继美伊双方和平谈判于刚刚过去的这个周末破裂之后，美国军队周一正式开始封锁所有试图进出伊朗港口的船只，一场充满风险的新对峙也由此拉开了序幕。

Following the breakdown of the peace talks between the United States and Iran at the end of last weekend, the US military officially began to block all ships attempting to enter or leave Iranian ports on Monday. Thus, a new and risky standoff has begun.

据一名美国高级官员透露，目前已有超过15艘美国军舰就位以支持此次行动。隶属于英国皇家海军的英国海事贸易行动中心向船员发布的一份通告称，针对波斯湾、阿曼湾及阿拉伯海部分海域的伊朗港口和沿海地区，正在实施海上通行限制。

According to a senior US official, more than 15 US warships have already been deployed to support this operation. A notice issued by the British Maritime and Trade Operations Centre, which is affiliated with the Royal Navy of the United Kingdom, stated that maritime passage restrictions are being implemented in certain areas of the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, and the Arabian Sea, including Iranian ports and coastal regions.

不少业内人士表示，如果拥有足够的军舰，美国的封锁行动确实可以震慑许多试图进出伊朗运送石油的油轮。但美军同时也需要做好准备——因为这涉及登船并扣押那些试图冲破封锁的所谓“敌对船只”。多位美国前任及现任官员表示，此举虽然可行，但注定将是一项复杂的行动，需要动用大量的美国军事资源。

Many industry insiders have stated that if the United States has sufficient warships, its blockade operation can indeed deter many oil tankers attempting to transport oil into or out of Iran. However, the US military also needs to be prepared - because this involves boarding and seizing those so-called "hostile vessels" that attempt to break through the blockade. Several former and current US officials have said that although this is feasible, it is destined to be a complex operation that will require the use of a large amount of US military resources.

当地时间13日，一名美国国防官员表示，美国军方目前在中东地区部署了16艘军舰，包括“亚伯拉罕·林肯”号航空母舰，以及11艘驱逐舰、3艘两栖攻击舰和1艘濒海战斗舰。

On the 13th local time, an American defense official stated that the US military has currently deployed 16 warships in the Middle East region, including the "Abraham Lincoln" aircraft carrier, as well as 11 destroyers, 3 amphibious assault ships and 1 littoral combat ship.

官员们表示，将资源和战舰部署在伊朗海岸附近可能会使美国资产易受攻击，因此美国可能会尝试在霍尔木兹海峡的两侧拦截或隔离商船，以防止它们进入或离开伊朗港口。

The officials stated that deploying resources and warships near the Iranian coast might make US assets vulnerable to attack. Therefore, the US might attempt to intercept or isolate merchant ships on both sides of the Hormuz Strait in order to prevent them from entering or leaving Iranian ports.

美国军方在周一发布了更为具体的解释，将封锁开始时间定为北京时间周一晚间10点。该封锁适用于所有“进出伊朗港口和沿海地区的船只”。美国方面表示，未曾停靠伊朗的中立船只不会受到通行阻碍，但可能会被搜查是否载有违禁货物。美国还建议海员在阿曼湾航行或接近霍尔木兹海峡时，应密切关注官方广播并与美国海军联系。

The US military released a more detailed explanation on Monday, setting the start time of the blockade as 10 p.m. Beijing time on Monday. The blockade applies to all "ships entering or leaving Iranian ports and coastal areas". The US side stated that neutral ships that have not docked in Iran will not be hindered in their passage, but they may be searched for any prohibited goods. The US also advised seafarers to closely follow official broadcasts and contact the US Navy when sailing in the Gulf of Oman or approaching the Strait of Hormuz.

根据美方的安排，任何美国军舰均可接近涉嫌违反封锁的油轮，但若船只拒绝配合登船检查，则会由受过专门训练的海军陆战队及特种作战部队实施强行登船行动。

According to the arrangement of the US side, any US warship can approach the oil tanker suspected of violating the blockade. However, if the vessel refuses to cooperate with the boarding inspection, a forced boarding operation will be carried out by specially trained marines and special operations forces.

