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• 亮点

  中东战争正在造成全球石油市场历史上最大规模的供应中断。随着霍尔木兹海峡的原油和石油流量从战前约20桶/天骤降至目前涓涓细流，且可绕过关键水道的产能有限，储油量不断充盈，海湾国家已将总石油产量减少至少10桶/天。如果航运流无法迅速恢复，供应损失将会增加。The war in the Middle East is creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. With crude and oil product flows through the Strait of Hormuz plunging from around 20 mb/d before the war to a trickle currently, limited capacity available to bypass the crucial waterway, and storage filling up, Gulf countries have cut total oil production by at least 10 mb/d. In the absence of a rapid resumption of shipping flows, supply losses are set to increase.

• 预计3月份全球石油供应将暴跌8桶/天，中东地区的限制部分被非OPEC+生产国、哈萨克斯坦和俄罗斯在年初中断后产量增加所抵消。损失的程度取决于冲突持续时间和石油流量中断，我们预计2026年全球石油供应平均将增加110万吨/天，非OPEC+生产国承担了全部增长。Global oil supply is projected to plunge by 8 mb/d in March, with curtailments in the Middle East partly offset by higher output from non-OPEC+ producers, Kazakhstan and Russia following disruptions at the start of the year. While the extent of losses will depend on the duration of the conflict and disruptions to flows, we estimate global oil supply to rise by 1.1 mb/d in 2026 on average, with non-OPEC+ producers accounting for the entire increase.

  
  

• 这场冲突也对全球产品市场产生了重大影响，海峡出口几乎停滞。2025年，海湾生产商出口了330万桶/天的成品产品和1.5亿桶的液化石油气。该地区因攻击和缺乏可行出口渠道，已关闭超过3百万桶/日的炼油产能。由于原料供应，其他地区的生产将越来越有限。The conflict is also having a significant impact on global product markets, with export flows through the Strait at a near standstill. Gulf producers exported 3.3 mb/d of refined products and 1.5 mb/d of LPG in 2025. More than 3 mb/d of refining capacity in the region has already shut due to attacks and a lack of viable export outlets. Runs elsewhere will be increasingly limited due to feedstock availability.

  
  

• IEA成员国于3月11日一致同意，将其紧急储备中的400毫巴石油向市场提供，以应对中东战争引发的中断。全球观察到的石油库存在一月份为8,210百万吨，为自2021年2月以来的最高水平。经合组织占50%，中国原油库存15%，水上石油25%，其余则在其他非经合组织国家。IEA Member countries unanimously agreed on 11 March to make 400 mb of oil from their emergency reserves available to the market to address disruptions stemming from the war in the Middle East. Global observed oil stocks were 8 210 mb in January, their highest level since February 2021. The OECD accounted for 50%, Chinese crude stocks 15%, oil on water 25%, with the remainder in other non-OECD countries.

  
  

  中东地区广泛的航班取消和液化石油气供应的大规模中断预计将在3月和4月使全球石油需求比此前估计减少约1桶/天。油价上涨和全球经济前景更加不稳定，进一步威胁了这一预测。全球石油消费预计2026年同比增加640千桶，比上月减少210千桶。

  Widespread flight cancellations in the Middle East and large-scale disruptions to LPG supplies are expected to curb global oil demand by around 1 mb/d during March and April compared to previous estimates. Higher oil prices and a more precarious outlook for the global economy pose further risks to the forecast. Global oil consumption is now set to increase by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 2026 – down 210 kb/d from last month.

  
  

  
  

  自2月28日美国和以色列联合对伊朗发动空袭以来，油价剧烈波动。由于该地区石油基础设施遭受袭击，供应中断，以及霍尔木兹海峡油轮停运，布伦特期货价格飙升，交易价仅接近每桶120美元。随后价格回落，撰写本文时Brent价格约为每桶92美元，当月上涨20美元。Oil prices have gyrated wildly since the United States and Israel launched joint air strikes on Iran on 28 February. Disruptions to Middle Eastern supplies due to attacks on the region’s oil infrastructure and the cessation of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz sent Brent futures soaring, trading within a whisker of $120/bbl. Prices subsequently eased with Brent around $92/bbl at the time of writing – up $20/bbl for the month.

• 危急局面

  全球石油市场正应对中东战争带来的后果。除了对该地区能源基础设施的直接破坏外，危机还导致霍尔木兹海峡油轮的航行几乎停滞。目前，近20桶原油和产品出口受阻，且全球生产商和消费者面临压力，难以绕过全球最关键的石油运输瓶颈。自2月28日战争爆发以来，基准原油价格上涨20美元/桶，至92美元/桶，且各产品市场涨幅更大。The global oil market is contending with the ramifications of the war in the Middle East. Beyond the direct damage to energy infrastructure in the region, the crisis has led to a near halt in tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz. With nearly 20 mb/d of crude and product exports currently disrupted and limited alternative options to bypass the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoint, producers and consumers globally are feeling the strain. Benchmark crude oil prices have surged by $20/bbl to $92/bbl since the outbreak of hostilities on 28 February, with even bigger increases across product markets.

