万亿级市场放开,油气行业或迎巨变
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摘要:万亿级市场放开,油气行业或迎巨变

关键词:油气 万亿级市场
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近日,国家发展改革委、国家能源局正式印发《石油天然气发展“十五五”规划》(发改能源〔2026〕1055号,简称《规划》)明确提出,到2030年逐步建设形成“自主保障能力持续增强、管网输配高效衔接、储备调节充足灵活、生产方式绿色低碳、运行安全平稳高效、加工利用高端高质、科技水平自主突破、国际合作灵活多元”的现代油气产业体系,为建设能源强国、构建新型能源体系提供坚实支撑。

Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration officially issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for the Development of Petroleum and Natural Gas" (Document No. 1055 of 2026 issued by the National Development and Reform Commission, abbreviated as "The Plan"), clearly stating that by 2030, a modern oil and gas industry system will be gradually established, featuring "continuous enhancement of independent guarantee capabilities, efficient connection of pipeline transportation and distribution, sufficient and flexible reserve and regulation, green and low-carbon production methods, safe and stable efficient operation, high-end and high-quality processing and utilization, independent breakthroughs in technological levels, and flexible and diverse international cooperation". This will provide solid support for building an energy power and constructing a new energy system.


01.锚定发展目标稳中提质

01. Set clear development goals and ensure steady improvement


“十五五”时期,是我国基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键阶段,也是油气行业转型升级的窗口期。《规划》以“四个革命、一个合作”能源安全新战略为指引,提出要推动石油消费达峰,实现“五个持续提升”,覆盖能源安全保障、国际合作、绿色低碳转型、科技创新、市场活力五大维度。

During the "14th-15th Five-Year Plan" period, it is a crucial stage for China to lay a solid foundation and make comprehensive efforts to basically achieve socialist modernization. It is also a window period for the transformation and upgrading of the oil and gas industry. The "Plan" is guided by the new energy security strategy of "Four Revolutions and One Cooperation", and proposes to promote the peak of oil consumption and achieve "five continuous enhancements", covering five dimensions: energy security guarantee, international cooperation, green and low-carbon transformation, scientific and technological innovation, and market vitality.


《规划》明确提出到2030年,国内油气供应量达到4.4亿吨油当量;“十五五”期间新增油气长输管道2万公里,全国油气长输管网总规模达到22万公里;天然气储备占全国消费比重超过13%;液化天然气接收站接卸能力提升至2亿吨/年,陆上管道进口天然气能力达到1140亿立方米每年;CCS/CCUS年注入二氧化碳规模达到1000万吨。整套指标既看重油气供给总量,也兼顾管网、储备、碳减排配套能力建设,体现安全保供与绿色转型协同推进的思路。

The "Plan" clearly states that by 2030, the domestic oil and gas supply will reach 440 million tons of oil equivalent; during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, 20,000 kilometers of long-distance oil and gas pipelines will be added, and the total length of the national long-distance oil and gas pipeline network will reach 220,000 kilometers; the proportion of natural gas reserves in national consumption will exceed 13%; the unloading capacity of liquefied natural gas receiving stations will be increased to 200 million tons per year, and the import capacity of natural gas through onshore pipelines will reach 114 billion cubic meters per year; the annual injection scale of carbon dioxide through CCS/CCUS will reach 10 million tons. These indicators not only focus on the total supply of oil and gas but also take into account the construction of pipelines, reserves, and supporting capabilities for carbon reduction, reflecting the idea of promoting safety guarantee and green transformation in a coordinated manner.


按照《规划》构想,到2030年建成的现代油气产业体系,将实现自主保障能力增强、管网高效衔接、储备调节灵活、生产模式低碳、运行安全高效、加工利用高质、技术自主突破、国际合作多元的综合发展格局。

According to the plan, by 2030, the modern oil and gas industry system to be established will achieve a comprehensive development pattern featuring enhanced self-sufficiency capabilities, efficient pipeline connections, flexible reserve and regulation, low-carbon production models, safe and efficient operation, high-quality processing and utilization, technological breakthroughs independently achieved, and diversified international cooperation.


