随着动力煤消费旺季临近，市场对于厄尔尼诺现象可能推高夏季气温峰值及电力负荷的预期依然较强。然而，在国内长协煤供应保障充足、上下游库存明显回升以及高温天气尚未兑现等因素影响下，国内市场现实需求偏弱，北方港口现货交易持续冷清，煤价开始出现松动。

As the peak consumption season for thermal coal approaches, market expectations that the El Niño phenomenon might raise the peak summer temperatures and increase electricity load remain strong. However, influenced by factors such as sufficient domestic long-term contract coal supply, significant increase in upstream and downstream inventories, and the fact that the hot weather has not yet materialized, the actual demand in the domestic market is weak. Spot trading at northern ports remains sluggish, and coal prices have begun to show signs of relaxation.

6月25日，CCTD环渤海动力煤现货参考价显示，5500K、5000K和4500K动力煤价格分别为857元/吨、766元/吨和668元/吨，日环比均下跌3元/吨，结束了此前持续两周的僵持局面。

On June 25th, the current reference price of spot coal in the Bohai Rim region as shown by CCTD indicated that the prices of 5500K, 5000K and 4500K grade coal were 857 yuan/ton, 766 yuan/ton and 668 yuan/ton respectively. The prices dropped by 3 yuan/ton each day, marking the end of the stalemate that had persisted for two consecutive weeks.

海外利空因素集中释放，进口煤价格承压

Overseas negative factors have been concentratedly released, putting pressure on the price of imported coal.

近期海外市场变化进一步加大了国内煤价下行压力。

Recent changes in the overseas market have further intensified the downward pressure on domestic coal prices.

首先，6月23日，伊朗正式宣布霍尔木兹海峡已对商船完全开放。海峡重开后，国际市场对能源供应中断的担忧迅速缓解。6月24日，布伦特原油价格单日大跌7%，跌破75美元/桶，抹平美伊冲突爆发以来的全部涨幅。随着能源供应链紧张预期降温，前期支撑动力煤价格上涨的部分逻辑开始弱化。

Firstly, on June 23rd, Iran officially announced that the Strait of Hormuz has been fully opened to commercial ships. After the reopening of the strait, concerns about energy supply disruptions in the international market were quickly alleviated. On June 24th, the Brent crude oil price dropped by 7% in a single day, falling below $75 per barrel, wiping out all the gains made since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict. As expectations of tight energy supply chains cooled down, some of the previous logic that supported the increase in the price of thermal coal began to weaken.

其次，中东局势缓和、油价下跌叠加中国采购需求疲软，推动国内外干散货航运市场运费快速回落。截至6月24日，澳大利亚海波因特至中国舟山巴拿马型船运费指数降至17.22美元/吨，较月初高点下跌4.7美元/吨（-21.5%）；印尼塔巴尼奥至中国广州超灵便型船运费指数降至12.57美元/吨，较前期高点下跌0.9美元/吨（-6.7%）。

Secondly, the easing of the situation in the Middle East, the decline in oil prices, and the weak purchasing demand from China have jointly driven the freight rates in the global dry bulk shipping market to fall rapidly. As of June 24th, the Panama-type ship freight index from Hauppoint, Australia to Zhoushan, China dropped to 17.22 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 4.7 US dollars per ton (21.5%) from the peak at the beginning of the month; the freight index for ultra-spar ships from Tabanio, Indonesia to Guangzhou, China dropped to 12.57 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 0.9 US dollars per ton (6.7%) from the previous peak.

运费回落直接降低了进口煤到岸成本，同时增强了终端用户的观望情绪，并对国内外动力煤价格形成进一步压制。

The reduction in freight costs directly lowered the cost of imported coal at the port of arrival. At the same time, it strengthened the观望 mood of end-users and further suppressed the prices of both domestic and international thermal coal.

到港货源集中释放，港口库存压力上升

The concentrated release of inbound goods has led to an increase in inventory pressure at the ports.

与此同时，前期市场一致看涨背景下锁定的大量进口煤货源正陆续到岸，华南港口积船现象仍较突出。部分码头卸货等待时间已长达两周，滞港成本持续增加，迫使部分贸易商选择降价出货。截至6月25日，广州港煤炭库存达到323.9万吨，同比增加12.9万吨。

Meanwhile, a large amount of imported coal that was locked in during the initial period of market optimism has been arriving at the ports one after another. The phenomenon of ships stacking up at the ports in South China is still quite prominent. Some terminals have had waiting times for unloading for up to two weeks, and the cost of being stranded at the ports has continued to increase, forcing some traders to choose to sell at discounted prices. As of June 25th, the coal inventory at Guangzhou Port reached 323.9 million tons, an increase of 12.9 million tons compared to the same period last year.

在运费下跌、库存累积以及需求偏弱的共同作用下，近期进口煤离岸价与到岸价均出现回落。部分电厂收到的3800大卡印尼煤投标价格已降至570元/吨左右。根据CCTD测算，本周以来，进口印尼3800大卡煤较相近品质国产煤折算至华南到岸价低约30元/吨，价格优势较上周进一步扩大。

Due to the combined effects of falling freight costs, accumulated inventory and weak demand, the offshore and landed prices of imported coal have both declined recently. The bidding price for 3800 kcal Indonesian coal received by some power plants has dropped to around 570 yuan/ton. According to CCTD's calculation, since this week, the imported Indonesian 3800 kcal coal, when converted to the landed price in South China, is about 30 yuan/ton lower than the similar-quality domestic coal, and the price advantage has further expanded compared to last week.