  
  

• 目前港口几乎没有船只能够或愿意装载货物，国内储罐也在不断充盈，该地区的生产商正在减少或关闭生产。虽然地面局势迅速变化且有时不透明，但我们估计原油产量正被削减至少8百万桶/天，另有2百万桶/天凝析油和NGL被封闭。伊拉克、卡塔尔、科威特、阿联酋和沙特阿拉伯的供应大幅减少。With few ships currently able or willing to load cargoes at port, and domestic storage tanks filling up, producers in the region are reducing or shutting in production. While the situation on the ground is fast evolving and at times opaque, we estimate that crude production is currently being curtailed by at least 8 mb/d, with a further 2 mb/d of condensates and NGLs shut in. Major supply reductions are seen in Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

  
  

• 中断不仅限于上游生产和出口，多家炼油厂和天然气处理设施因袭击或安全问题而关闭。海峡的关闭也迫使出口导向炼油厂减少运行甚至完全关闭，因为产品储罐不断加注，超过4兆万桶/天的炼油能力面临风险。2025年，海湾生产商出口了约330万桶/天的成品产品和1.5亿/天的液化石油气出口。虽然其他地区可能实现额外产量，但原料供应将成为限制因素。这促使一些国家实施产品出口限制。柴油和喷气燃料市场尤其容易受到中东产量和出口长期损失的影响，因为其他地区产量提升的灵活性有限。Disruptions are not limited to upstream production and exports, with several refineries and gas processing facilities shut down due to attacks or for safety concerns. The closure of the Strait is also forcing export-oriented refineries to cut runs or shut completely as product storage tanks top up, with more than 4 mb/d of refining capacity at risk. Gulf producers exported roughly 3.3 mb/d of refined products, and 1.5 mb/d of LPG in 2025. While additional throughputs in other regions are possible, feedstock availability will be a limiting factor. This has prompted some countries to implement product exports restrictions. Diesel and jet fuel markets look to be particularly vulnerable to an extended loss of Middle East production and exports, given limited flexibility elsewhere to increase output.

  
  

• 与此同时，中东主要机场航班的暂停，连锁影响了其他枢纽，实质性地减少了全球喷气燃料的需求。液化石油气和石脑油供应的急剧下降已迫使石化工厂减少聚合物生产，加剧了海湾石化矿流的流失。在印度和东非，LPG在烹饪和取暖中的使用也面临风险。更广泛地说，油价上涨和经济前景恶化已开始侵蚀各产品领域的需求。在此背景下，我们已将3月和4月全球石油需求增长预测平均降低超过100万桶/天，并将2026年整体预测下调210千桶至640千桶/天。

• Meanwhile, the suspension of flights at major airports in the Middle East, with a knock-on effect on hubs elsewhere, has materially reduced global jet fuel demand. Plunging LPG and naphtha supplies are already forcing petrochemical plants to curb their production of polymers, aggravating the loss of Gulf petrochemical flows. LPG use in cooking and heating, especially in India and East Africa, is also at risk. More broadly, higher oil prices and a deteriorating economic outlook have begun to erode demand across the product spectrum. In this context, we have reduced the forecast for global oil demand growth in March and April by more than 1 mb/d on average – and for 2026 as a whole by 210 kb/d to 640 kb/d.

  
  

  消费国储存大量石油以弥补临时供应损失。全球原油及相关产品的库存目前评估超过82亿桶，为自2021年2月以来的最高水平。其中约一半存放在经合组织国家，其中12.5亿桶由政府紧急用途持有，另有6亿桶工业库存由政府义务持有。Consumer countries have significant amounts of oil in storage to bridge temporary supply losses. Global observed inventories of crude and products are currently assessed at more than 8.2 billion barrels, the highest level since February 2021. Roughly half of these are held in OECD countries, of which 1.25 billion barrels by governments for emergency purposes, with a further 600 million barrels of industry stocks held under government obligation.

  
  

• IEA成员国于3月11日同意，向市场提供前所未有的400毫巴尔紧急储备石油，以减轻供应中断对经济的负面影响。这些额外的石油供应将根据国家情况，通过紧急库存提取或其他措施向市场提供。IEA member countries agreed on 11 March to make available an unprecedented 400 mb of oil from their emergency reserves available to the market to mitigate the negative impact on economies from the supply disruptions. These additional oil supplies will be offered to the market by implementing emergency stock draws or other measures, according to national circumstances.

  
  

• 协调的紧急库存释放提供了重要且受欢迎的缓冲，但在冲突未能迅速解决的情况下，它仍是权宜之计。冲突对石油和天然气市场及更广泛经济的最终影响，不仅取决于军事攻击的强度及能源资产的损害，更关键的是霍尔木兹海峡航运中断的持续时间。充足的保险机制和航运实物保护是恢复石油流通的关键，这对石油市场至关重要。

• The co-ordinated emergency stock release provides a significant and welcome buffer, but in the absence of a swift resolution to the conflict, it remains a stop-gap measure. The ultimate impact on oil and gas markets and the broader economy from the conflict will depend not only on the intensity of military attacks and any damage to energy assets, but also, crucially, on the duration of disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Adequate insurance mechanisms and physical protection for shipping are key to the resumption of flows, which is of paramount importance for the oil market.

OPEC+原油产量1

OPEC+ crude oil production1
每天百万桶

million barrels per day

1. 包括额外的自愿限制和修订后的额外补偿削减量。2. 容量水平可在90天内达到，并可长期维持。3. 不包括伊朗原油和俄罗斯原油。4. 伊朗、利比亚、委内瑞拉免于削减。5. 墨西哥被排除在OPEC+合规之外。6. 巴林、文莱、马来西亚、苏丹和南苏丹。

1. Includes extra voluntary curbs and revised, additional compensation cutback volumes. 2. Capacity levels can be reached within 90 days and sustained for an extended period. 3. Excludes shut in Iranian, Russian crude. 4. Iran, Libya, Venezuela exempt from cuts. 5. Mexico excluded from OPEC+ compliance. 6. Bahrain, Brunei, Malaysia, Sudan and South Sudan.