2026年，拉美化工行业仍将深陷多重危机叠加的困境。中东冲突推高运费与原料价格，多数大型企业预计将再度迎来业绩承压的一年。在墨西哥，化工企业同时面临全球化工周期下行、高杠杆债务以及结构性短板等多重压力。而在巴西，化工供应链出现了全新且难以预料的成本上涨压力，且持续多年的贸易保护争论也愈演愈烈。

In 2026, the chemical industry in Latin America will still be mired in the predicament of multiple crises overlapping. The conflict in the Middle East has driven up freight and raw material prices, and most large enterprises are expected to experience another year of pressured performance. In Mexico, chemical companies are simultaneously facing multiple pressures such as the downward trend of the global chemical cycle, high leverage debt, and structural shortcomings. In Brazil, the chemical supply chain has encountered new and unpredictable cost increases, and the trade protection disputes that have persisted for many years have also intensified.

墨西哥：化工巨头陷经营和债务困境

Mexico: Chemical giant embroiled in operational and debt troubles

墨西哥化工巨头面临严峻的经营和债务困境，其中巴西布拉斯科公司与墨西哥Grupo Idesa合资的聚乙烯企业Braskem Idesa处境最为严峻。在多年利润被挤压、墨西哥国有石油公司Pemex乙烷供应长期不足后，该公司已提出债务重组方案，寻求至多7亿美元新增流动性。其困境也折射出墨西哥化工行业的顽疾：上游原料基础设施薄弱始终制约产业竞争力。

The Mexican chemical giant is facing severe operational and debt problems. Among them, the polyethylene enterprise Braskem Idesa, jointly established by Brazil's Braskem Company and Mexico's Grupo Idesa, is in the most dire situation. After years of squeezed profits and long-term insufficient ethane supply from Mexico's state-owned oil company Pemex, the company has proposed a debt restructuring plan, seeking up to 700 million US dollars in additional liquidity. Its predicament also reflects the chronic problems of the Mexican chemical industry: the weak infrastructure for raw materials at the upstream stage has always constrained the industry's competitiveness.

墨西哥最大石化企业Alpek核心业务为聚对苯二甲酸乙二醇酯(PET)和精对苯二甲酸(PTA)，这两种产品受到来自亚洲的严重冲击，三大评级机构已将其评级下调至投资级以下。惠誉预计，其EBITDA利润率到2027年仅能恢复至6%左右，远低于历史中期水平。

The core business of Alpek, the largest petrochemical company in Mexico, is polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and purified terephthalic acid (PTA). These products have been severely impacted by Asia. The three major rating agencies have downgraded their ratings to below investment grade. Fitch predicts that its EBITDA margin will only recover to around 6% by 2027, which is far below the historical mid-level.

墨西哥三大化工巨头中业务最多元的Orbia虽已推进战略转型，但其占比最大的聚氯乙烯(PVC)业务仍在大幅亏损，全球供应过剩局面短期难改。2025年公司净亏损3.59亿美元，仅氟化工、新能源、精密农业等板块表现强劲。

Among the three major chemical giants in Mexico, Orbia, which has the most diversified business, has already initiated a strategic transformation. However, its largest business segment, polyvinyl chloride (PVC), is still suffering significant losses, and the global oversupply situation is unlikely to change in the short term. In 2025, the company suffered a net loss of 359 million US dollars, with only the fluorine chemicals, new energy, and precision agriculture sectors performing strongly.

而笼罩在这三家企业乃至墨西哥整体工业经济之上的，是美墨加协定(USMCA)的重新谈判。墨西哥化工行业协会高管托斯卡诺在采访中表示：“2025至2026年，墨西哥经济前景又多了一重不确定性与拖累因素，那就是美墨加协定的重新谈判。在我们所处的产业链中，客户在制造、生产和出口方面仍存在相当大的不确定性。”墨西哥化工行业正积极游说，希望在续签后的协定中保留北美化工市场零关税、一体化的安排。对该行业而言，美墨加协定最终谈判结果可能并不亚于亚洲供应格局的变化。

Over these three enterprises and the entire industrial economy of Mexico, there lies the renegotiation of the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement). The executive of the Mexican Chemical Industry Association, Toscano, stated in an interview: "From 2025 to 2026, the economic outlook of Mexico has gained another layer of uncertainty and drag factor, which is the renegotiation of the USMCA. In our industrial chain, customers still have considerable uncertainty in terms of manufacturing, production, and export." The Mexican chemical industry is actively lobbying to retain the zero-tariff and integrated arrangement for the North American chemical market in the renewed agreement. For this industry, the final negotiation outcome of the USMCA may not be less significant than the changes in the Asian supply pattern.