据海军和中央司令部官员称，美国海军在该地区拥有强大的火力支援封锁行动。其中大部分舰船具备起降直升机以支援登船行动的能力，部分舰船还能将商船引导至特定区域并予以控制。美国还可从陆地空运登船小组至船只——包括从波斯湾沿岸国家出发。

According to officials from the Navy and the Central Command, the US Navy has strong firepower support for the blockade operation in the region. Most of the ships are capable of landing helicopters to assist in boarding operations, and some can guide merchant ships to specific areas and control them. The US can also airlift boarding teams to the ships from the land - including from countries along the Persian Gulf coast.

曾领导美国海军中东部队的退役海军中将Kevin Donegan表示，美国可利用监视工具、公开数据及军事资产，追踪商船离开波斯湾并驶出霍尔木兹海峡的动向。拥有无人机和监视平台的海湾国家也可协助此项行动。

Retired Navy Vice Admiral Kevin Donegan, who once led the US Navy's Middle East fleet, said that the US can use surveillance tools, public data and military assets to track the movements of merchant ships leaving the Persian Gulf and passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Gulf countries with unmanned aircraft and surveillance platforms can also assist in this operation.

美国战略与国际研究中心国防与安全部高级顾问Mark Cancian表示，美国很可能会以类似于去年对委内瑞拉实施封锁的方式来实施此次封锁。在去年的封锁中，美国扣押了数艘船只。“当第一次登船行动发生时，我们会知道更多信息，因为这将告诉我们他们在哪里登船，他们是如何登船的，以及登船后船上会发生什么。”

Mark Cancian, a senior advisor to the Defense and Security Department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in the United States, said that the United States is likely to implement this blockade in a manner similar to the one it imposed on Venezuela last year. During last year's blockade, the United States seized several ships. "When the first boarding operation takes place, we will have more information because it will tell us where they boarded the ships, how they boarded, and what happens on board after boarding."

他表示，美国更有可能在霍尔木兹海峡以东的阿拉伯海拦截船只，而不是在霍尔木兹海峡本身或波斯湾，因为伊朗在波斯湾拥有更大的干预能力。不过，Cancian也指出，如果美国愿意，它也可以在那里扣押船只。

He said that the United States is more likely to intercept ships in the Arabian Sea east of the Strait of Hormuz, rather than in the Strait of Hormuz itself or the Persian Gulf, because Iran has greater intervention capabilities in the Persian Gulf. However, Cancian also pointed out that if the United States so desires, it can also seize ships there.

随着美国在伊朗实际封锁海峡的背景下再度在该地区加上“一把锁”，本周霍尔木兹海峡的具体通行状况也再度成为了外界焦点。

As the United States once again imposed "another lock" in the region against Iran's actual blockade of the strait, the specific passage conditions of the Hormuz Strait have once again become the focus of attention from the outside world this week.

美国总统特朗普13日在社交媒体上曾发文表示，前一天(上周日)，有34艘船只通过了霍尔木兹海峡，这是近段时间以来单日最高通行船只数量。伊朗媒体则对此说法嗤之以鼻，据伊朗塔斯尼姆通讯社14日报道，美国总统特朗普关于霍尔木兹海峡通航情况的说法与实际情况不符。

On the 13th, US President Trump posted on social media that the previous day (last Sunday), 34 ships had passed through the Strait of Hormuz. This was the highest number of ships passing through the strait in recent times. Iranian media, however, scoffed at this claim. According to a report by Iran's Tasnim News Agency on the 14th, US President Trump's statement regarding the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz did not match the actual situation.

根据航运追踪数据显示，霍尔木兹海峡的航运量在周日虽然确实有所回升，但周一再次大幅下滑，市场谨慎情绪在美军实施海上封锁前升温。

According to shipping tracking data, the shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz did indeed increase on Sunday, but it dropped significantly again on Monday. Market caution intensified before the US military implemented the maritime blockade.