整体来看，当前国产煤与进口煤市场均面临需求不足的问题，价格呈现同步走弱态势。

Overall, both the domestic coal market and the imported coal market are currently facing the problem of insufficient demand, and prices are showing a synchronized downward trend.

价格下行仍受多重因素制约

The downward trend in prices is still constrained by multiple factors.

尽管短期市场承压，但对后市也不宜过度悲观，动力煤市场仍存在若干潜在支撑因素。

Although the short-term market is under pressure, we should not be overly pessimistic about the future. There are still several potential supporting factors in the coal market.

油价中长期支撑尚未完全消失

The long-term support for oil prices has not completely vanished.

霍尔木兹海峡恢复通航后，能源市场风险溢价有所回落，但全球能源供需格局并未完全回到冲突前状态。中东冲突期间，多国消耗了部分战略石油储备，未来数月补库需求有望逐步释放。同时，部分产能恢复仍需时间，油价短期内仍具备支撑基础，甚至存在再度走强的可能。因此，年内油价中枢抬升对动力煤市场的支撑作用并未完全消失。

After the Hormuz Strait resumed navigation, the risk premium in the energy market has decreased somewhat. However, the global energy supply and demand pattern has not fully returned to the state before the conflict. During the conflict in the Middle East, many countries consumed some of their strategic oil reserves. The demand for replenishment in the coming months is expected to gradually be released. At the same time, it will take some time for some production capacity to recover. Oil prices still have a supporting basis in the short term and there is even a possibility of further strengthening. Therefore, the upward movement of the oil price in the year has not completely lost its supportive effect on the power coal market.

厄尔尼诺预期仍支撑夏季用煤需求

El Niño is expected to continue to support coal demand in the summer.

目前，厄尔尼诺可能带来的高温预期依然存在。随着迎峰度夏深入，中国电力负荷增长仍值得关注。在用煤高峰阶段，长协煤对市场的覆盖作用可能边际减弱，市场煤价格仍具备一定向上弹性。

At present, the expected high temperatures brought about by El Niño still exist. As the peak summer power demand period progresses, the growth of China's power load remains a matter of concern. During the peak coal usage period, the coverage effect of long-term contract coal on the market may marginally weaken, and the market coal prices still have certain upward elasticity.

与此同时，印度市场也存在潜在需求增量。数据显示，印度5月份动力煤进口量同比下降25.8%。受卢比贬值影响，进口煤成本持续高企，进口补充作用减弱，国内电厂库存下降明显。

Meanwhile, there is also potential demand growth in the Indian market. Data shows that India's imports of thermal coal decreased by 25.8% in May compared to the previous year. Due to the depreciation of the rupee, the cost of imported coal has remained high, the role of imports in supply has weakened, and domestic power plant inventories have decreased significantly.

但根据印度气象局预测，厄尔尼诺现象可能导致季风季节降雨偏少、高温天气持续时间延长、水力发电不足，后续印度电厂存在释放补库需求的可能，从而为亚洲动力煤市场提供额外支撑。

However, according to the forecast of the Indian Meteorological Department, the El Niño phenomenon may lead to less rainfall during the monsoon season, prolonged duration of hot weather, and insufficient hydropower generation. Subsequently, Indian power plants may have the potential to release reserve supplies, thereby providing additional support for the Asian thermal coal market.

印尼出口增量仍面临不确定性

Indonesia's export growth still faces uncertainties.

供应端方面，虽然市场传出印尼可能增加煤矿生产配额的消息，但产量增长以及出口增量实际释放仍需要时间验证。

On the supply side, although there are reports in the market suggesting that Indonesia might increase the production quota for coal mines, it will still take some time to verify whether the increase in production and export volume will actually materialize.

与此同时，印尼煤炭国内市场义务（DMO）比例已由25%提高至30%，印尼国家电力公司PLN仍面临煤炭供应偏紧问题。6月22日，印尼能矿部长表示，政府正在研究煤炭掺混政策，以保障PLN燃煤电厂供应。

Meanwhile, the domestic obligation (DMO) ratio for coal in Indonesia has increased from 25% to 30%. Despite this, the Indonesian state power company PLN still faces a shortage of coal supply. On June 22nd, the Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources stated that the government is studying a coal blending policy to ensure the supply of coal to PLN's coal-fired power plants.

在优先保障国内用煤需求的政策背景下，印尼煤炭出口增量空间受到一定限制。此外，关于出口国家专营等政策的不确定性依然存在，亚洲动力煤供应增长仍面临多重约束。

Under the policy of prioritizing domestic coal demand, the potential for increase in Indonesia's coal exports has been somewhat constrained. Moreover, uncertainties regarding policies such as exclusive export rights for certain countries still persist, and there are multiple constraints on the growth of Asian thermal coal supply.

当前动力煤市场受到需求兑现不足、运费下跌及进口煤集中到港等因素影响，价格阶段性走弱。但厄尔尼诺带来的高温预期以及印尼出口受限等因素仍将对市场形成支撑，煤价下行空间或相对有限，迎峰度夏期间煤价依然可期。

Currently, the power coal market is experiencing a decline in prices due to insufficient demand fulfillment, falling freight rates, and concentrated import coal arrivals at ports. However, the expected high temperatures brought about by El Niño and the restricted exports from Indonesia will still provide support for the market. The downward potential of coal prices may be relatively limited, and coal prices are still expected to remain stable during the peak demand period for cooling in summer.