02.夯实自主供给底盘

02. Strengthen the foundation of self-supply


夯实国内自主供给,是维护油气安全的“压舱石”。《规划》明确勘探布局,兼顾东部老区精细挖潜、中西部与海域集中勘探、新区新领域风险勘探,要求石油储量接替率保持在1以上,天然气储量接替率力争更高。

Strengthening domestic self-supply is the "ballast stone" for maintaining oil and gas security. The "Plan" clearly outlines the exploration layout, taking into account the detailed exploitation of old oil fields in the east, concentrated exploration in the central and western regions as well as in the sea areas, and risk exploration in new areas and new fields. It requires that the reserve replacement rate of oil remain above 1, and the reserve replacement rate of natural gas be as high as possible.


勘探工作重点投向鄂尔多斯(13.890, 0.00, 0.00%)、渤海湾、四川、塔里木、松辽、准噶尔等重点盆地,深耕深层超深层碳酸盐岩,大力推进页岩油、页岩气、深层煤层气等非常规油气资源增储。海域板块聚焦渤海、东海、南海,主攻潜山、深水深层等勘探方向,拓宽资源发现空间。

The exploration efforts are mainly concentrated in key basins such as Ordos (13.890, 0.00, 0.00%), Bohai Bay, Sichuan, Tarim, Songliao, and Qargalai. They focus on deep and ultra-deep carbonate rocks and vigorously promote the increase in reserves of unconventional oil and gas resources such as shale oil, shale gas, and deep coalbed methane. The marine sector focuses on the Bohai Sea, East China Sea, and South China Sea, concentrating on exploration directions such as anticlines and deep-water and ultra-deepwater areas, to expand the space for resource discovery.


生产端,原油力求稳中有升,天然气持续上产。一方面实施老油气田压舱石工程,保障大庆、胜利等老牌油田长期稳产;另一方面攻坚深层超深层油气效益开发,推动页岩油、页岩气规模建产,实施海洋油气再提升工程,推动海洋油气产量当量迈向亿吨级,巴彦、吉兰泰等新油田加快释放产能。

At the production end, crude oil aims to maintain stability while increasing gradually, and natural gas continues to increase production. On one hand, the "anchor stone project" for old oil and gas fields is implemented to ensure long-term stable production in well-known oil fields such as Daqing and Shengli; on the other hand, efforts are made to develop deep and ultra-deep oil and gas resources efficiently, promote the large-scale production of shale oil and shale gas, implement the offshore oil and gas enhancement project, and push the equivalent output of offshore oil and gas to reach the billion-ton level. The new oil fields such as Bayan and Jilantai accelerate the release of production capacity.


《规划》划定了鄂尔多斯、渤海湾、川渝、塔里木、松辽、准噶尔、柴达木盆地、南海北部等八大油气战略保障基地,扛起国内油气产量的主体支撑责任。其中,鄂尔多斯盆地重点推动华庆、姬塬、庆城等原油产能项目和苏里格、靖边等天然气产能项目建设;川渝地区常规气推动安岳、蓬莱等气田产能建设,页岩气加快泸州、渝西等产能项目建设。

The "Plan" has designated eight major oil and gas strategic guarantee bases, namely the Ordos Basin, Bohai Bay Basin, Sichuan-Chongqing Basin, Tarim Basin, Songliao Basin, Qargalai Basin, Qaidam Basin, and the northern part of the South China Sea. These bases undertake the main responsibility of supporting domestic oil and gas production. Among them, the Ordos Basin focuses on promoting the construction of crude oil production capacity projects such as Huacun, Jiuyuan, and Qingcheng, as well as the construction of natural gas production capacity projects such as Suili and Jingbian; in the Sichuan-Chongqing region, conventional gas production capacity projects such as Anyue and Penglai are being promoted, while shale gas production capacity projects such as Luzhou and Yuxi are being accelerated.


