电厂接货价格上调 港口优质货源紧俏
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摘要:电厂接货价格上调 港口优质货源紧俏

关键词:电厂 国内煤 印尼煤
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日前,华南珠电对接货价格进行调整,国内煤上调19-20元/吨,印尼煤上调9-10元/吨,澳洲煤上调5元/吨。另据魏桥所有入厂电煤上调10元/吨。

Recently, Huashan Zhudi Power Company has adjusted the delivery prices. The domestic coal prices have increased by 19-20 yuan per ton, the Indonesian coal prices have risen by 9-10 yuan per ton, and the Australian coal prices have gone up by 5 yuan per ton. Additionally, the coal for all the power plants in Weiqiao has been raised by 10 yuan per ton.


电厂接货价格上调,提振了煤炭市场,港口贸易商挺价意愿增强,低价不愿出货。而受产地供给收紧及铁路沿线分流影响,环渤海港口存煤继续下降。

The increase in the delivery price at power plants has boosted the coal market. Port traders have become more willing to maintain high prices and are reluctant to sell at low prices. Due to the tightening supply at the production sites and the diversion along the railway lines, the coal stock levels at the ports along the Bohai Rim continue to decline.


本周,上游主产区供给端整体偏紧,优质资源紧俏。一方面,常态化安全督查持续约束产能释放,原煤增量有限,优质煤源紧张;发运倒挂的情况下,市场户发运减少。

This week, the supply side in the major upstream production areas was generally tight, and high-quality resources were in short supply. On one hand, regular safety inspections continued to restrict the release of production capacity, resulting in limited increase in raw coal output, and a shortage of high-quality coal sources; in the situation where transportation costs were higher than sales prices, market players reduced their transportation volume.


另一方面,各大煤炭集团上调外购价,带动矿区整体挺价氛围浓厚,产地煤价底部支撑稳固。供需层面多重利好共振,持续拉高动力煤价格中枢走强。本周,环渤海港口库存延续去库通道,单周去库188万吨,疏港出货节奏保持向好态势。

On the other hand, major coal groups have raised the purchase prices, which has led to a strong overall upward trend in the market price in the mining areas, and the bottom support for the coal prices at the production sites has been firmly established. The multiple positive factors in the supply and demand aspects haveed, continuously pushing up the price center of thermal coal. This week, the inventory at the Bohai Rim ports continued to decline, with a weekly reduction of 1.88 million tons. The shipping and delivery pace remained in a positive trend.


环渤海港口市场维持僵持偏强格局,当前矿区至港口全程发运成本居高不下,长期存在倒挂现象,贸易商长途集港意愿低迷,港口货源补充力度不足,低硫高热卡优质煤结构性紧缺凸显。尽管终端采购多以长协保供煤为主,但由于电厂日耗拉高,部分用户有增加优质市场煤采购数量,用于提卡或配煤的诉求;而受成本限制,贸易商低价出货意愿很弱,普遍选择挺价观望,对煤价形成硬性支撑。需求端,迎来旺季强力提振。

The port market around the Bohai Sea remains in a stalemate and relatively strong state. Currently, the total transportation cost from the mining area to the port remains high, with a persistent gap phenomenon. The willingness of traders to transport goods long distances to the port is low, and the replenishment of port supplies is insufficient. The structural shortage of low-sulfur and high-calorie high-quality coal is prominent. Although terminal purchases are mainly based on long-term contracts for supply assurance coal, due to the increase in daily power plant consumption, some users have the demand to increase the purchase quantity of high-quality market coal for quality improvement or blending; and due to cost constraints, traders' willingness to sell at low prices is very weak. They generally choose to hold firm and wait, providing a strong support for coal prices. In the demand side, the arrival of the peak season has strongly boosted demand.


全国大范围酷暑高温天气持续,居民空调制冷用电集中释放,华东华南地区高温持续;同时,算力数据中心、高端制造产业用电规模不断扩大,双重因素拉动全社会用电负荷连创新高。沿海八省电厂日耗稳定运行于年内高位区间,且后续气温仍有上行空间,电厂耗煤需求存在进一步抬升预期。数据显示,目前电厂库存储备仍高于往年同期,但日耗持续走高将加速库存消化,后期刚需补库潜力逐步释放,短期煤价震荡偏强运行走势难改。

The widespread hot and humid weather across the country persists, with residents' electricity consumption for air conditioning cooling peaking. The high temperatures continue in the eastern and southern regions. At the same time, the electricity consumption of computing power data centers and high-end manufacturing industries is continuously expanding. These two factors have driven the total electricity load of the entire society to reach new highs continuously. The daily electricity consumption of power plants in the eight coastal provinces remains stable within the high range of the year, and the subsequent temperature is still on the rise. There is an expectation that the demand for coal consumption by power plants will further increase. Data shows that currently, the inventory reserves of power plants are still higher than those in previous years. However, the continuous increase in daily consumption will accelerate the digestion of inventory, and the potential for urgent replenishment of stocks will gradually be released in the future. The short-term trend of coal prices remaining relatively strong in a fluctuating manner is unlikely to change.


多方面利多因素支撑市场短期内不会下跌,首先,山西安监高压,大量矿井停产,短期区域货源缺口明显。其次,产地到港口发运倒挂,贸易商集港意愿偏低,形成价格底部支撑。

Multiple favorable factors are supporting the market and preventing it from falling in the short term. Firstly, there is a high level of supervision and control in Shanxi Province, with a large number of mines being shut down. There is a significant short-term shortage of regional supply. Secondly, the transportation cost from the production area to the port is higher than the cost of purchasing from the port, which has reduced the willingness of traders to gather at the port, providing a bottom support for the price.


再次,“迎峰度夏”旺季延续,内陆电厂日耗增加,化工、冶金等非电刚需稳定,提供基础需求托底。第四,环渤海港口库存持续去化,前期滞压船舶集中疏港,港口继续去库。

Again, the peak summer consumption season continues, with increased daily consumption at inland power plants. The non-electric demand such as in the chemical and metallurgical industries remains stable, providing a solid foundation for demand support. Fourth, the inventories at the ports along the Bohai Sea continue to decrease, with a large number of stranded vessels being cleared from the ports, and the ports continue to reduce their inventories.


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