天然气：能源转型中的“黄金支点”

Natural Gas: The "Golden Pivot Point" in Energy Transformation

在全球能源结构转型进程中，天然气展现出不可替代的战略价值。从全球视角看，尽管可再生能源快速发展，但化石能源仍占全球能源消费的80％。其中，天然气是唯一实现增长的化石能源品种，占比从2015年的22％提升至2025年的25％。

During the process of global energy structure transformation, natural gas demonstrates an irreplaceable strategic value. From a global perspective, although renewable energy has been developing rapidly, fossil energy still accounts for 80% of global energy consumption. Among them, natural gas is the only fossil energy type that has achieved growth, with its share increasing from 22% in 2015 to 25% in 2025.

在我国，能源结构清洁化转型成效显著，煤炭占比从64％降至52％，天然气占比则从6％提升至9％，成为仅次于煤炭、石油的第三大能源品种。

In China, the transformation of the energy structure towards greater cleanliness has achieved remarkable results. The proportion of coal has decreased from 64% to 52%, while the proportion of natural gas has increased from 6% to 9%, making it the third-largest energy type after coal and oil.

天然气在低碳发展中的多重优势进一步巩固了其重要地位。在城市供暖领域，天然气使用可减少50％至55％的碳排放；在发电领域，相比燃煤电厂，天然气发电可降低40％的碳排放；在交通领域，天然气重卡和海事运输船可减少20％的碳排放。

The multiple advantages of natural gas in the context of low-carbon development have further solidified its significant position. In the field of urban heating, the use of natural gas can reduce carbon emissions by 50% to 55%; in the power generation sector, compared to coal-fired power plants, natural gas power generation can reduce carbon emissions by 40%; in the transportation sector, natural gas heavy trucks and maritime transport vessels can reduce carbon emissions by 20%.

更重要的是，天然气为电网提供了关键的灵活性支撑。面对风电、光电的波动性挑战——极端情况下瞬时出力可能下降30％至60％，天然气发电可快速响应，保障电力稳定供应。在长时储能技术成熟前，气电是支撑高比例可再生能源消纳的必然选择。

More importantly, natural gas provides crucial flexibility support for the power grid. In the face of the volatility of wind power and photovoltaic power - in extreme cases, the instantaneous output may drop by 30% to 60% - natural gas power generation can respond quickly, ensuring stable power supply. Before long-term energy storage technologies mature, gas power generation is an inevitable choice for supporting the consumption of a high proportion of renewable energy.

LNG：全球市场扩张的“加速度引擎”

LNG: The "Acceleration Engine" for Global Market Expansion

LNG作为天然气贸易的主要形式，正以惊人的速度推动全球市场扩张。数据显示，全球天然气消费量从2015年的3．5万亿立方米增长至2025年的4．3万亿立方米，贸易量从1．04万亿立方米增至1．27万亿立方米。其中，LNG在贸易中的占比从30％跃升至46％，成为增长最快的能源品种。

LNG, as the main form of natural gas trade, is driving the expansion of the global market at an astonishing rate. According to the data, global natural gas consumption has increased from 3.5 trillion cubic meters in 2015 to 4.3 trillion cubic meters in 2025, while the trade volume has risen from 1.04 trillion cubic meters to 1.27 trillion cubic meters. Among them, the proportion of LNG in trade has jumped from 30% to 46%, becoming the fastest-growing energy type.

供应端呈现多元化趋势。全球LNG出口国从“4大洲17个国家”增至“5大洲23个国家”。美国凭借页岩气革命强势崛起，2025年占全球出口量的25％，与卡塔尔、澳大利亚形成“三足鼎立”格局。进口市场同步扩大，全球LNG进口国从32个增至49个，中国从第三大进口国变为首位，日本、韩国紧随其后。

The supply side is showing a diversified trend. The global LNG exporting countries have expanded from "17 countries across 4 continents" to "23 countries across 5 continents". With the shale gas revolution, the United States has risen strongly and is expected to account for 25% of global exports in 2025, forming a "triumvirate" with Qatar and Australia. The import market has also expanded simultaneously, with the number of global LNG importers increasing from 32 to 49. China has risen from the third-largest importer to the top position, followed by Japan and South Korea.

基础设施建设进入“加速期”。预计到2030年，全球LNG出口终端将从50个增至70个以上，接收站将从200座增至270座，运输船从700艘增至1000艘。这些数字背后，是一波又一波的投资浪潮，彰显全球对LNG市场的坚定信心。

Infrastructure construction is entering an "accelerated period". It is expected that by 2030, the number of global LNG export terminals will increase from 50 to over 70, the number of receiving stations will rise from 200 to 270, and the number of transport ships will increase from 700 to 1,000. Behind these figures is a wave after wave of investment, demonstrating the global firm confidence in the LNG market.

中国机遇：构建天然气战略版图

China's Opportunity: Building the Strategic Map of Natural Gas

中国作为全球最大的LNG进口国，正迎来前所未有的战略机遇期。

As the world's largest importer of LNG, China is currently experiencing an unprecedented period of strategic opportunities.