从2026年的实际情况看,国内油气生产保持良好势头。国家统计局数据显示,1至7月份,规上工业原油产量12769万吨,同比增长0.9%;1至7月份,规上工业天然气产量1543亿立方米,同比增长1.2%。

From the actual situation in 2026, domestic oil and gas production maintained a good momentum. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to July, the output of crude oil by large-scale industrial enterprises was 127.69 million tons, increasing by 0.9% year-on-year; from January to July, the output of natural gas by large-scale industrial enterprises was 154.3 billion cubic meters, increasing by 1.2% year-on-year.


勘探方面同样收获颇丰。2026年5月,中国石化(5.450, 0.00, 0.00%)对外公布,西南油气分公司提交的四川资阳东峰页岩气田2356.87亿立方米探明地质储量通过自然资源部专家组审定,标志着中国超深层千亿方级页岩气田诞生,成功将页岩气勘探开发推进至埋深超4500米的超深层新领域。7月,延长石油集团宣布,在鄂尔多斯盆地的延东煤层气田探明地质储量达537亿立方米,相关储量通过自然资源部评审备案。

The exploration efforts also yielded significant results. In May 2026, Sinopec announced that the 235.687 billion cubic meters of proven geological reserves of the Dongfeng Shale Gas Field in Ziyang, Sichuan Province, submitted by the Southwest Oil and Gas Branch Company, had been approved by the expert group of the Ministry of Natural Resources. This marked the birth of a super-deep shale gas field with over 100 billion cubic meters in China, successfully advancing shale gas exploration and development to a new ultra-deep area with a burial depth of over 4,500 meters. In July, Yanchang Oilfield Group announced that the proven geological reserves of the Yan Dong Coalbed Methane Field in the Ordos Basin reached 5.37 billion cubic meters, and the relevant reserves were reviewed and filed by the Ministry of Natural Resources.


03.“全国一张网”加速成型

03. "The National Network" is taking shape rapidly


油气基础设施是资源调配的大动脉。《规划》提出构建“适度超前、经济高效、区域均衡、互联互通、绿色低碳、安全稳定”的“全国一张网”。到2030年全国管网规模达22万公里。

Oil and gas infrastructure serves as the main artery for resource distribution. The "Plan" proposes to build a "national network" that is "moderately advanced, economically efficient, regionally balanced, interconnected, green and low-carbon, safe and stable". By 2030, the total length of the national pipeline network will reach 220,000 kilometers.


骨干通道建设方面,将建成黑河—大庆—长岭、虎林—长春—石家庄、川气东送二线等重大工程,构建中部“十字形”骨干通道;适时启动建设西气东输四线(乌恰—吐鲁番段)、西气东输五线,谋划川气南下新通道,研究论证钦州至重庆原油管道,进一步完善国家战略通道网络。

In terms of the construction of backbone channels, major projects such as the Heihe-Daqing-Changling line, Hulín-Changchun-Shijiazhuang line, and the Second Eastward Gas Transmission Line from Sichuan Province will be completed, forming a "cross-shaped" backbone channel in the central region. We will promptly start the construction of the Fourth West-East Gas Transmission Line (Uchaqia-Turpan section) and the Fifth West-East Gas Transmission Line, plan a new channel for the southward transportation of gas from Sichuan Province, and study and deliberate on the crude oil pipeline from Qinzhou to Chongqing. This will further improve the national strategic channel network.


2026年多个重大项目取得关键进展。“十五五”重点项目川气东送二线加速推进,隧道穿越与线路焊接同步建设,全年计划焊接1000公里。目前,虎林—长春管道沿线9座站场已完成主要建设,项目综合进度超90%,预计2026年底全线建成投产。

In 2026, several major projects made significant progress. The "15th Five-Year Plan" key project, the Second West-to-East Gas Pipeline, is advancing rapidly. Tunnel construction and line welding are carried out simultaneously. The annual plan is to weld 1,000 kilometers. Currently, the 9 station sites along the Hulín - Changchun pipeline have completed the main construction, and the project's overall progress exceeds 90%. It is expected that the entire pipeline will be completed and put into operation by the end of 2026.