巴西：供应链面临成本上涨巨大压力

Brazil: Supply chain faces huge pressure from rising costs

巴西是受中东冲突影响最严重的拉美经济体之一。短短三周内，这场冲突就让巴西化工企业供应链出现了全新且难以预料的成本上涨压力。巴西化工分销商协会会长鲁本斯·梅德拉诺表示，巴西化工分销商已经收到供应商通知，未来发货价格最高将上调30%，而当前集装箱运费报价已达到冲突前的两至三倍。

Brazil is one of the Latin American economies most affected by the conflicts in the Middle East. Within just three weeks, this conflict has brought about a completely new and unpredictable increase in costs for the supply chain of Brazilian chemical enterprises. Rubens Medrano, the president of the Brazilian Chemical Distributors Association, said that Brazilian chemical distributors have received notifications from suppliers that the future shipping prices will be increased by up to 30%, and the current container freight rates have reached two to three times the levels before the conflict.

由于霍尔木兹海峡事实上已被封锁，全球船用燃料成本暴涨30%～35%，巴西桑托斯港的船用燃料价格也随之上涨约25%。梅德拉诺表示：“这些成本最终会沿着产业链向下传导。”

As the Strait of Hormuz has actually been blocked, the cost of global marine fuel has soared by 30% to 35%, and the price of marine fuel at the Santos Port in Brazil has also risen by approximately 25%. Medranó said: "These costs will eventually be passed on along the supply chain."

除了运费之外，巴西化工生产商协会(Abiquim)还指出了更深层次的结构性风险。巴西虽是原油净出口国，但包括石脑油在内的成品油仍是净进口，而石脑油正是其化工行业的核心原料。这意味着，布伦特原油价格的持续上涨将直接推高巴西工业生产成本。不过，短期内最紧迫的问题还是化肥。巴西约85%的化肥依赖进口，而伊朗是全球尿素和氨的主要出口国。冲突爆发以来，巴西国内尿素价格涨幅已超过30%，这对该国体量庞大、影响力极强的农业板块将产生显著的连锁冲击。

Apart from the freight charges, the Brazilian Chemical Manufacturers Association (Abiquim) also pointed out deeper structural risks. Although Brazil is a net exporter of crude oil, refined oil products such as naphtha are still net imports, and naphtha is the core raw material for its chemical industry. This means that the continuous rise in Brent crude oil prices will directly increase the production costs of Brazilian industries. However, the most urgent problem in the short term is fertilizers. About 85% of Brazil's fertilizers are imported, and Iran is the main exporter of urea and ammonia in the world. Since the outbreak of the conflict, the price of urea in Brazil has risen by more than 30%, which will have a significant chain impact on the large and influential agricultural sector in the country.

贸易保护争论愈演愈烈

The trade protection debate is intensifying.

这场冲突也重新点燃了巴西国内围绕化工产品贸易保护政策旷日持久且愈发激烈的争论。

This conflict has reignited the long-standing and increasingly intense debate within Brazil over trade protection policies for chemical products.

代表本土生产商的巴西化工协会(Abiquim)对供应中断担忧予以明确反驳，并指出巴西国内有约40%的化工产能处于闲置状态，可作为应急战略储备。该协会首席执行官安德烈·帕索斯(Andre Passos)表示：“这场冲突确实在全球范围内推高了成本，尤其是能源和化肥领域。但就化工品而言，巴西拥有充足的工业产能以保障市场供应。”

The Brazilian Chemical Industry Association (Abiquim), representing local producers, has firmly refuted concerns over supply disruptions and pointed out that approximately 40% of the country's chemical production capacity is currently idle, which can serve as an emergency strategic reserve. The association's CEO, Andre Passos, stated: "This conflict has indeed pushed up costs globally, especially in the energy and fertilizer sectors. However, in terms of chemicals, Brazil has sufficient industrial capacity to ensure market supply."

然而，代表塑料加工企业的巴西塑料协会(Abiplast)却持完全不同的观点。该协会主席何塞·里卡多·罗里兹称，针对北美供应商的贸易保护措施，包括拟对美国和加拿大聚乙烯(PE)征收反倾销税，可能会切断巴西在全球供应动荡时期最需要的货源渠道。

However, the Brazilian Plastics Association (Abiplast), representing plastic processing enterprises, holds a completely different view. The association's president, José Ricardo Roriz, stated that trade protection measures targeting North American suppliers, including the proposed imposition of anti-dumping duties on polyethylene (PE) from the United States and Canada, could potentially cut off Brazil's most critical supply channels during periods of global supply instability.