调研总结：

Research Summary:

本次调研覆盖太原、吕梁、临汾、运城、晋城、长治等山西核心产煤区域，实地走访煤矿、洗煤厂、贸易商、焦化厂及钢厂等全产业链主体。调研结果显示，此次沁源矿难触发的全省煤矿停产整治，本质是行业合规化升级背景下违法产能的永久性出清，而非短期性安全扰动;焦煤供给中枢已出现系统性下移，中长期供需紧平衡格局难以根本扭转，价格中枢抬升具备较强确定性。

This survey covered the core coal-producing areas of Shanxi Province, including Taiyuan, Luliang, Linfen, Yuncheng, Jincheng and Changzhi. It conducted on-site visits to coal mines, coal washing plants, traders, coking plants and steel mills, covering all entities along the entire industrial chain. The survey results showed that the suspension and rectification of coal mines across the province triggered by the Qin Yuan coal mine accident was essentially the permanent elimination of illegal production capacity under the background of industry compliance upgrade, rather than a short-term safety disturbance; the supply center of coking coal has already experienced a systematic downward shift, and the tight balance between supply and demand in the medium and long term is difficult to fundamentally change, and the upward movement of the price center is highly certain.

一、供给端：产能收缩具备永久性，复产不复量是核心基调

I. Supply-side: The capacity contraction is permanent, and the resumption of production will not lead to an increase in output, which is the core principle.

1.违法产能彻底出清，供给天花板固化

1.All illegal production capacity has been completely eliminated, and the supply ceiling has been firmly established.

本次整治针对井下超员、隐蔽工作面、超产等违法行为，而非普通安全事故，不存在“整改即复产” 的修复路径。此前山西煤矿普遍存在30%~40%的隐蔽超产产能，该部分产能在严监管下将永久退出市场。当前监管层通过用电量、水量、税票、井下5G监控等多维度精准管控，超产路径已基本堵死，合规产能成为产量硬上限。

This rectification focuses on illegal acts such as overstaffing underground, concealed working faces, and overproduction, rather than ordinary safety accidents. There is no "rectification followed by resumption of production" recovery path. Previously, there was a widespread 30% to 40% concealed overproduction capacity in Shanxi coal mines. This portion of capacity will permanently exit the market under strict supervision. Currently, the regulatory authorities have implemented precise control through multiple dimensions such as electricity consumption, water usage, tax invoices, and underground 5G monitoring. The overproduction path has been largely blocked, and compliant production capacity has become the hard upper limit for output.

2.复产意愿普遍低迷，供给恢复周期拉长

2. The willingness to resume production is generally low, and the recovery period for supply has been prolonged.

地方安监执行“终身追责制”，叠加山西官场调整后安全优先级远高于保供，监管层签字复产极为谨慎;民营矿主担忧历史问题追溯，主动减产甚至停产退出;国企缺乏增产激励，生产积极性偏弱。长治、吕梁、晋中等主产区矿井实际减产幅度达30%~60%，即便通过验收复产，产量也难以回到矿难前水平。整体产能恢复周期将以“年度”为单位，2026年乃至2027年产量都难回到前期高位。

Local safety supervision authorities have implemented a "lifetime accountability system". After the adjustment of the official system in Shanxi Province, safety has been given a higher priority than ensuring supply. The regulatory authorities are extremely cautious when approving the resumption of production. Private mine owners are worried about the retrospective investigation of historical issues and have voluntarily reduced production or even shut down and withdrawn. State-owned enterprises lack incentives for increased production, and their production enthusiasm is relatively low. In the major production areas such as Changzhi, Luliang, and Jinzhong, the actual reduction in mine production has reached 30% to 60%. Even if the mines pass the inspection and resume production, the output is unlikely to return to the level before the mine disaster. The overall recovery period of production capacity will be measured in "years", and the output in 2026 and even 2027 will be difficult to return to the previous high level.

3.主焦煤替代缺位，增量空间极其有限

3. The main coking coal has been replaced, leaving very limited room for growth.

当前紧缺品种为主焦煤，新疆煤等品种无法形成有效替代，政策层面暂未出台保供增产相关部署。核增产能方面，2021年已完成大规模核增，政策周期内暂无二次核增空间;仅“井工改露天” 存在边际增量可能，但覆盖范围极小，对整体供给影响有限。

The currently in-shortage products are coking coal and Xinjiang coal. These products cannot effectively replace each other, and no relevant deployment for ensuring supply and increasing production has been made at the policy level. Regarding capacity increase, a large-scale increase was completed in 2021, and there is no room for a second increase within the policy period. Only the "mining-to-extraction" conversion may bring marginal increments, but the coverage is extremely limited and has a limited impact on the overall supply.