2026年8月26日,国家石油天然气发展“十五五”规划项目黑河—大庆天然气管道工程在黑龙江省孙吴县正式开工。管道全长578.3公里,设计压力12兆帕。该项目与规划建设的大庆—长岭天然气管道联通,投产后与“北气南下”能源大通道联合运行,形成“北气南下”双通道格局,推动“北气南下”系统年输气能力由380亿立方米提升至480亿立方米,有效提升东北能源通道资源调配与输送能力,完善东北天然气管网布局,带动沿线清洁能源利用和产业升级。

On August 26, 2026, the "15th Five-Year Plan" project for the development of national oil and gas, the Heihe-Daqing natural gas pipeline project, officially started in Sunwu County, Heilongjiang Province. The pipeline is 578.3 kilometers long and has a design pressure of 12 megapascals. This project is connected with the planned Daqing-Changling natural gas pipeline. After its commissioning, it will operate in conjunction with the "Northward Gas Southward" energy transportation channel, forming a "Northward Gas Southward" dual-channel pattern. This will enhance the annual gas transmission capacity of the "Northward Gas Southward" system from 38 billion cubic meters to 48 billion cubic meters, effectively improving the resource allocation and transportation capacity of the energy channels in Northeast China, perfecting the layout of the natural gas pipeline network in Northeast China, and driving the utilization of clean energy and industrial upgrading along the route.


此外,《规划》还点名抚锦线、锦郑线、兰郑长线、乌兰线等管道推进甲醇管道输送试点。2026年7月13日,国家管网集团在甘肃至陕西约200公里长的在役成品油管道上,完成国内首次1000立方米甲醇顺序输送现场试验,混油率控制在0.8%以内。

In addition, the "Plan" also specifically designated the Fu-Jin Line, Jin-Zheng Line, Lan-Zheng-Chang Line, and Wulan Line among others as the pipelines for conducting the pilot project of transporting methanol. On July 13, 2026, the National Pipeline Group completed the first domestic on-site trial of sequential transportation of 1,000 cubic meters of methanol on an in-service refined oil pipeline approximately 200 kilometers long from Gansu to Shaanxi, with the mixed oil rate controlled within 0.8%.


04.绿色转型全面提速

04. Green transformation is accelerating at an all-new pace


此次《规划》把绿色低碳贯穿油气产业全链条,明确推动石油消费达峰,统筹能源安全和“双碳”目标。石油领域推进生产环节节能降碳,提升终端电气化水平,做好甲烷、挥发性有机物减排;炼油产业执行减量置换,推进“油转化”“油转特”“油转材”,淘汰落后产能,沿海打造炼化一体化集群,中西部立足本地需求发展石化产业,支持有特色、有竞争力的中小型炼厂走“专精特新”发展道路。

This "Plan" integrates green and low-carbon concepts throughout the entire oil and gas industry chain, clearly aiming to peak oil consumption and coordinating energy security with the "carbon neutrality" goal. In the oil sector, efforts are made to enhance energy efficiency and reduce carbon emissions in production processes, increase the level of terminal electrification, and implement methane and volatile organic compound reduction measures. The refining industry implements reduction quotas and promotes "oil-to-chemicals", "oil-to-specialty products", and "oil-to-materials" transformations, eliminating outdated capacity. Coastal areas will establish integrated refining clusters, while the central and western regions will develop petrochemical industries based on local demands. Support will be given to small and medium-sized refineries with unique features and competitiveness to pursue a "specialized, innovative, and distinctive" development path.


《规划》鼓励天然气利用有序高效发展,重点保障难以电气化、高排放企业的工业用气需求;拓展LNG在重卡、水运船舶应用;合理布局调峰气电项目,发挥天然气对新型电力系统的支撑,推进气电与新能源联营模式。

The "Plan" encourages the orderly and efficient development of natural gas utilization, with a focus on ensuring the industrial gas demands of enterprises that are difficult to electrify and have high emissions; expanding the application of LNG in heavy trucks and water transport vessels; reasonably planning peak-shaving gas power generation projects to support the new power system with natural gas, and promoting the joint operation model of gas power and new energy.


