煤价高位运行。

Furthermore, the coal stockpiles at domestic coal-fired power plants in Indonesia have dropped below the safety level. The country has requested to prioritize domestic demand and has restricted the scale of exports. The combination of multiple factors has led to a significant reduction in both the actual production and export volume of coal in Indonesia. This has become a key variable contributing to the tightening of supply and has supported the high-level operation of international coal prices.

国内方面，传统旺季叠加化工品价格上涨，非电行业需求强劲;叠加特高压线路检修，清洁能源出力减弱，促使沿海八省电厂日耗一度拉高至210万吨。供应方面，国内煤矿生产供应稳定，环渤海港口存煤回升至2630万吨的相对高位，港口“蓄水池”作用明显。本周，受封航及船货衔接不畅等因素影响，港口处于小幅垒库过程中。

Domestically, the traditional peak season combined with the increase in chemical product prices have led to strong demand in non-electric industries. Additionally, the maintenance of ultra-high voltage transmission lines has reduced the output of clean energy, causing the daily consumption of power plants in the eight coastal provinces to rise to 2.1 million tons at one point. On the supply side, domestic coal mine production and supply have remained stable. The coal reserves in the Bohai Rim ports have rebounded to a relatively high level of 263 million tons, demonstrating a significant role as a "storage reservoir" at the ports. This week, due to factors such as vessel navigation restrictions and difficulties in ship cargo connection, ports were in a process of slightly accumulating inventory.

综合分析，地缘冲突与进口煤的不稳定性、电厂日耗再度拉高等共同构筑了煤价的底部支撑，叠加终端对远期不确定性的担忧及大秦线春检等影响预期，煤炭市场定价核心已从前期的供需关系变化转化为对未来预期的博弈。

Overall analysis shows that the geopolitical conflicts, the instability of imported coal, the continuous increase in daily power plant consumption, and other factors have jointly formed the bottom support for coal prices. Coupled with the concerns of the end-users regarding the uncertainty of the future and the expected impacts such as the spring inspection of the Daqin Line, the core of coal market pricing has shifted from the changes in supply and demand relations in the early stage to the game of expectations for the future.

综合分析，受国际局势影响，今春内贸煤市场呈现“淡季不淡”特征，但终端采购积极性及补库迫切性均不高，预计未来一周，煤价呈缓慢上涨态势;而贸易商对于市场的预期，使得投机买卖和囤货待涨现象增多，导致出现脱离供需实际的“非理性泡沫式上涨”。

Overall analysis shows that due to the international situation, the domestic coal market this spring has shown a "weak season but not a slack season" characteristic. However, the enthusiasm for terminal purchases and the urgency for replenishment are not high. It is expected that in the coming week, the coal price will show a slow upward trend. Meanwhile, the expectations of traders for the market have led to an increase in speculative trading and hoarding of coal for future price hikes, resulting in an "irrational bubble-like upward trend" that deviates from the actual supply and demand situation.