随着中东地区军事冲突的骤然升级，全球能源供应链正面临严峻挑战，动力煤价格受此影响已飙升至一年多以来的最高水平。9日，亚洲基准纽卡斯尔煤炭期货价格大幅跳涨约9.3%，触及每吨150美元关口，刷新了自2024年11月以来的最高纪录;与此同时，欧洲市场反应同样剧烈，鹿特丹煤炭价格于3 月 2 日上涨约13%至每吨119.50美元，创下52周新高。

With the sudden escalation of military conflicts in the Middle East, the global energy supply chain is facing severe challenges. The price of thermal coal has been affected and has soared to its highest level in over a year. On the 9th, the benchmark Newcastle coal futures price in Asia rose sharply by approximately 9.3%, reaching the $150 per ton mark, breaking the highest record since November 2024. At the same time, the European market reacted strongly as well. The price of coal in Rotterdam rose by about 13% to $119.50 per ton on March 2nd, reaching a 52-week high.

引发此次价格波动的主要诱因是中东关键天然气基础设施的供应中断。由于伊朗在该地区的军事行动，占全球液化天然气供应量约20%的卡塔尔被迫关闭了其最大的拉斯拉凡液化天然气出口设施，这是该设施运行30年来的首次完全停产。这一状况促使买家积极探寻替代方案，若停运持续时间过长，他们将考量是否提升燃煤电厂的发电量。

The main cause of this price fluctuation is the supply disruption of key natural gas infrastructure in the Middle East. Due to Iran's military operations in the region, Qatar, which accounts for approximately 20% of the global liquefied natural gas supply, was forced to shut down its largest Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas export facility. This was the first complete shutdown of the facility in its 30-year operation. This situation has prompted buyers to actively seek alternative solutions. If the shutdown lasts for an extended period, they will consider whether to increase the power generation capacity of coal-fired power plants.

霍尔木兹海峡事实上的运输受阻，导致原本紧张的天然气市场雪上加霜，天然气价格在短期内翻倍跳涨。这种极端的溢价迫使全球电力部门，特别是高度依赖进口能源的东亚与欧盟国家，迅速启动“燃料转换”策略，将发电需求从昂贵且稀缺的天然气转向煤炭，从而在需求端形成了强力支撑。

The actual transportation in the Strait of Hormuz has been severely disrupted, exacerbating the already tense natural gas market. As a result, the price of natural gas has skyrocketed by double within a short period of time. This extreme premium has compelled the global power sector, especially the East Asian and European countries that heavily rely on imported energy, to promptly implement the "fuel conversion" strategy, shifting their power generation demands from expensive and scarce natural gas to coal, thereby providing a strong support at the demand end.

在需求侧激增的同时，供应端的紧缩预期也为煤炭价格的上涨起到了推波助澜的作用。作为全球最大动力煤出口国的印度尼西亚，近期提出计划削减2026年的生产目标，这一消息在当前动荡的局势下显著加剧了市场对长期供应能力的担忧。

At the same time as the demand side experienced a sharp increase, the expected contraction on the supply side also contributed to the rise in coal prices. As the world's largest exporter of thermal coal, Indonesia recently announced plans to reduce its production target for 2026. This news has significantly exacerbated market concerns about the long-term supply capacity in the current volatile situation.

分析人士指出，这是继2022年俄乌冲突以来全球煤炭市场遭遇的最大一次外部冲击，考虑到目前能源缺口短期内难以填补，市场看涨情绪依然浓厚，预计高波动、高价位的态势将在局势明朗化之前持续存在。

Analysts point out that this is the biggest external shock that the global coal market has encountered since the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict. Given that the current energy gap is unlikely to be filled in the short term, the bullish sentiment in the market remains strong. It is expected that the situation of high volatility and high prices will persist until the situation becomes clearer.

值得一提的是，因海湾产油国减产，原油价格也飙升至接近每桶120美元。天然气价格同样攀升。周一欧洲天然气涨幅高达30%，而亚洲现货价格过去一周已翻倍，目前仍处高位。

It is worth noting that due to the production cuts by the oil-producing countries in the Gulf, the price of crude oil has soared to nearly $120 per barrel. The price of natural gas has also risen. On Monday, the increase in European natural gas prices was as high as 30%, and the spot price in Asia has doubled over the past week and is still at a high level.