二、库存与市场结构：隐形库存深度去化，市场定价逻辑重塑

II. Inventory and Market Structure: Deep Discharge of Hidden Inventory, Reconfiguration of Market Pricing Logic

1.中间缓冲库存干涸，价格弹性显著放大

1.The intermediate buffer inventory dried up, significantly amplifying the price elasticity.

洗煤厂、贸易商等流通环节的隐形库存已基本去化，市场“蓄水池” 效应消失，供需缺口直接显性化，现货价格对边际供需变动的敏感度大幅提升，波动幅度加剧。

The hidden inventories in circulation links such as coal washing plants and traders have basically been eliminated. The "water storage" effect of the market has vanished. The supply-demand gap has become directly visible. The sensitivity of spot prices to marginal changes in supply and demand has significantly increased, and the fluctuation range has also widened.

2.贸易环节逐步退场，定价权向矿端倾斜

2. The trading process gradually withdraws, and the pricing power shifts towards the mining sector.

现货价格大幅上涨后，中间贸易商采购成本高企，补库意愿持续走弱，逐步退出流通环节;市场结构逐渐从“贸易商缓冲”转向“矿方与终端直接博弈”，供应端定价权进一步增强。

After the spot prices rose sharply, the procurement costs for middle traders soared, and their willingness to replenish stocks continued to weaken. They gradually withdrew from the circulation. The market structure gradually shifted from "buffering by traders" to "direct competition between miners and end-users"， and the pricing power of the supply side further strengthened.

3.库存结构分化明显，有效供给依然偏紧

3. The inventory structure shows significant differentiation, and the effective supply remains tight.

下游焦化厂库存呈现两极分化，低库存企业补库难度较大;港口库存结构分化，俄煤等难以交割的品种形成“无效库存”，可流通的澳煤等有效库存偏低;蒙煤口岸库存处于低位，长协及招标合同已排至11月底，即便通关量回升至1200车也难以形成累库。

The inventory levels of downstream coking plants show a two-sided distribution. Enterprises with low inventories have difficulty replenishing their stocks; the inventory structure at ports is differentiated. Russian coal and other non-deliverable varieties have become "ineffective inventory", while the available Australian coal and other effective inventory is relatively low; the inventory at the Mongolian coal ports is at a low level. Long-term contracts and bidding contracts have been arranged until the end of November. Even if the customs clearance volume rises to 1,200 trucks, it is still difficult to form a stockpile accumulation.

三、价格走势：短期高位震荡，中长期中枢系统性抬升

III. Price Trend: Short-term fluctuation at a high level, with a systematic upward shift in the medium and long-term trend.

1.短期：供需缺口边际收窄，盘面高位震荡

1.Short-term: The marginal gap between supply and demand narrows, and the market fluctuates at a high level.

蒙煤通关边际修复(但难回1400车高位)、9月海煤进口环比增量约150万吨以上、钢厂利润承压下铁水存在减产预期，推动焦煤供需缺口边际收窄，盘面短期存在回调压力。但矿端库存普遍低位、供给恢复节奏持续偏慢，价格大幅下跌缺乏基本面支撑，整体维持大区间震荡格局。

The marginal recovery of coal clearance through the port (though it cannot return to the 1400-truck peak level) has occurred, with the import volume of sea-coal in September increasing by approximately 15 million tons or more compared to the previous month. Under the pressure on steel mills' profits, there is an expectation of a reduction in iron water production. This has led to a marginal narrowing of the supply-demand gap for coking coal, and the market may experience short-term downward pressure. However, the inventories at the mines are generally at a low level, and the pace of supply recovery remains persistently slow. There is a lack of fundamental support for a significant price decline. Overall, the market will maintain a large range of oscillation.

