国际能源署12日发布最新月度石油报告说，受霍尔木兹海峡持续封锁和燃料价格高企影响，全球石油消费继续受到抑制，预计2026年全球石油需求将日均减少160万桶，较上月报告预测的降幅扩大51万桶，2027年全球石油需求有望日均增加240万桶。

The International Energy Agency released its latest monthly oil report on the 12th, stating that due to the continuous blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and high fuel prices, global oil consumption continues to be restrained. It is expected that global oil demand will decrease by an average of 1.6 million barrels per day in 2026, a 510,000-barrel increase compared to the prediction in the previous report. Global oil demand is expected to increase by an average of 2.4 million barrels per day in 2027.

报告指出，7月海湾地区石油供应复苏势头随中东形势逆转，基准原油价格一度升至两个月高点。受冲突重燃及外交局势骤变影响，油价在约40美元的宽幅区间内剧烈震荡。

The report indicates that in July, the recovery momentum of oil supply in the Gulf region reversed with the change in the situation in the Middle East. The benchmark crude oil price rose to a two-month high. Affected by the resurgence of conflicts and sudden changes in diplomatic situations, the oil price fluctuated sharply within a wide range of approximately $40.

供应方面，7月全球石油供应量日均增加240万桶，达到1.015亿桶，但仍较去年同期低630万桶。报告预计，2026年全球石油供应量将日均减少430万桶，2027年则有望反弹，日均增加830万桶，达到1.103亿桶。

In terms of supply, the global oil supply increased by an average of 2.4 million barrels per day in July, reaching 101.5 million barrels. However, it was still 6.3 million barrels lower than the same period last year. The report predicts that the global oil supply will decrease by an average of 4.3 million barrels per day in 2026, and is expected to rebound in 2027, increasing by an average of 8.3 million barrels per day to reach 110.3 million barrels.

库存方面，报告说，7月全球可观测石油库存减少6900万桶，主要原因是海湾和里海地区石油出口再次中断，海上运输中石油数量大幅下降。

In terms of inventory, the report states that global observable oil stocks decreased by 69 million barrels in July. The main reason for this was the recurrence of oil export disruptions in the Gulf and Caspian Sea regions, as well as a significant drop in the volume of oil transported by sea.

报告预计，2026年第三季度全球石油市场将出现日均180万桶的供需缺口，较上月约80万桶的预估值扩大逾一倍。尽管市场有望在年底前重新转为供过于求，但风险依然较高。国际能源署警告称，随着现有库存缓冲迅速消耗，尽快恢复霍尔木兹海峡通航的紧迫性正进一步上升。

The report predicts that in the third quarter of 2026, there will be a daily supply-demand gap of 1.8 million barrels in the global oil market, which is more than double the previous estimate of about 800,000 barrels. Although the market is expected to return to a supply surplus by the end of the year, the risks remain high. The International Energy Agency warns that as the existing inventory buffers are rapidly depleted, the urgency for restoring navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is increasing further.