数据显示，2026年6月中国原油进口量降至2927万吨，同比大幅下滑41%，单月进口数量创下新低，较5月29%的降幅进一步扩大。炼厂在经历前期深度亏损后开工率虽于7月小幅反弹，但仍处于阶段性低位，港口商业原油库存持续去化，需求负反馈表现明显。本周Brent原油期货收于83.55美元/桶，环比下跌7.29%。

The data shows that in June 2026, China's crude oil imports dropped to 29.27 million tons, a significant year-on-year decline of 41%. The monthly import volume reached a new low, with a further expansion of the 29% decline compared to May. Although the processing plants' operating rates rebounded slightly in July after experiencing deep losses in the previous period, they remained at a relatively low level. The commercial crude oil inventory at the ports continued to decrease, and the negative demand feedback was evident. This week, the Brent crude oil futures closed at $83.55 per barrel, down 7.29% compared to the previous week.

近期机构研报指出，尽管原油进口量加速下滑和炼厂开工偏低，但油价中枢向上趋势有望维持，2026年整体将处于高油价背景。研报认为，这将使油公司业绩获得单边改善，中国海油、中国石油等标的弹性较大。

Recent institutional research reports indicate that although the volume of crude oil imports has been declining at an accelerated rate and the operating rates of refineries are low, the upward trend of the oil price center is expected to persist. The overall market will remain in a high oil price environment in 2026. The reports believe that this will lead to a unilateral improvement in the performance of oil companies, and that stocks such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation and China National Petroleum Corporation will have significant flexibility.

同时油价回暖有望带动勘探开发投资增加，中海油服、海油工程等油服工程公司将直接受益。

At the same time, the recovery in oil prices is expected to stimulate an increase in exploration and development investment, and oil service and engineering companies such as China Oilfield Services and China Oil Engineering will directly benefit from this.

研报进一步分析，海外能源危机加速落后产能出清，国内规模企业凭借稳定供应链优势显著，恒力石化、荣盛石化、东方盛虹以及恒逸石化有望脱颖而出。

The research report further analyzed that the overseas energy crisis has accelerated the elimination of backward production capacity. Domestic large-scale enterprises, with their stable supply chain advantages, have performed significantly better and are expected to stand out, such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Dongfang Shenghong and Hengyi Petrochemical.

卫星化学则受益于美国乙烷宽松格局下的能源套利空间。下游聚酯板块供需逐步收紧，PTA盈利明显回升，涤纶长丝优质公司桐昆股份和瓶片龙头万凯新材的景气改善预期较为明确。

Satellite Chemical has benefited from the energy arbitrage opportunities arising from the loose situation of ethane in the United States. The supply and demand in the downstream polyester sector have gradually tightened, and the PTA profit has significantly rebounded. The improvement in the prosperity of high-quality polyester filament company Tongqun and bottle sheet leader Wan Kai Xincai is relatively clear.

综合来看，当前石油化工行业虽面临需求阶段性压力，但高油价与产能出清逻辑正为相关龙头公司创造中长期结构性机会。