尽管账面上存在近60亿桶商业库存，但沙特阿美等行业巨头明确指出，扣除维持基建运转的底油后，可快速动用的库存已不足10%……

Although there are nearly 6 billion barrels of commercial inventory on the books, industry giants such as Saudi Aramco have clearly stated that after deducting the residual oil needed to maintain infrastructure operations, the available inventory that can be quickly mobilized is less than 10%.

全球石油市场用于应对供应中断的库存缓冲正在迅速缩小。在中东和俄乌冲突持续扰乱原油与成品油供应之际，各国政府和能源企业今年已经大规模释放库存。多名行业高管警告，账面上仍然存在的石油库存中，真正能够迅速投入全球市场的部分已经非常有限。

The inventory buffers used by the global oil market to cope with supply disruptions are rapidly shrinking. Amid the ongoing disruptions in crude oil and refined oil supplies due to the conflicts in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine, governments and energy companies around the world have released large amounts of inventories this year. Several industry executives have warned that among the remaining oil inventories on the books, the portion that can be quickly put into global markets is already very limited.

沙特阿美首席执行官阿明·纳赛尔（Amin Nasser）在伦敦能源情报论坛表示，目前全球商业石油库存不足60亿桶，而且“绝大部分实际上无法动用”，整个体系已经处于紧张状态。

Amin Nasser, the CEO of Saudi Aramco, stated at the London Energy Intelligence Forum that the current global commercial oil inventory is less than 6 billion barrels, and "the vast majority of it is actually unusable". The entire system is already in a state of tension.

他说，自今年中东危机爆发以来，市场主要从陆上商业库存中释放了超过10亿桶石油，而这原本是应对供应冲击的重要缓冲。与此同时，自冲突开始以来累计损失的原油和成品油供应接近30亿桶。

He said that since the outbreak of the Middle East crisis this year, the market has released more than 1 billion barrels of oil from onshore commercial inventories. This was originally an important buffer to deal with supply shocks. At the same time, the cumulative loss of crude oil and refined oil supplies since the conflict began has reached nearly 3 billion barrels.

“库存”并非可随时供应市场

"Inventory" is not available for immediate supply to the market.

行业高管此次警告的重点，并不是全球石油库存即将物理意义上“归零”，而是其中可以迅速调入市场、填补供应缺口的机动库存所剩无几。

The main point of the warning issued by industry executives this time is not that global oil inventories are about to "zero out" in a physical sense, but that the flexible stocks that can be quickly moved into the market to fill the supply gap are running out.

部分石油必须维持在储罐底部或管道系统中，以保证基础设施正常运行；政府战略库存也往往受到最低储备要求和法律规定限制，无法全部释放。

Part of the oil must be kept at the bottom of the storage tanks or in the pipeline system to ensure the normal operation of the infrastructure; government strategic reserves are also often restricted by minimum reserve requirements and legal regulations, and cannot be fully released.

纳赛尔估计，现有库存中真正具有可操作性的比例可能只有10%甚至更低。

Nasser estimates that the proportion of the existing inventory that is truly operational may be only 10% or even less.

雪佛龙首席执行官迈克·沃思（Mike Wirth）表示，库存缓冲减少已经使石油市场变得更加脆弱，也抬高了油价在供应受到扰动时的底部水平。

Chevron's CEO Mike Wirth stated that the reduction in inventory buffers has made the oil market more vulnerable and has also raised the bottom level of oil prices when supply is disrupted.

维多集团（Vitol）首席执行官拉塞尔·哈迪（Russell Hardy）则称，今年冬季全球市场将越来越依赖从中东成功运出的海运原油，因为西方市场已经没有太多库存可以继续消耗。

Russell Hardy, the CEO of Vitol, said that this winter the global market will increasingly rely on the seaborne crude oil successfully transported from the Middle East, as there is not much inventory left in the Western markets to continue consuming.

G7再释放1亿桶油，但规模仅约相当于全球一天需求

The G7 has released an additional 100 million barrels of oil, but the scale is only approximately equivalent to the global demand for just one day.

库存压力之下，七国集团上周同意进一步释放1亿桶柴油和原油，以缓解成品油短缺和高价格压力。

Under the pressure of inventory shortages, the G7 countries agreed last week to release an additional 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil to alleviate the shortage and high prices of refined oil products.

国际能源署预计将在10月14日至15日举行的理事会会议上确定具体执行方案，包括原油、柴油和其他成品油各自释放多少，以及哪些成员国参与。意大利预计将参与此次行动。

The International Energy Agency is expected to finalize the specific implementation plan at the council meeting to be held on October 14th and 15th, including the amount of crude oil, diesel and other refined oil products to be released by each country, as well as which member countries will participate. Italy is expected to be involved in this operation.