2.中期：四季度紧平衡强化，仍有上行驱动

2. Mid-term: The tight balance in the fourth quarter is further strengthened, with upward momentum still present.

进入四季度后，冬储补库需求逐步启动，叠加煤矿年度合规产能额度见底、安监高压持续，供需紧平衡格局将再度收紧，价格仍有上行动能。

As the fourth quarter approaches, the demand for winter storage and replenishment gradually kicks into gear. Coupled with the depletion of the annual compliant production capacity quota for coal mines and the continuous pressure from safety supervision, the tight balance between supply and demand will once again tighten, and prices still have the potential for an upward movement.

3.长期：产能天花板固化，价格中枢永久抬升

3. Long-term: The production capacity ceiling becomes fixed, and the price center permanently rises.

违法超产产能永久退出、合规产能管控常态化，而煤矿产能核增落地、新增技术设备投资与生产人员团队的重新搭建，均需要较长的建设与磨合周期，焦煤供给中枢已系统性下移，价格中枢将长期高于矿难前水平，难以回到此前低位。

Illegal overproduction capacity will be permanently phased out, and compliant production capacity will be managed on a regular basis. Meanwhile, the increase in coal mine production capacity, the implementation of new technological equipment investment, and the re-establishment of the production personnel team all require a relatively long construction and adjustment period. The supply center of coking coal has systematically moved downward, and the price center will remain consistently higher than the level before the mine disaster, making it difficult to return to the previous low level.

四、产业链传导：焦炭提涨进入尾声，成材利润存修复预期

IV. Industry Chain Transmission: The increase in coke prices is nearing its end, and there is an expectation for the profit of finished products to recover.

1.焦炭端：提涨周期接近尾声，节后存回落可能

1.Coke end: The upward trend period is coming to an end, and there may be a decline after the holiday.

前期焦化厂减产倒逼的焦炭提涨已落地多轮，预计第六轮提涨幅度收窄至50-55元/吨，钢厂端利润承压抵触情绪增强;国庆前终端补库需求支撑下或可落地，10月中旬后若铁水产量加速回落，焦炭存在1-2 轮提降可能，单轮提降幅度在110-160元/吨(干熄)。

The price increase of coke, which was forced by the previous reduction in production at the coking plant, has been implemented in multiple rounds. It is expected that the sixth round of increase will be reduced to 50-55 yuan per ton. The pressure on the profit of steel mills has intensified, and the resistance sentiment has strengthened. With the demand for terminal replenishment before the National Day, it may be implemented. After mid-October, if the iron water production accelerates to decline, coke may have 1-2 rounds of price reduction, with each round's reduction range being 110-160 yuan per ton (dry quenching).

2.成材端：成本压制利润亏损，盘面利润存修复空间

2. Output End: Costs are squeezing profits, and there is room for profit recovery in the market.

原料成本持续上行已推动钢厂进入亏损区间，旺季背景下高炉检修概率偏低，但若亏损持续加深将触发主动减产;钢材库存已较7-8月明显去化，需求边际改善，多成材、空原料的盘面利润套利策略具备基本面支撑。

The continuous rise in raw material costs has pushed steel mills into a loss-making zone. Under the backdrop of the peak season, the probability of blast furnace maintenance is relatively low. However, if the losses continue to deepen, it will trigger active production cuts. The steel inventory has significantly decreased compared to July and August. Demand has marginally improved. The arbitrage strategies of buying multiple finished products and selling raw materials have fundamental support.

附调研纪要：

Attached is the research summary:

企业A

Enterprise A

1.复产观点

1.Viewpoint on resuming production

对山西炼焦煤产能恢复持极度悲观态度，山西此次减产是以“年度”为单位的行业性收缩，今年甚至明年产量都难以恢复。事件性质严重(违法而非普通事故)：本次矿难涉及井下人员超员、人证分离、超产等违法行为。违法事件与单纯的安全事故不同，没有“整改后复产”的路径，违法产能(超产部分)永远无法回到明面。事故处理周期长：参考2023年11月永聚煤业火灾(死亡26人)，调查报告历时5个月才出台，产量恢复用了半年。本次事故更大，按流程最快10月才能盖棺定论，恢复周期更长。很多矿井(如120万吨以上产能)实际生产依赖“隐蔽工作面”或超能力生产。只要严打违法，这部分量就永远消失。当前缺乏增产路径(如2024年曾允许月度超产10%，现在连国企都按月考核，税票、水电等全链条监控)。

