国内焦炭第五轮提涨正式落地！

The fifth round of price increase for domestic coke has officially taken effect!

山西沁源煤矿事故后，焦煤、动力煤等供应收紧，焦炭连续第五轮提涨。虽然山西煤矿复产数量有所增加，但是复产后多数煤矿产量明显下滑。业内人士提醒，冀望进口煤补充缺口的预期，可能会落空。国际煤炭价格涨幅高于国内，且印尼、蒙古都可能进一步限产，预计补充作用会相对有限，国内迎峰度夏期间煤炭的供需可能进一步紧张。

After the coal mine accident in Qin Yuan, Shanxi Province, the supply of coking coal and thermal coal tightened, and the price of coke was raised for the fifth consecutive time. Although the number of coal mines in Shanxi that resumed production has increased, the output of most of these mines has significantly declined after resumption. Industry insiders warn that the expectation of importing coal to fill the gap may not come true. The increase in international coal prices is higher than that in domestic markets, and both Indonesia and Mongolia may further restrict production. The supplementary effect is expected to be relatively limited. During the peak summer demand period in China, the supply and demand of coal may become even more tense.

值得注意的是，今年水电发电量大增，可能会在一定程度上缓解火电紧张局面。随着雨水季节来临，西南地区大中型水电站蓄能指标及来水指标正在进一步好转，水电板块也在“量价齐升”。

It is worth noting that this year, the electricity generated by hydropower has significantly increased, which may to some extent alleviate the shortage of thermal power. As the rainy season approaches, the storage capacity and water inflow indicators of large-scale hydropower stations in the southwest region are further improving, and the hydropower sector is experiencing "both rising volume and price".

煤炭内外供给全面收紧

The supply of coal both domestically and internationally has been comprehensively tightened.

在山西沁源煤矿事故后，山西省复产情况如何？我的钢铁网（Mysteel）最新调研结果显示：5月23日以来山西停产煤矿总计数量135座，产能共计1.537亿吨。截至6月3日，复产煤矿数量达到59座，产能共计7765万吨。仍在停产状态煤矿共计77座，产能共计7605万吨。

After the coal mine accident in Qin Yuan, Shanxi Province, how is the resumption of production situation there? The latest survey results from MySteel show that since May 23rd, a total of 135 coal mines in Shanxi Province have been shut down, with a total production capacity of 1.537 billion tons. As of June 3rd, the number of resuming production coal mines has reached 59, with a total production capacity of 776.5 million tons. There are still 77 coal mines in a shutdown state, with a total production capacity of 760.5 million tons.

这份调查显示，复产后多数煤矿产量下滑。已复产的59座煤矿当中，原煤日产已由停产前的29.26万吨，减至复产后的19.56万吨，降幅33.15%。并且，随着山西安监力度的升级，在产、复产煤矿因安全检查陷入停产的煤矿在陆续增多，产地煤矿产量预计将在相当一段时间内维持低位。

This survey shows that after resuming production, the output of most coal mines has declined. Among the 59 coal mines that have resumed production, the daily output of raw coal has decreased from 292,600 tons before the suspension to 195,600 tons after resumption, a reduction of 33.15%. Moreover, with the upgrading of safety supervision in Shanxi Province, the number of coal mines that have been suspended due to safety inspections and are now resuming production is increasing. The output of coal mines in the production area is expected to remain at a low level for a considerable period of time.

方正中期期货煤炭研究员段智栈对券商中国记者表示，煤炭价格仍会偏强运行，需要重点关注煤矿复产进度，以及实际产量的变动。当前并不是煤炭消费的旺季，每年7—8月迎峰度夏期间，火电带动煤炭需求增加，会导致价格上涨，供需可能进一步紧张。

Duan Zhizhan, a coal researcher at Fangzheng Mid-Term Futures, told China Securities Journal, "The coal price will remain relatively strong. We need to pay close attention to the progress of coal mines resuming production and the changes in actual output. Currently, it is not the peak consumption season for coal. During the peak summer load period from July to August each year, the increase in coal demand driven by thermal power generation will lead to price hikes, and the supply-demand situation may become even more tense."

当前，国际煤炭价格也在快速上行。全球动力煤基准——洲际交易所（ICE）纽卡斯尔动力煤期货次月交割合约价格，报价146.15美元/吨，创下近两年来新高。而进口3800卡动力煤报价已涨至75美元/吨之上，连续多日大幅上涨。国内市场唯一的煤炭ETF国泰（515220）表现尤为亮眼，近5个交易日累计净流入达13.05亿元，最新基金份额突破100亿份。

Currently, international coal prices are also rising rapidly. The benchmark for global thermal coal - the ICE Newcastle Thermal Coal Futures contract for delivery in the following month - has been quoted at $146.15 per ton, reaching a new high in the past two years. The price for imported 3800-kilocalorie thermal coal has risen above $75 per ton, with a significant increase over several consecutive days. The only coal ETF in the domestic market, Guotai (515220), has performed particularly well. In the past five trading days, its net inflow has reached 1.305 billion yuan, and the latest fund share has exceeded 10 billion units.