从供应端看，全球LNG供应充足，供大于求态势明显，许多项目将中国市场作为核心目标。有关资料显示，国内方面，“十五五”期间，国内天然气年产量有望突破3100亿立方米，形成“内外双循环”的供应格局。

From the supply side, global LNG supply is abundant and the situation of supply exceeding demand is obvious. Many projects have China as their core target market. Relevant data shows that domestically, during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the annual domestic natural gas production is expected to exceed 310 billion cubic meters, forming a supply pattern of "domestic and international dual circulation".

接收站建设加速推进，总接收能力从1．6亿吨/年提升至2亿吨/年以上，为进口增长提供硬件支撑。

The construction of receiving stations is accelerating, and the total receiving capacity has increased from 160 million tons per year to over 200 million tons per year, providing hardware support for the growth of imports.

市场需求呈现多元化增长。在工业领域，长三角等地区“煤改气”空间巨大，天然气在发电、采暖、工业燃料等领域替代煤炭的进程加速。在发电领域，我国天然气发电占比仅为3．2％，远低于发达国家20％至30％的水平。

The market demand is showing diversified growth. In the industrial sector, there is a huge potential for "coal-to-gas" transformation in regions such as the Yangtze River Delta. The process of replacing coal with natural gas in areas such as power generation, heating, and industrial fuel is accelerating. In the power generation sector, the proportion of natural gas power generation in China is only 3.2%, much lower than the levels of 20% to 30% in developed countries.

“十五五”期间可大规模发展气电，以满足数据中心、智能制造等新兴产业的用电需求。在交通领域，LNG重卡、船舶的推广将开辟新的增长极。

During the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, gas power generation can be developed on a large scale to meet the electricity demands of emerging industries such as data centers and smart manufacturing. In the transportation sector, the promotion of LNG-powered heavy-duty trucks and vessels will create new growth drivers.

战略储备体系建设迫在眉睫。面对复杂的地缘政治环境，中国需通过战略储备保障用气安全与电网安全。与会专家建议，应借鉴国际经验，建立“政府＋企业”协同的储备机制，提升应急调峰能力。

The construction of strategic reserve systems is of utmost urgency. In the face of a complex geopolitical environment, China needs to ensure gas supply security and power grid security through strategic reserves. Experts present at the meeting suggested that we should draw on international experience and establish a "government + enterprise" collaborative reserve mechanism to enhance the emergency peak-shaving capacity.

未来展望：价格回归与供需平衡

Future Outlook: Price Reversion and Supply-Demand Balance

长期来看，LNG价格将呈现“短期波动、中期下移、长期平衡”的趋势。受地缘政治影响，近期全球能源价格大幅上涨，但从长期看将回归理性。

In the long term, the price of LNG will follow a pattern of "short-term fluctuations, medium-term decline, and long-term stability". Affected by geopolitical factors, global energy prices have risen significantly recently, but in the long run, they will return to rationality.

2027年至2030年，随着新增产能集中释放，市场将进入买方主导阶段，价格将逐步下移。最终，定价机制将贴近成本，实现供需再平衡。

From 2027 to 2030, as the newly added production capacity is released in a concentrated manner, the market will enter a stage dominated by buyers, and the prices will gradually decline. Eventually, the pricing mechanism will be closer to the cost, achieving a new balance between supply and demand.

在应用领域，天然气将深度赋能工业、建筑、航运等行业的清洁化转型进程。特别是在数据中心、氢能生产等新兴领域，天然气作为“过渡能源”与“支撑能源”的双重角色将愈发凸显。

In the application field, natural gas will significantly enhance the clean transformation process of industries such as industry, construction, and shipping. Particularly in emerging fields like data centers and hydrogen production, the dual roles of natural gas as a "transition energy" and "supporting energy" will become increasingly prominent.

亚洲是全球增长引擎。在这一地区，印度计划将天然气占比从6．2％提升至15％，东南亚国家已从天然气出口国转变为净进口国，区域市场潜力巨大。

Asia is the global growth engine. In this region, India plans to increase the proportion of natural gas from 6.2% to 15%. Southeast Asian countries have transformed from natural gas exporters to net importers, and the regional market potential is enormous.

面对未来，我国需抓住机遇，加强基础设施建设，扩大市场需求，完善战略储备，以应对复杂多变的国际环境。

Looking to the future, our country needs to seize the opportunities, strengthen infrastructure construction, expand market demand, and improve strategic reserves in order to cope with the complex and ever-changing international environment.

第六届中国液化天然气大会，正是我国向世界传递坚定信号的重要平台——在能源转型的赛道上，我国将以LNG为抓手，构建安全、清洁、高效的能源体系，为全球能源治理贡献中国智慧与中国方案。

The 6th China LNG Conference is an important platform for China to convey a firm message to the world - on the energy transformation track, China will take LNG as the focus to build a safe, clean and efficient energy system, and contribute China's wisdom and solutions to global energy governance.