There is an extremely pessimistic attitude towards the recovery of the coal production capacity in Shanxi. This reduction in production in Shanxi is an industry-wide contraction on an "annual" basis. The production this year and even next year is unlikely to recover. The nature of the incident is serious (illegal rather than an ordinary accident): This mining accident involves illegal acts such as overstaffing underground, separation of witnesses, and overproduction. Illegal incidents are different from simple safety accidents. There is no "resumption after rectification" path. The illegal production capacity (the overproduced part) will never return to the open market. The handling of the accident takes a long time: Refer to the fire at Yongju Coal Industry in November 2023 (26 deaths), the investigation report took 5 months to be released, and it took half a year to restore production. This accident is even larger. According to the process, it will take at least October to reach a final conclusion, and the recovery period is even longer. Many mines (such as those with a production capacity of over 1.2 million tons) actually rely on "hidden working faces" or over-capacity production. As long as illegal activities are strictly cracked down on, this volume will disappear forever. Currently, there is a lack of an increase production path (such as in 2024 when a monthly overproduction of 10% was allowed, now even state-owned enterprises are subject to monthly assessment, and the entire chain of tax tickets, water and electricity, etc. is monitored).

2.目前政策监管与执行细节

2. Current policy supervision and implementation details

政策数量多但执行严：5月矿难至今，国家及山西省已出台数十条监管政策。目前执行层面非常严格：国企按月度考核(月度产量不能超过10%);税票监管：如核定产能90万吨，若上半年开出60万吨税票，下半年就会收紧;三电合一(电、水、税)数据匹配核查。增产路径基本堵死：核增产能，2021年山西、陕西已大规模核增过一轮，文件规定核增后三年内不能再核增，且多数矿井已无潜力。唯一可能路径：未来山西可能出台“井工改露天”政策(类似过去产能置换)，但仅限部分条件适合的矿井，且比例很小。

A large number of policies but strict implementation: Since the May mining accident, the state and Shanxi Province have issued dozens of regulatory policies. Currently, the implementation is very strict: State-owned enterprises are subject to monthly performance eva luations (monthly output cannot exceed 10%); tax ticket supervision: If the approved production capacity is 900,000 tons and 600,000 tons of tax tickets were issued in the first half of the year, the restrictions will be tightened in the second half; integration of electricity, water, and taxes (electricity, water, and taxes) data matching verification. The path for increasing production is basically blocked: increasing production capacity, Shanxi and Shaanxi have carried out large-scale capacity increase rounds in 2021, and the regulations stipulate that capacity increase cannot be carried out again within three years after the increase, and most mines have no potential. The only possible path: In the future, Shanxi may introduce the "mine-to-open-pit" policy (similar to past capacity replacement), but it is only applicable to some mines that meet certain conditions, and the proportion is very small.

3.政策预期

3. Policy Expectations

“保供”政策短期难出台：当前缺的是骨架煤(主焦煤)，而非动力煤;新疆煤外运有缺陷(强度不够)，山西煤无法简单替代。国企、民企在合规性上差异大：民企多因不合规直接停产，国企多为流程性不合规，但生产与销售分离，生产端缺乏超产动力。

The "supply guarantee" policy is unlikely to be implemented in the short term: Currently, what is lacking is coking coal (main bituminous coal), rather than thermal coal; there are flaws in the transportation of coal from Xinjiang (insufficient strength), and Shanxi coal cannot simply replace it. There are significant differences in compliance between state-owned enterprises and private enterprises: Private enterprises often directly halt production due to non-compliance, while state-owned enterprises mostly have non-compliance in the process, but their production and sales are separated, and the production end lacks the motivation for overproduction.

4.后市观点

4. Future Market Outlook

焦化厂减产(压产30%或20%)导致焦炭供应收缩，但铁水产量未降，钢材需求持稳，因此焦炭存在硬性缺口。逻辑推演：焦化减产→焦炭不足→提涨(如6轮)→焦化有利润后增产→若铁水仍高，焦炭依然不够，价格终将上行。中间波动只影响节奏，两头(铁水、焦炭)不够，最终结果还是上涨。短期或进入大区间震荡，往上需要更强驱动(如真实复产不及预期、新缺口出现)，往下也缺新利空(基本面数据良好)。操作上，急跌砸坑后反而是做多机会，不宜在高位追多。

