前期，发运成本下降，叠加询货需求偏少影响，市场情绪受压制；但由于沿海电厂日耗表现同比偏好，叠加大秦线检修、国际能源外溢风险依旧存在等支撑因素影响，市场低价货源也较少见，整体处于僵持弱稳状态。清明节期间，产地价格及华哥外购价格先后小幅上调，叠加环渤海港口下锚船增多，预示着煤价逐渐趋稳止跌，节后将出现小幅上涨。

Initially, the transportation costs decreased, and the low demand for inquiries also had an impact, which suppressed the market sentiment. However, due to the relatively favorable daily consumption of coastal power plants year-on-year, coupled with the maintenance of the Gaichuan Line, the risk of international energy spillover still exists, and other supporting factors, the availability of low-priced supplies in the market became less frequent. Overall, the market was in a stalemate and stable state. During the Qingming Festival, the prices at the production sites and the prices purchased by Huaguo were successively raised slightly. Coupled with the increase in anchored ships at the ports along the Bohai Sea, it indicated that the coal prices were gradually stabilizing and stopping their decline. After the festival, there will be a slight increase.

沿海八省电厂日耗在三月下旬冲高至209万吨后，因天气转暖，民用电负荷回落，下降至190万吨以下，预示着传统淡季的真正到来。四月份，部分电厂展开火电机组检修，电煤消费逐步回落；但部分终端想借助煤价回落之际，进行补库和提卡。此外，进口煤价格依然高企，叠加国际能源市场影响的持续，以及非电行业需求的稳定释放，多空交织下，本月煤价将出现“先跌后涨”走势。

The daily power consumption of power plants in the eight coastal provinces reached a peak of 2.09 million tons in late March. However, as the weather warmed up, the electricity load for civilian use decreased and dropped below 1.9 million tons, indicating the true arrival of the traditional off-season. In April, some power plants carried out maintenance on their thermal power units, and the consumption of thermal coal gradually declined. Nevertheless, some end-users took advantage of the fall in coal prices to replenish their stocks and extend their delivery periods. Additionally, the price of imported coal remained high, coupled with the continuous impact of the international energy market and the stable release of demand from non-electric industries. Under the complex interplay of supply and demand, the coal price is expected to show a "first decline then rise" trend this month.

利好因素：首先，进口煤价格高企，补充效果一般，部分终端需求转向内贸煤。其次，化工、建材等非电行业处于“金三银四”周期，对中高卡动力煤的需求持续释放，尤其是产品价格优势明显的煤化工行业。再次，新能源汽车、锂电池、光伏及人工智能等新兴产业快速扩张的背景下，沿海部分省市的电力消耗呈现出明显的增长态势，为煤电提供了更大的出力空间。第四，大秦线开启长达一个月的春季集中修，集港货源减少，环渤海港口停止垒库，即便影响不明显，在情绪上也会有所提振。第五，南方降水量增多，部分地区风电、太阳能出力不足，叠加部分特高压线路检修，给火电腾挪出市场空间。

Favorable factors: Firstly, the price of imported coal is high, and its replenishment effect is average. Some terminal demands have shifted to domestic coal. Secondly, the non-electric industries such as chemicals and building materials are in the "Golden March and Silver April" cycle, and the demand for medium and high calorific power coal continues to be released, especially in the coal chemical industry with obvious price advantages. Thirdly, in the context of the rapid expansion of emerging industries such as new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, photovoltaic, and artificial intelligence, the power consumption in some coastal provinces shows a significant growth trend, providing greater output space for coal power. Fourthly, the Daxing Railway has initiated a month-long spring concentrated maintenance period, resulting in a reduction in port supply and the cessation of stock piling at the ports along the Bohai Bay. Even though the impact is not obvious, it will also have a positive emotional boost. Fifthly, the precipitation in the south has increased, and the output of wind power and solar power in some areas is insufficient. Coupled with the maintenance of some ultra-high voltage lines, it has created market space for thermal power.

利空因素：首先，随着气温的逐步回暖，采暖需求完全退出，且全国大部分地区气温高于往年同期，居民用电负荷较差，需求偏低。其次，水电、风电等可再生能源逐渐发力，火电空间受挤压；在电厂及港口库存偏高情况下，需求释放力度不大。再次，环渤海港口存煤回落缓慢，部分获利盘加快出货，对市场情绪存在一些影响。第四，政策稳价托底效果较好。上级主管部门通过长协机制、煤炭储备制度等手段，对煤价进行调控，防止煤价大幅波动，长协煤价托底作用明显，市场煤价格大幅上涨动力不足。

Negative factors: Firstly, as the temperature gradually rises, the demand for heating completely disappears, and in most regions across the country, the temperature is higher than that of the same period in previous years. The electricity load of residents is poor and the demand is low. Secondly, renewable energy sources such as hydropower and wind power are gradually gaining momentum, while the space for thermal power is being squeezed. In the situation where the inventories at power plants and ports are relatively high, the release of demand is not significant. Thirdly, the coal reserves at the ports in the Bohai Rim region have declined slowly, and some profit-taking players have accelerated their sales, which has some impact on market sentiment. Fourthly, the policy of stabilizing prices and providing a bottom line has achieved good results. The superior authorities have regulated the coal prices through mechanisms such as long-term contracts and the coal reserve system, preventing significant fluctuations in coal prices. The bottom-line effect of long-term coal prices is obvious, and the driving force for a significant increase in market coal prices is insufficient.

本周，大秦线检修影响加大，环渤海港口去库加快；而化工等非电行业用煤需求不弱，且部分电厂仍然存在补库和提卡诉求。叠加进口煤量少价高等利好，清明节过后，动力煤价格止跌反弹是大概率的事。

This week, the maintenance work on the Daqin Line has intensified, leading to a faster depletion of stocks at the ports along the Bohai Sea. Meanwhile, the demand for coal in non-electric industries such as chemicals is not weak, and some power plants still have the demands for replenishing stocks and extending the contract period. Coupled with the favorable factors such as the low quantity and high price of imported coal, it is highly likely that the price of thermal coal will stop falling and rebound after the Qingming Festival.