进口煤的补充作用会相对有限。印尼6月开始由国企统一管理煤炭出口，出口煤价已经出现了明显上涨，今年前4个月印尼出口煤已经下滑6.9%；蒙煤虽然现在的出口量和口岸的库存量都在高位，但随着蒙古国同步加强矿场安全检查，且前4个月国内进口3900万吨，照此进度蒙古国全年会有1.17亿吨的煤炭出口，而去年定的出口目标为1亿吨左右，因此下半年蒙煤不仅不能贡献额外增量，反而还有减量的可能。

The supplementary effect of imported coal will be relatively limited. In June, Indonesia began to uniformly manage coal exports by state-owned enterprises. The price of exported coal has already shown a significant increase. In the first four months of this year, Indonesia's coal exports have declined by 6.9%. Although the current export volume and stock at the ports of Mongolia are at high levels, as Mongolia simultaneously strengthens safety inspections at mining sites and imported 39 million tons domestically in the first four months, at this rate, Mongolia will have 117 million tons of coal exports for the whole year. Last year, the set export target was around 100 million tons.

水电发电量正在大幅增加

The hydropower generation capacity is increasing significantly.

为应对即将到来的“迎峰度夏”行情，火电企业大量增加采购。“我们紧盯电网负荷变化，动态调整机组出力，高效释放产能，1月至4月发电量、利润总额同比分别增长7.95%、139.81%。”陕煤电力集团所属陕煤运电公司董事长陈化军对当地媒体表示。

To cope with the upcoming "summer peak power demand" situation, thermal power enterprises have significantly increased their procurement. "We closely monitor changes in grid load and dynamically adjust the output of generating units, efficiently releasing production capacity. From January to April, the power generation volume and total profit increased by 7.95% and 139.81% respectively compared to the same period last year," Chen Huajun, the chairman of Shaanxi Coal Electricity Group's Shaanxi Coal Yundian Electric Power Company, told local media.

相对于产煤地的电力企业，沿海地区进口动力煤发电企业则面临成本压力。广东一家发电企业有关人士对券商中国记者表示，“公司使用的煤炭有近四成是进口煤，大部分来自印尼。除了印尼价格政策调整外，运输成本也都在上涨，导致煤炭采购内外价差持续倒挂，总成本在持续上升。”

Compared with power enterprises in coal-producing areas, those in coastal regions that import thermal coal for power generation are facing cost pressures. A person from a power enterprise in Guangdong told China Capital Market that, "Nearly 40% of the coal we use is imported coal, mostly from Indonesia. Besides the adjustment of price policies in Indonesia, transportation costs are also increasing, resulting in a continuous gap between the internal and external prices of coal purchases, and the total cost is continuously rising."

面对火电成本持续攀升，今年水电发电量增幅更大，可能会在一定程度上缓解火电紧张局面。根据国家能源局数据，2026年4月全国水力发电量881.2亿千瓦时，同比增长12.09%；1—4月水电累计发电量3265.7亿千瓦时，同比增长7.8%，整体保持稳步上行态势。

Facing the continuous increase in the cost of thermal power generation, this year the increase in hydropower generation has been even greater, which may to some extent alleviate the shortage of thermal power. According to data from the National Energy Administration, in April 2026, the national hydropower generation was 88.12 billion kilowatt-hours, with a year-on-year growth of 12.09%; from January to April, the cumulative hydropower generation was 326.57 billion kilowatt-hours, with a year-on-year growth of 7.8%. Overall, it has maintained a steady upward trend.

随着雨水季来临，西南地区大中型水电站蓄能指标及来水指标，正在进一步好转，水电板块也在“量价齐升”。我的钢铁网（Mysteel）认为，水电发电量实现大幅同比增长，核心原因是各大主要流域来水情况显著改善，降雨量增多、河道水量充沛，水库蓄水得到有效补充，机组发电能力得以充分释放。

As the rainy season approaches, the storage capacity and water inflow indicators of large-scale hydropower stations in the southwestern region are further improving, and the hydropower sector is experiencing a "dual increase in quantity and price". My Steel Net (Mysteel) believes that the significant year-on-year growth in hydropower generation is mainly due to the remarkable improvement in water inflow in major river basins. With increased rainfall and abundant river water, reservoirs have received effective replenishment, and the generating capacity of power units has been fully released.

重仓长江电力的绿电ETF华夏（562550）也迎来资金持续流入，连续3个交易日获资金净流入，最高单日获得1.93亿元净流入，合计“吸金”3.42亿元。而基金份额从年初的2.61亿份，增加到最新的17.97亿份。

The Green Power ETF of Huaxia (562550), which has a significant position in China Yangtze Power, has also seen continuous inflows of funds. It has received net inflows of funds for three consecutive trading days, with the highest single-day net inflow reaching 193 million yuan, and the total "capital absorption" amounting to 342 million yuan. Meanwhile, the fund share has increased from 261 million units at the beginning of the year to the current 1.797 billion units.

招商证券表示，煤价上涨有望支持明年电价提升，水电核电等绿色能源有望显著受益。厄尔尼诺来袭带动用电需求与来水改善，在现货及结算电价超预期以及算电协同政策催化下，看好电力板块结构性行情。

China Merchants Securities stated that the increase in coal prices is expected to support the increase in electricity prices next year, and green energy sources such as hydropower and nuclear power are expected to benefit significantly. The arrival of El Niño has driven up electricity demand and improved water supply. With the unexpected increase in spot and settlement electricity prices, as well as the catalysis of the coordinated policy for calculating electricity costs, the power sector is expected to experience a structural bull market.