The reduction in production at the coking plant (by 30% or 20%) has led to a contraction in the supply of coke, but the output of molten iron has not decreased, and the demand for steel remains stable. Therefore, there is a hard shortage of coke. Logical deduction: Coking plant reduction in production → Insufficient coke supply → Price increase (such as 6 rounds) → After the coking plant starts to make profits, it increases production → If the output of molten iron remains high, coke will still be insufficient, and the price will eventually rise. The fluctuations in the middle only affect the pace. At both ends (molten iron and coke), if they are insufficient, the final result will still be an increase. In the short term, it may enter a large range of oscillation. An upward movement requires stronger driving force (such as actual resumption of production not meeting expectations, or the emergence of a new gap), and a downward movement also lacks new negative factors (good fundamental data). In terms of operation, after a sharp decline and hitting the bottom, it is actually an opportunity to go long. It is not advisable to chase the long position at a high level.

企业B

Enterprise B

超采管控：现在煤矿超产已非常困难。通过用电量(电业局管控，上下浮动5%)、人工工资、机械设备等数据化手段，可精准锁死开采量。井下已普及5G，隐蔽工作面大藏无可藏。地域差异：柳林地区煤矿相对正规，基本无私采;介休、离石、中阳等地过去存在较多隐蔽工作面，但目前监管极严。吕梁地区部分煤矿处于长期停产或出售矿权状态(内部矛盾)。

Overproduction control: Currently, it is extremely difficult to increase production in coal mines. By using data-based methods such as electricity consumption (controlled by the power bureau, with a fluctuation of 5%), labor wages, and mechanical equipment, the mining volume can be precisely locked down. 5G has been widely adopted underground, and hidden working areas are virtually impossible to hide. Regional differences: Coal mines in Liulin area are relatively standardized and mostly operate openly; Jiexiu, Lishiqiao, and Zhongyang areas used to have many hidden working areas, but current supervision is extremely strict. In Luliang area, some coal mines are in a state of long-term shutdown or have sold their mining rights (due to internal conflicts).

人员与排班：煤矿普遍畏惧安全事故，部分煤矿主动缩短开采时间(如两班制甚至一班制)。外包工队需签三方合同，安全证件必须达标。

Personnel and Shift Scheduling: Coal mines generally fear safety accidents. Some coal mines have voluntarily shortened their working hours (such as to two shifts or even one shift). Outsourced work teams need to sign tripartite contracts, and their safety certificates must meet the standards.

企业C

Enterprise C

1.山西煤矿生产现状与安监影响

1.The current situation of coal mining in Shanxi and the impact of safety supervision

矿难后关停整治至今，即便政府批了手续，煤矿老板主观上也不愿开工。主观上，当地多为个人老板，担心开工后被查出历史超产问题或遭举报，面临“人财两空”的风险。客观原因是监管严格，目前按核定产能严格考核(通风量、耗电量、财务数据等)。安监系统实行“终身追责制”，即便签字验收后升迁或调离，出事仍会被追溯。

Since the mine disaster and the subsequent shutdown and rectification, even though the government has approved the procedures, the coal mine owners are still reluctant to resume operations. Subjectively, most of the local owners are individuals and they are worried that if they start production, they will be found to have historical overproduction issues or be reported, and face the risk of losing both their livelihood and assets. The objective reason is the strict supervision. Currently, production is strictly eva luated based on the approved production capacity (ventilation volume, power consumption, financial data, etc.). The safety supervision system implements a "lifetime accountability system", even if they are promoted or transferred after signing the acceptance, they will still be held accountable for any accidents that occur.

2.产能核定与超产规模

2. Capacity Verification and Excess Production Volume

除核定产能外，隐性超产规模大。按核定产能算，市场上约30%的量属于超产(明的部分)，若加上隐性超产，比例更高。但目前机构的产能数据存在“把长期停产矿的产能也统计进去”的情况，实际对市场无影响的停产矿不在少数。

In addition to the officially determined production capacity, the scale of hidden overproduction is quite large. Based on the officially determined production capacity, approximately 30% of the supply in the market is considered as overproduction (the visible part). If we include the hidden overproduction, the proportion would be even higher. However, the current production capacity data of the institutions have the situation of "including the production capacity of long-term suspended mines", and there are quite a few mines that have actually suspended production but do not have any impact on the market.

