美国方面14日宣布与伊朗达成停战谅解备忘录，正式签字仪式将于19日在瑞士举行，相关消息得到伊朗确认。数月以来，中东局势持续紧张导致霍尔木兹海峡航运受阻，国际油价、化肥价格一度上涨。

On the 14th, the US announced that it had reached a ceasefire memorandum with Iran. The official signing ceremony will be held in Switzerland on the 19th. The relevant news has been confirmed by Iran. For several months, the tense situation in the Middle East has led to the obstruction of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, causing international oil prices and fertilizer prices to rise temporarily.

随着美伊达成协议，市场对地区局势缓和的预期升温。霍尔木兹海峡何时才能真正恢复正常通行？国际油价是否将进一步回落？化肥供应紧张局面能否缓解并带动食品价格降温？这些问题正受到广泛关注。

With the US and Iran reaching an agreement, expectations for the easing of the regional situation have risen. When will the Strait of Hormuz truly resume normal traffic? Will international oil prices fall further? Can the tight supply of fertilizers be alleviated and lead to a drop in food prices? These issues are receiving widespread attention.

海峡何时能重开？

When will the strait be reopened?

“让石油流动起来！”美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上发文宣布达成协议时表示，协议将包括重新开放海峡供商业航运使用。

"Let the oil flow!" US President Trump wrote on social media when announcing the agreement, stating that the agreement would include reopening the strait for commercial shipping.

但据英国广播公司(BBC)报道，该机构旗下的事实核查台BBC Verify核查了船舶跟踪数据，数据显示，尽管美伊双方达成了协议，但是，霍尔木兹海峡的航运流量仍然很低。

However, as reported by the BBC, the fact-checking unit of the BBC, BBC Verify, examined the vessel tracking data. The data showed that, despite the agreement reached between the United States and Iran, the shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remained very low.

BBC援引船舶追踪网站MarineTraffic数据称，自14日以来，只有两艘装有定位追踪器的船舶离开了该水道。

The BBC, citing data from the maritime tracking website MarineTraffic, stated that since the 14th, only two ships equipped with positioning trackers have left the waterway.

英国经济研究机构凯投宏观集团首席经济学家尼尔·谢林指出，最新达成的协议“究竟是脆弱的休战还是持久的解决方案”仍有待观察。他还补充说，“通过海峡的石油运输量可能需要一段时间才能恢复到战前水平”。

Neil Shearing, the chief economist of Capital Economics, a British economic research institution, pointed out that it remains to be seen whether the latest agreement represents a fragile truce or a lasting solution. He also added that "the volume of oil transported through the strait may take some time to return to pre-war levels".

丹麦航运巨头马士基也表示，现在判断协议将如何影响物流“为时尚早”，目前其在该地区运营没有变化。

The Danish shipping giant Maersk also stated that it is "too early" to determine how the agreement will affect logistics, and currently its operations in the region have not changed.

油价会怎样变化？

How will the oil price change?

据BBC报道，正常情况下，全球约五分之一的石油和液化天然气供应都要经过霍尔木兹海峡，而通航受阻导致油价上涨。这反过来又对汽油、柴油和航空燃油的价格产生了连锁反应。

According to the BBC, under normal circumstances, about one fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz. When navigation is disrupted, oil prices rise. This, in turn, has a ripple effect on the prices of gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel.

冲突期间，布伦特原油价格一度攀升至每桶约120美元，而冲突爆发前，其价格略低于每桶 70美元。而美伊双方达成协议的消息公布后，布伦特原油价格回落至每桶83.55美元。

During the conflict, the price of Brent crude oil rose to approximately $120 per barrel at one point, while before the conflict broke out, it was slightly lower than $70 per barrel. After the news of the agreement between the US and Iran was announced, the price of Brent crude oil dropped to $83.55 per barrel.

虽然油价回落，荷兰合作银行高级能源策略师弗洛伦斯·施密特仍指出，在协议正式签署之前，“市场极有可能出现剧烈波动”。她说，“全面和平协议的达成可能还有很长的路要走。”

Although oil prices have dropped, Florenz Schmidt, a senior energy strategist at Rabobank, still pointed out that "there is a high likelihood of significant market fluctuations before the formal signing of the agreement". She said, "The full peace agreement may still be a long way off."

谈到未来的油价时，弗洛伦斯·施密特进一步表示，鉴于目前利好消息不断以及“受市场情绪驱动”的抛售，油价有可能跌破每桶80美元，但到年底时，油价可能会再次回到每桶80美元左右的平均水平。

When it comes to future oil prices, Florence Schmidt further stated that, given the continuous positive news and the "market sentiment-driven" selling, the oil price may fall below $80 per barrel. However, by the end of the year, the oil price is likely to return to an average level of around $80 per barrel.

食品价格能缓解吗？

Can food prices be reduced?

此前，霍尔木兹海峡的航运几近停滞，全球化肥供应链也遭受重创，化肥价格飙升给农民带来了巨大压力。如今，如果化肥供应能够恢复到正常水平，全球食品价格也有望得到缓解。

Previously, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz almost came to a standstill, and the global fertilizer supply chain was severely affected. The soaring prices of fertilizers put great pressure on farmers. Now, if the supply of fertilizers can return to normal levels, global food prices are also expected to be relieved.

BBC报道援引分析师的话说，停火“应该有助于缓解化肥市场面临的直接压力”，但效果不会立刻显现。

The BBC report, citing analysts, said that the ceasefire "should help alleviate the immediate pressure on the fertilizer market", but the effect would not be immediately visible.

分析师指出，大约三分之一的化肥贸易和大量用于生产氮肥的天然气都要经过霍尔木兹海峡，而“能源基础设施的持续损害”仍需时间修复。

The analyst pointed out that approximately one-third of the fertilizer trade and a significant amount of the natural gas used for producing nitrogen fertilizers pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and "the continuous damage to the energy infrastructure" still requires time to be repaired.

“此外，世界许多地区的作物生长季已经开始，因此恢复氮肥和磷肥的供应对农作物来说为时已晚，这将对全球农产品生产造成负面影响。”

Furthermore, the crop growing seasons have already begun in many parts of the world. Therefore, restoring the supply of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers is too late for the crops, which will have a negative impact on global agricultural production.