近日，国际能源署署长法提赫·比罗尔表示，随着霍尔木兹海峡通行受限导致供应严重受阻，中东地区的石油供应中断将在4月进一步加剧，并开始对欧洲经济产生实质性影响。

Recently, the head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, stated that due to the restricted passage through the Strait of Hormuz, which has severely disrupted the supply, the disruption of oil supply in the Middle East will further intensify in April and begin to have a substantial impact on the European economy.

比罗尔在接受挪威主权财富基金首席执行官专访时表示，由于多批3月到港的石油和LNG船货是在局势变化前签订合同并继续发运的，因此实际石油供应中断影响在当时尚未完全显现。

Biror said in an interview with the CEO of the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund that since many of the oil and LNG shipments arriving in the port from March were contracted before the situation changed and were subsequently dispatched, the actual impact of the oil supply disruption had not yet fully manifested at that time.

但进入4月后，新发运的船货大幅减少，供应损失预计将是3月的两倍。他强调，当前最突出的问题是柴油和航空煤油的短缺。这两种中重质馏分油此前已在亚洲市场造成紧张，而欧洲将在4月或5月面临同样局面。

However, after April, the newly delivered shipments decreased significantly, and the supply loss is expected to be twice that of March. He emphasized that the most prominent problem at present is the shortage of diesel and aviation kerosene. These two heavy and medium distillate oils have already caused tension in the Asian market before, and Europe will face the same situation in April or May.

柴油短缺将直接影响货运、农业和工业生产，航空煤油不足则会冲击航空运输网络，进而推高物流成本并传导至终端消费品价格。

The shortage of diesel will directly affect freight transportation, agriculture and industrial production. Insufficient aviation kerosene will impact the aviation transportation network, thereby increasing logistics costs and passing them on to the prices of end consumer goods.

比罗尔警告，高企的能源价格将通过通胀渠道侵蚀家庭购买力，同时推高企业运营成本，从而抑制多个国家的经济增长。对于高度依赖进口燃料的欧洲经济体而言，如何在不加剧财政赤字的前提下保障民生与工业用能，将成为未来数月严峻的政策考验。

Biró warned that soaring energy prices would erode household purchasing power through inflationary channels while driving up corporate operating costs, thereby suppressing economic growth in multiple countries. For European economies highly reliant on imported fuels, balancing energy supply for both domestic needs and industrial use without exacerbating fiscal deficits will pose a severe policy challenge in the coming months.