3.焦化厂库存严重分化，补库困难，当前焦化厂库存呈现“两极分化”——原本高库存的焦化厂现在更难，低库存的则更低，且普遍“补不起来”。原因：焦化厂不愿一次性将成本拉得过高，实际掏钱买货困难;部分焦化厂因库存管理方式(如一直维持采购)得当，成本始终低于市场价，但多数企业补库乏力。

3. The inventory situation in the coking plants is highly uneven, making it difficult to replenish stocks. Currently, the inventory levels of coking plants exhibit a "two-tiered disparity" - those with originally high inventories now find it even more difficult to replenish, while those with low inventories are even lower, and in general, they are unable to replenish at all. The reasons are as follows: Coking plants are reluctant to raise costs excessively at once, and it is difficult for them to actually purchase goods with the money they have; some coking plants have proper inventory management methods (such as always maintaining purchases), so their costs remain below the market price, but most enterprises struggle to replenish stocks.

4.市场供需与价格走势研判

4. Analysis of Market Supply and Demand and Price Trends

价格回调与长期看涨。短期市场有恐高情绪，盘面出现回调，但长期(至少到过年前)看涨逻辑不变。12月可能是“最难受的时候”：冬储需求启动、全年产能额度见底(前半年已用掉大部分，后半年额度紧张)，且煤矿可能主动停产。

Price correction and long-term bullishness. The short-term market has a fear-of-heights sentiment, and the market has experienced a correction, but the long-term (at least until before the New Year) bullish logic remains unchanged. December might be the "most uncomfortable time": the winter storage demand has started, the annual production capacity quota has reached its limit (most of it has been used up in the first half of the year, and the quota is tight in the second half), and coal mines may voluntarily suspend production.

后续关注点在政策信号：关注政府是否出台硬性复产政策，或是否有“反内卷”背景下的产能出清动作。下跌信号：若市场真正转势，需看到“钢厂大规模减产”或“商品市场恐慌性下跌”，否则当前回调仅为情绪性。焦煤短缺问题短期无解，最终将传导至下游钢厂环节。

The subsequent focus lies in policy signals: Pay attention to whether the government has introduced strict resumption policies, or if there are actions for capacity reduction under the background of "anti-overcapacity". Decline signals: If the market truly turns around, it is necessary to see "large-scale production cuts by steel mills" or "panic declines in the commodity market", otherwise the current correction is merely emotional. The shortage of coking coal will not be resolved in the short term and will eventually be transmitted to the downstream steel mill环节.

企业D

Enterprise D

焦化厂严重分化,库存高的利润尚可，库存低的亏损，当地部分租赁型焦化厂比较缺煤。第五轮提涨后，点对点顶装焦仍亏70-100元/吨，但库存煤盈利可观。前期亏损时限产30%以倒逼提涨，落地后产量在逐渐恢复，捣鼓焦基本恢复至满产(公司捣鼓焦占比高)。第六轮提涨难度大，钢厂利润薄，抵触情绪强;但若国庆前钢厂有补库刚需，第六轮可能以55元/吨幅度落地。

The coking plants are severely divided. Those with high inventories still have relatively good profits, while those with low inventories suffer losses. Some local lease-based coking plants are particularly short of coal. After the fifth round of price increase, the point-to-point top-loading coking still incurs a loss of 70-100 yuan per ton, but the profit from the inventory coal is considerable. In the early stage, the production was temporarily reduced by 30% to force the price increase. After the implementation, the output is gradually recovering, and the (probably means "reconditioned coking") has basically returned to full production (the company's proportion of is high). The difficulty of the sixth round of price increase is high. The steel mills have thin profits and strong resistance. However， if the steel mills have the need for replenishing inventory before the National Day， the sixth round may be implemented at a price increase of 55 yuan per ton.

厂内原料库存矿难后从15天增至20天，最低的时候是10天，8月初从15天库存增至20天，现在计划降库存。

The raw material inventory in the factory has increased from 15 days to 20 days after the mine accident. The lowest point was 10 days. In early August, the inventory increased from 15 days to 20 days. Currently, the plan is to reduce the inventory.

钢厂焦炭库存紧缺情况从上周开始有所缓解，补库节奏预期会缓一缓。

The shortage of coke inventory in steel mills has begun to ease since last week, and the pace of replenishment is expected to slow down.