数据显示，虽然周日共有19艘船只在霍尔木兹海峡双向通行，为战争初期以来最多，但这一势头在周一逆转。业内统计显示，周一仅观测到4艘船只通行于海峡：一艘液化石油气运输船进入海湾，三艘小型燃料油轮在纽约时间上午10点封锁生效前数小时加速驶离。

The data shows that although a total of 19 ships were traveling in both directions through the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, the highest number since the beginning of the war, this trend reversed on Monday. Industry statistics indicate that only 4 ships were observed passing through the strait on Monday: one liquefied petroleum gas carrier entered the gulf, and three small fuel oil tankers accelerated and left the area just a few hours before the blockade took effect at 10 a.m. New York time.

相关航运人士表示，美国实施封锁可能促使更多船只关闭追踪信号以规避监测，从而使实际通行情况更难掌握。

Relevant shipping industry experts stated that the implementation of the lockdown in the United States might prompt more ships to disable their tracking signals in order to evade monitoring, thereby making it even more difficult to accurately assess the actual traffic situation.

伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队此前已对特朗普的封锁威胁做出回应，称任何试图“以任何借口”接近海峡的军舰都将被视为违反停火协议。

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran had previously responded to Trump's blockade threat, stating that any military vessels attempting to approach the strait "under any pretext" would be regarded as violating the ceasefire agreement.

伊朗还表示，如果其自身的航运枢纽受到威胁，它将瞄准波斯湾和阿曼海的所有港口。前美国海军军官、横须贺亚太研究理事会联合创始人John Bradford表示，“这种新的升级更有可能引发更多的连锁升级，而不是促成和解。”

Iran also stated that if its own shipping hubs are threatened, it will target all ports in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. John Bradford, a former US Navy officer and co-founder of the Yokosuka Asia-Pacific Research Council, said, "This new escalation is more likely to trigger more cascading escalations rather than lead to a resolution."

业内人士指出，目前伊朗的军事力量虽然已严重受损，但该国仍保留着实质性的火力，可以威胁任何试图封锁海峡的船只。据信伊朗仍拥有数千枚弹道导弹，伊斯兰革命卫队的数十艘快速攻击艇也可用于袭击附近的船只。

Industry insiders point out that although Iran's military forces have been severely weakened at present, the country still retains substantial firepower that can pose a threat to any ships attempting to block the strait. It is believed that Iran still possesses thousands of ballistic missiles, and dozens of fast attack boats of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps can also be used to attack nearby ships.

如果伊朗向执行封锁任务的美国舰船开火，或者美国与伊斯兰革命卫队力量在油轮上发生交火，局势可能会升级。特朗普可能会决定重新对伊朗发动大规模或更有限的袭击——这是他最近与高级助手讨论过的举动。

If Iran were to open fire on the US ships conducting the blockade mission, or if there was an exchange of fire between the US and the forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on the oil tankers, the situation could escalate. Trump might decide to launch a large-scale or more limited attack against Iran - this is an action that he has discussed with his senior aides recently.

不过，相关美国高级官员表示，一旦美国开始扣押油轮，伊朗向参与封锁的美国舰船开火的可能性较低，因为他们的防御能力已经严重削弱。

However, relevant senior US officials stated that once the US starts seizing the oil tankers, the likelihood of Iran firing at the US ships involved in the blockade is relatively low, as their defense capabilities have been severely weakened.

伊朗议会议长穆罕默德·巴格尔·加利巴夫周日则在社交媒体上发帖嘲讽特朗普，称“好好享受现在的油价吧。有了所谓的‘封锁’，很快你就会怀念每加仑4-5美元的油价了。”该帖子还附上了一张地图，地图上标出了白宫附近的加油站位置和每加仑的油价。

Iran's parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, posted a tweet on social media on Sunday mocking Trump, saying, "Enjoy the current oil prices. With the so-called 'lockdown', you'll soon miss the $4-5 per gallon prices." The post also included a map showing the locations of gas stations near the White House and the prices per gallon.