多能融合成为油气矿区发展新方向。《规划》提出依托油气矿区土地资源开发风电、光伏、地热,打造零碳油气田,推动油气热同采、源网荷储一体化,把传统油气田拓展成为兼顾发电、供热、储能、碳封存的综合能源基地。同时依规开发油气矿床伴生的氦气、锂、铀等资源,实现伴生资源综合利用。

Multifunctional integration has become a new direction for the development of oil and gas mining areas. The "Plan" proposes to leverage the land resources of oil and gas mining areas to develop wind power, photovoltaic power, and geothermal energy, creating zero-carbon oil and gas fields, promoting the simultaneous extraction of oil and heat, and the integration of power generation, grid, load, and storage, transforming traditional oil and gas fields into comprehensive energy bases that also provide power generation, heating, energy storage, and carbon sequestration. At the same time, it is planned to develop helium, lithium, uranium and other resources associated with oil and gas deposits in accordance with regulations, achieving the comprehensive utilization of associated resources.


CCUS也是《规划》的一大亮点。《规划》提出发挥CCUS全产业链优势,统筹原油增产与碳减排“双赢”,支持东营、榆林等油气产业聚集城市率先向低碳城市转型。2026年以来,多个CCUS项目加速落地,4月11日,中国海油(33.430, 0.00, 0.00%)宣布,国内首个海上注碳增气技术示范应用项目,东方1-1气田二氧化碳捕集封存利用项目正在推进中,全面投产后预计每年最多可在地层封存超100万吨二氧化碳;6月12日,延长石油百万吨全流程一体化CCUS项目在陕西榆林靖边工业园区正式开工。截至目前,长庆油田已在14个区块推进CCUS试验与工业化应用,建成年注入能力70万吨的工程体系,累计注入二氧化碳120万吨以上。此外,《规划》还提出充分利用枯竭油气藏、盐穴和管道等地下空间资源,探索建设压缩空气储能等新业态。

CCUS is also a major highlight of the "Plan". The "Plan" proposes to leverage the advantages of the entire CCUS industrial chain, coordinate the increase in crude oil production and carbon emission reduction for a "win-win" situation, and support oil and gas industry clusters such as Dongying and Yulin to transform into low-carbon cities first. Since 2026, multiple CCUS projects have been accelerating their implementation. On April 11, China National Offshore Oil Corporation (33.430, 0.00, 0.00%) announced that the domestic first offshore carbon injection and gas production enhancement technology demonstration application project, the Eastern 1-1 gas field carbon dioxide capture, storage and utilization project, is currently in progress. After full operation, it is expected to store up to over 1 million tons of carbon dioxide in the strata annually. On June 12, the 1 million-ton integrated CCUS project of Yanchang Oilfield was officially started in the Yimeng Industrial Park of Yulin, Shaanxi Province. As of now, the Changqing Oilfield has been conducting CCUS experiments and industrial applications in 14 blocks, and has established an engineering system with an annual injection capacity of 700,000 tons, with a cumulative injection of over 1.2 million tons of carbon dioxide. In addition, the "Plan" also proposes to make full use of underground space resources such as depleted oil and gas reservoirs, salt caverns and pipelines, and explore the construction of new business models such as compressed air energy storage.


05.持续深化油气体制改革

05. Continuously deepen the reform of the oil and gas industry


面对深层深水、非常规油气开发难题,《规划》明确技术攻关方向,聚焦“两深一非一老”,也就是陆上深层、海洋深水、非常规油气、老油田挖潜。装备研发瞄准万米智能钻机、3000米级深水海洋开采装备、大功率电驱压裂橇等重大设备,补齐核心软件短板,提升装备国产化水平。

In the face of challenges in deepwater and unconventional oil and gas development, the "Plan" has clearly defined the direction for technological research and development, focusing on "two deep, one unconventional and one old", namely onshore deepwater areas, deepwater in the ocean, unconventional oil and gas resources, and the potential tapping of old oil fields. Equipment research and development is targeting major equipment such as 10,000-meter intelligent drilling rigs, 3,000-meter deepwater offshore extraction equipment, and large-power electric-driven fracturing skids. It aims to fill the gap in core software and enhance the domestic production rate of equipment.