行情判断：最紧张时刻可能已过，短期有回调压力，但大幅下跌需贸易商集中抛货，而当前矿上、贸易商库存均低，不具备趋势性下跌条件。四季度若安监不放松，行情仍有期待。

Market analysis: The most tense period may have passed. There is short-term pressure for a correction, but a significant decline requires traders to concentrate on selling their stocks. Currently, both the mine stocks and the stocks held by traders are low, and there are no conditions for a trend-based decline. If safety supervision does not ease in the fourth quarter, there is still hope for the market.

企业E

Enterprise E

监管趋严：政府通过用电量、炸药、运量等多维度数据监控，严查隐蔽工作面和超产。前期地方政府自查，目前上级不定期抽查。近期附近地区连续发生多起矿难，有死伤，部分煤矿原本近几日复产被迫推迟至10月份，另外矿难发生后附近煤矿担心检查，生产都十分谨慎。周边有煤矿即将用完今年生产额度(合规产能)四季度面临停产。

Regulatory tightening: The government monitors through multiple dimensions such as electricity consumption, explosives, and transportation volume, strictly investigating hidden working areas and overproduction. In the early stage, local governments conducted self-inspections, while currently, higher authorities conduct irregular spot checks. Recently, multiple mining accidents have occurred in the surrounding areas, resulting in casualties. Some coal mines that were originally scheduled to resume production in the near future have been postponed until October. Additionally, after the mining accidents, nearby coal mines are very cautious in production due to concerns about inspections. The surrounding coal mines are facing production suspension in the fourth quarter as they have reached their annual production quotas (compliant capacity).

政策风向：目前安全政治压力极大，地方政府“谁签字谁担责”，短期内产能难以释放。

Policy direction: Currently, there is an extremely high pressure for security politics. Local governments follow the principle that "whoever signs is responsible", and in the short term, the production capacity is difficult to be released.

企业F

Enterprise F

焦煤：本地规模稍大点的焦化已经开始从港口买煤，目前处于试验阶段，后期可能会进一步提高使用率。蒙煤从7月初开始进山西，海煤(澳煤)从8月初开始进山西，9月份海煤进港口预期环比增量150万吨左右。港口库存高但要拆分，俄煤被动累库=“无效库存”，可交割/可配煤的澳煤等=“有效库存”不高;蒙煤口岸库存很低，长协和招标户合同保守估计已经排到11月底，存在超卖。口岸点价货基本消失，固定价为主，风险向二三线贸易商传导。通关恢复到1200车口岸也难累库，蒙方与中方口岸部门在谈，但暂无结果，中方侧存在控量预期，蒙方想多卖高价，目前看通关回不到1400车。

Coking coal: Larger local coking plants have started purchasing coal from ports. This is currently in the experimental stage and may lead to a further increase in usage rates in the future. Mongolian coal began entering Shanxi in early July, and Australian coal (or Australian coal) began entering Shanxi in early August. It is expected that the volume of Australian coal entering the ports in September will increase by approximately 1.5 million tons compared to the previous month. The port inventories are high but need to be split. Russian coal has been accumulating inventories passively = "ineffective inventory". Australian coal that can be delivered or used as blending coal = "effective inventory" is not high. The inventory at the ports for Mongolian coal is very low. The contracts for long-term agreements and tenders for Chinese parties are conservatively estimated to have been arranged until the end of November. There is an oversupply situation. The spot-priced goods at the ports have largely disappeared. Fixed-price is the main method. The risks are being transmitted to the second and third-tier traders. The customs clearance has returned to 1200 vehicles at the ports, but it is still difficult to accumulate inventory. The Chinese side has expectations of controlling the quantity, while the Mongolian side wants to sell at higher prices. Currently, it seems that the customs clearance will not return to 1400 vehicles.

焦炭：钢厂在焦炭提涨期间已经补过库存，库存紧张度明显缓解，中秋、国庆期间顺势降一降库存，等提降再补库。第六轮提涨能接受，但幅度缩小至50-55元/吨，这是最后一轮提涨。节后(10月中旬)：若铁水下滑，焦炭提降1–2轮概率大，每轮约100–150元/吨。

Coke: During the period of price increase for coke, steel mills have replenished their inventories. The tightness of inventory has significantly eased. During the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays, they reduced their inventory by one cycle. They will replenish the inventory after the price increase and reduction. The sixth round of price increase can be accepted, but the increase range will be reduced to 50-55 yuan/ton. This is the last round of price increase. After the holiday (mid-October): If the iron water price drops, there is a high probability of two to three rounds of price increase reduction, with each round being approximately 100-150 yuan/ton.