业内人士指出，如果美军封锁措施得以成功实施，对高度依赖石油出口的伊朗经济而言，显然将造成极其沉重的打击。

Industry insiders point out that if the US military's blockade measures are successfully implemented, it will undoubtedly deal an extremely heavy blow to Iran's economy, which is highly dependent on oil exports.

过去几周，伊朗石油出口反而从油价上涨中获益，这得益于美国为提振供应而颁布的临时豁免令（该豁免令允许购买此前受制裁的伊朗海上石油）。本月早些时候，此前以低于全球布伦特原油价格出售的伊朗原油，其定价已转为溢价。印度似乎已根据该豁免条款购入了两批伊朗原油——这可能是该国自2019年以来的首次购买。

Over the past few weeks, Iran's oil exports have actually benefited from the rise in oil prices, thanks to the temporary exemption order issued by the United States to boost supply (this exemption allowed the purchase of previously sanctioned Iranian offshore oil). Earlier this month, the pricing of Iranian crude oil, which was previously sold at a price lower than global Brent crude oil, has now changed to a premium. India seems to have purchased two batches of Iranian crude oil under this exemption clause - this might be the country's first purchase since 2019.

石油出口对伊朗至关重要。该国因美以空袭遭受重创，必须投入巨资重建并支撑其饱受摧残的经济。

Oil exports are of vital importance to Iran. The country has been severely damaged by the US and Israeli air strikes and must invest heavily in reconstruction and to sustain its devastated economy.

而对于美国而言，特朗普曾多次试图将中东供应受阻的影响与推广美国石油和天然气产量的努力挂钩，将这场危机描绘成对美国这个主要产油国有利的局面。然而，美国原油并非总是中东原油的完美替代品。对于美国消费者而言，高企的基准油价已经推高了通胀。

For the United States, Trump has repeatedly attempted to link the impact of supply disruptions in the Middle East with efforts to promote the production of American oil and gas, portraying this crisis as a favorable situation for the United States, the major oil-producing country. However, U.S. crude oil is not always a perfect substitute for Middle Eastern crude oil. For American consumers, the high benchmark oil prices have pushed up inflation.

伊朗多年的被制裁史已充分表明，其承受痛苦的能力可能强于美国。随着投资者为封锁导致的进一步供应短缺做准备，油价的飙升也可能进一步打击特朗普的民众支持率。

The long history of sanctions imposed on Iran has clearly demonstrated that it may be more resilient to suffering than the United States. As investors prepare for further supply shortages resulting from the blockade, the soaring oil prices may also further erode Trump's popularity among the public.

而在全球范围内，亚洲此前已承受了这场能源危机的最沉重打击，对霍尔木兹海峡航运的进一步限制将加剧该地区的困境。

Globally, Asia has already borne the brunt of this energy crisis. Further restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will exacerbate the difficulties in this region.

美国此前针对购买受制裁伊朗石油的豁免令，似乎已被此次的封锁措施所否定，这一能源市场供应端的演变堪称急转直下——而那些曾寻求与伊朗达成双边协议的国家，如今可能因顾虑与美国发生冲突，导致其确保燃料供应的选择进一步受限。

The previous exemption order in the US for purchasing oil from sanctioned Iran seems to have been negated by this latest blockade measure. This evolution in the supply side of the energy market has taken an abrupt turn for the worse - and those countries that had sought bilateral agreements with Iran may now be further constrained in their options for ensuring fuel supply due to concerns about potentially engaging in conflicts with the US.

“他们(美国)过于关注伊朗，以至于忽视了自己给世界带来的后果，”Onyx Capital Group董事总经理Jorge Montepeque在接受采访时表示。“而当前痛苦正降临在亚洲，降临在南太平洋，降临在所有依赖石油的地区。”

"They (the United States) have been too focused on Iran, to the extent that they have overlooked the consequences they have brought to the world," Jorge Montepeque, the managing director of Onyx Capital Group, said in an interview. "And the current pain is now hitting Asia, the South Pacific, and all regions that rely on oil."