不过，1亿桶相对于全球消费规模并不算大。根据国际能源署数据，全球石油需求约为1.02亿桶/日。这意味着此次计划释放的全部库存，即使全部新增进入市场，总量也不到全球一天的消费量。

However, 100 million barrels is not a large amount compared to the global consumption scale. According to data from the International Energy Agency, global oil demand is approximately 102 million barrels per day. This means that even if all the inventory to be released is newly added to the market, the total amount would still be less than the global consumption for a single day.

此外，目前仍不清楚这1亿桶是否包括3月创纪录释放的4亿桶应急库存中尚未实际进入市场的部分。

Furthermore, it is still unclear whether these 100 million barrels include the portion of the 400 million barrels of emergency reserves that were released in March but have not yet entered the market.

哈迪表示，目前市场仍无法确定此次释放具体涉及哪些地区和品种，未来两周各国相关招标陆续公布后，实际数量和地点才会更加清晰。

Hardy stated that currently, the market is still unable to determine exactly which regions and varieties will be involved in this release. After the relevant tenders from various countries are announced in the next two weeks, the actual quantity and location will become clearer.

美国自身的战略储备空间也已经明显下降。美国能源部数据显示，美国战略石油储备中的原油库存目前处于1982年10月以来最低水平。

The strategic reserve capacity of the United States itself has also significantly decreased. According to data from the US Department of Energy, the current crude oil inventory in the US strategic petroleum reserve is at its lowest level since 1982.

补回库存可能需要两年

It might take two years to replenish the inventory.

更大的问题在于，即使中东供应中断逐步缓解，全球库存也难以迅速恢复。

The bigger problem is that even if the supply disruptions in the Middle East gradually ease, it will be difficult for global inventories to recover quickly.

纳赛尔此前表示，在霍尔木兹海峡完全恢复正常、市场信心重新建立之后，全球还需要同时满足日常石油需求和补库存需求，这一过程可能需要长达两年。

Nasser previously stated that after the Strait of Hormuz fully returns to normal and market confidence is restored, the global market will still need to simultaneously meet both daily oil demand and inventory replenishment needs. This process may take up to two years.

他认为，在海峡完全重新开放之前，原油和成品油两个市场的供应压力仍可能进一步加剧。这意味着，库存释放虽然能够暂时平抑供应缺口，却把未来市场可用于应对下一次突发事件的缓冲进一步压缩。

He believes that before the strait is fully reopened, the supply pressure in both the crude oil and refined oil markets is likely to further intensify. This means that although the release of inventories can temporarily alleviate the supply gap, it further reduces the buffer available in the future market to deal with the next emergency.

今年全球能源市场已经连续遭遇多重冲击：美伊冲突严重干扰霍尔木兹海峡航运，俄乌双方持续攻击炼油和能源基础设施，俄罗斯又限制柴油出口，也门胡塞武装与沙特支持的也门政府军的冲突则使曼德海峡及红海运输面临新的风险。

This year, the global energy market has suffered multiple shocks in succession: The conflict between the United States and Iran severely disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Both the Russian and Ukrainian sides continued to attack oil refining and energy infrastructure. Russia also restricted diesel exports. The conflict between the Houthi rebels in Yemen and the Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces has brought new risks to shipping in the Manda Strait and the Red Sea.

在库存充足时期，额外供应中断可以通过释放商业或战略储备消化；库存下降后，相同规模的供应损失更容易直接传导至现货价格。

During periods of abundant inventory, additional supply disruptions can be absorbed by releasing commercial or strategic reserves; after inventory levels decline, the same scale of supply loss is more likely to be directly transmitted to the spot price.

当前中东仍有大量原油能够通过海运进入市场，因此油价尚未出现更极端的上涨。但行业高管的担忧正在转向下一阶段：如果供应再次遭遇重大冲击，全球可用于快速填补缺口的库存工具已经远少于今年年初。

At present, a large amount of crude oil in the Middle East can still be transported to the market by sea, so the oil price has not experienced a more extreme increase. However, the concerns of industry executives are shifting to the next stage: if there is another major supply shock, the global inventory tools available to quickly fill the gap are far fewer than at the beginning of this year.

石油之外，天然气库存也在下降。马来西亚国家石油公司首席执行官Tengku Muhammad Taufik警告，如果北半球遭遇寒冬，欧洲等地区库存降至最低水平，2027年第一季度全球天然气市场可能出现剧烈价格波动。

Apart from oil, natural gas inventories are also declining. The CEO of Malaysia National Oil Corporation, Tengku Muhammad Taufik, warned that if the Northern Hemisphere experiences a severe winter and the inventories in regions such as Europe reach their lowest levels, there could be significant price fluctuations in the global natural gas market in the first quarter of 2027.