铁矿：看95-105美金波动，短期运费上涨支撑价格，95美金以下钢厂会出手补库，钢厂刚补过一波库存，目前有7-8天库存(厂内、在途、港口，30%的长协，70%的现货)。

Iron ore: The price fluctuates between 95-105 US dollars. The increase in short-term freight costs supports the price. Steel mills will purchase stocks again if the price drops below 95 US dollars. The steel mills have just replenished their inventory, and currently they have 7-8 days' worth of stock (on-site, in transit, at ports, 30% of which are long-term contracts and 70% are spot sales).

钢材：本地成本比沿海高100-200元/吨，厂内高炉暂无检修计划，如果亏到现金流厂内会有减产计划，但旺季检修概率小，一般在春节前检修。有多条轧线，20%的线材和棒材，热卷和冷系产品，其中热卷利润相对更好，冷系利润相对最差，平常根据各个轧线利润调整铁水分配，目前综合利润已经处于亏损状态。

Steel: The local cost is 100-200 yuan per ton higher than that in the coastal areas. The blast furnaces in the factory have no maintenance plans at present. If the losses reach the point where cash flow is affected, there will be production reduction plans within the factory. However, the probability of maintenance during the peak season is low, usually it occurs before the Spring Festival. There are multiple rolling lines, including 20% of wire rods and bars, hot rolled and cold rolled products. Among them, the profit of hot rolled products is relatively better, while the profit of cold rolled products is relatively the worst. Usually, the distribution of molten iron is adjusted according to the profits of each rolling line. Currently, the overall profit is already in a loss state.

期货涨需求会好点，期货跌出货变差，目前环比7-8月需求有改善，热卷协议户无库存，螺纹和冷系有库存，7-8月库存压力很大，现在去化不少。

The demand will be better when the futures prices rise. The supply will deteriorate when the futures prices fall. Currently, the demand has improved compared to July and August. The hot-rolled steel contract holders have no inventory, while the rebar and cold-rolled steel have inventory. The inventory pressure was very high in July and August, but a lot has been reduced now.

后市观点：螺纹盘面3000-3200元/吨波动。

Market outlook: The steel coil market will fluctuate between 3000 and 3200 yuan per ton.

企业G

Enterprise G

煤矿超产比较普遍，当地超产较严重。认为督查最严格的时期已结束，中央和省政府都来检查过几次，后期多为县级检查。目前当地停产多于复产，复产煤矿产量回升慢，煤价高，洗选亏钱，矿难后开始停产，后期因利润亏损延迟复产，正在考虑从外地进煤，近期当地煤价开始松动，已有复产计划。

Overproduction in coal mines is quite common, and the situation is more severe in the local area. It is believed that the most stringent period of supervision has ended. Both the central government and the provincial government have conducted several inspections. In the later stages, it was mostly the county-level inspections. Currently, there are more shutdowns than restarts in the local area. The production of the restarted coal mines has recovered slowly, the coal price is high, the washing and sorting process incurs losses, and mine accidents led to shutdowns. Later, due to profit losses, the restart was delayed. Currently, consideration is being given to importing coal from other places. Recently, the local coal price has begun to ease, and there are already plans for restarts.

经济高度依赖煤炭，长期停产引发社会不稳定，需在安全与民生间平衡，最终仍会走向“有序复产”。现货煤价短期见顶，继续大涨难度大，大概率逐步回落，但难回前期低价(因产量永久受限)。

The economy is highly dependent on coal. Long-term production suspension has led to social instability. A balance must be struck between safety and people's livelihoods. Eventually, it will still move towards "recovery and production in an orderly manner". The spot coal price has peaked in the short term and it is difficult for it to continue to rise sharply. It is likely to gradually fall, but it is unlikely to return to the previous low price (as production is permanently restricted).

另多家企业均聊到，此前焦煤价格低，企业不超产就亏本，但矿难后焦煤现货涨幅多在60%-70%，在合规产能内生产也已有利润，企业超产必要性下降。

Many other enterprises also mentioned that previously, the price of coking coal was low, and if enterprises did not increase production, they would suffer losses. However, after the mining accident, the spot price of coking coal rose by 60% to 70%. Even within the compliant production capacity, there was already profit from production. Therefore, the necessity for enterprises to increase production has decreased.