数智化转型方面,推进“人工智能+油气”产业生态落地。智慧油气田、智慧管网建设持续推进,勘探目标智能识别、钻井压裂智能调参、管网预测性维护等投入实际应用。页岩油气开发、老油田挖潜借助智能技术提升采收效率;炼化领域探索石化行业大模型,打造可复制数字化案例。同时加快补齐新兴领域标准,针对CCUS、管道掺氢、枯竭藏储氢储能、人工智能油气应用等新场景,加快建立技术规范体系。

In terms of digital transformation, efforts are being made to implement the "artificial intelligence + oil and gas" industrial ecosystem. The construction of smart oil and gas fields and smart pipelines is ongoing, and technologies such as intelligent identification of exploration targets, intelligent adjustment of drilling and fracturing parameters, and predictive maintenance of pipelines have been put into practical use. The development of shale oil and gas and the exploration of potential in old oil fields have enhanced production efficiency through intelligent technologies; in the refining and chemical industry, efforts are being made to explore large-scale models for the petrochemical sector and create replicable digital cases. At the same time, efforts are being accelerated to fill the gaps in standards for emerging fields, including CCUS, hydrogen blending in pipelines, hydrogen storage and energy storage in depleted reservoirs, and the application of artificial intelligence in oil and gas. For new scenarios such as these, a technical specification system is being established promptly.


《规划》提出继续完善“X+1+X”油气市场体系。上游拓宽矿业权出让,加大勘查区块投放,完善地质资料共享,搞活油服市场。基础设施层面,支持社会资本参与非战略性管道、储备库建设,推动管网设施公平开放,引导省级管网市场化融入国家管网,落实大用户直供。

The "Plan" proposes to further improve the "X + 1 + X" oil and gas market system. In the upstream sector, expand the granting of mining rights, increase the allocation of exploration blocks, improve the sharing of geological data, and invigorate the oil service market. At the infrastructure level, support private capital to participate in the construction of non-strategic pipelines and reserve warehouses, promote the fair opening of pipeline facilities, guide the marketization of provincial-level pipelines to integrate into the national pipeline system, and implement direct supply to large users.


市场机制上推动上游供气主体多元化,规范城镇燃气经营,落实天然气上下游价格联动机制,完善储气调峰市场规则,守住民生用气底线。行业治理层面完善法律法规,健全碳排放统计核算、碳足迹管理,强化管道保护、反垄断监管,优化行业营商环境,激发各类市场主体活力。

The market mechanism will promote the diversification of upstream gas suppliers, regulate urban gas operations, implement the price linkage mechanism for the upstream and downstream of natural gas, improve the market rules for gas storage and peak regulation, and ensure the bottom line for domestic gas usage. At the industry governance level, laws and regulations will be improved, carbon emission statistics and accounting, carbon footprint management will be enhanced, pipeline protection and anti-monopoly supervision will be strengthened, the industry's business environment will be optimized, and the vitality of all market entities will be stimulated.


在保障措施上,现有页岩油气、储气库垫底气、进口增值税先征后返、资源税等政策持续落地,统筹国土空间管控,保障重大项目要素供给。国家层面统筹、多部门协同、地方和企业落实的工作机制,配套中期评估、动态调整,保障《规划》落地实施。

In terms of safeguard measures, existing policies such as shale oil and gas, gas storage reservoir pressure reserve, import value-added tax pre-collection and post-refund, and resource tax have been continuously implemented. The national-level coordination, multi-departmental collaboration, and local and enterprise implementation mechanism have been established, along with mid-term assessment and dynamic adjustment to ensure the implementation of the "Plan".


行业分析人士表示,《规划》既兼顾了安全保供和低碳转型,还清晰刻画出未来五年油气行业发展路径,既守住国家能源安全底线,也为传统化石能源产业向新型综合能源产业转型指明了方向,将有力支撑中国新型能源体系建设稳步向前。

Industry analysts stated that the "Plan" not only takes into account both safety supply and low-carbon transformation, but also clearly delineates the development path for the oil and gas industry in the next five years. It not only upholds the national energy security bottom line but also points out the direction for the transformation of traditional fossil energy industries into new comprehensive energy industries, and will strongly support the steady progress of China's new energy system construction.


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